• Bruno de Landevoisin
    09/21/2014 - 14:52
    Dear Janet; Concerned citizen of the Constitutional Republic of the United States

Bond

Sprout Money's picture

Message from Top Managers: “Prepare for Turmoil”





If the market signs are blurry, your best option is to look at what the top investors are doing.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

BofA Stopped Out Of Bullish 10 Year Treasury Trade: Time To Go Long Again





Last Thursday, as bond yields were cratering and the price on the TYZ4 soaring soaring, we made an explicit cautious observation in "A Bearish Sign For Treasurys?" that the latest incarnation of the immortal muppet-slayer, Tom Stolper, manifesting himself this time as Bank of America's technician MacNeill Curry, decided to go from bearish on the 10 Year as he has been on and off since the start of the year, to bullish. We said that "with the 10Y yield  plunging, BofA's chief technician, which as is widely known is another words for "momentum chaser" who has over the past year been branded as the new coming of the legendary Tom Stolper thanks to the inverse-accuracy of his calls, has changed his tune, to wit: "the trend in yield is lower." If there was something that could make us nervous about being long TSYs, this is it." And almost as if on demand, the 10 Year proceeded to tumble like a downhill rolling bag of bricks in the hours, not days, following this all too obvious top-tick. But even more amusing, moments ago the same MacNeill Curry has flip flopped yet again and in a note, has just announced that BofA has been stopped out of its "long"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

An "Austrian" Bill Gross Discusses Credit Creation





This month's Bill Gross letter, notably shorter than usual, is as close to the bond manager discussing an Austrian economics worldview as we will likely ever see him: in brief, it's all about the credit/money creation, with an emphasis on the use of proceeds of said creation under ZIRP, i.e., malinvestment , or as Gross puts it: "credit growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for economic growth. Economic growth depends on the productive use of credit growth, something that is not occurring."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

In Addition To The Latest Fake Ceasefire, Here Is What Else Happened Overnight





Heading into the North American open, the bulk of the morning’s price action has been provided by news that Ukrainian President Poroshenko said that he reached an agreement with Russia's Putin on a "permanent cease fire" in Eastern Ukraine's Donbass region. This saw an immediate spike higher in European equities with the DAX future rallying and breaking above its 100DMA seen at 9644.50, thus extending earlier gains that stemmed from the strong performance in Asia-Pacific equities, while the e-mini S&P once again printed a fresh record high. However, these moves staged a partial reversal amid comments from Russia’s Putin that he denied that such an agreement had been reached as Russia is not a party to the Ukraine conflict. In stock specific news, Russian exposed Raiffeisen Bank outperforms Europe (+7%) in reaction to the geopolitical developments, while Hugo Boss have underperformed throughout the session following a share placement which came in at the lower end (-5.3%).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Equity Futures Soar To Fresh All-Time Highs On New Ukraine "Ceasefire" Which Is Promptly Refuted By All Sides





The comedic value of developments out of Ukraine, especially when it comes to "de-escalation", truly has no equal. Case in point, events from the past three hours, when we learned that there is a new Ukraine ceasefire, there is no Ukraine ceasefire, Putin is looking for a ceasefire but can't be part to a agreement as he is not "firing", NATO is pushing again, Ukraine demands special treatment, the Ukraine rebels were never even consulted on the latest ceasefure, and so on. End result: futures just hit new all time highs.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Eurozone Could Be A Problem For Stocks





Is it possible, that in globally interconnected economy, the U.S. can stand alone? It certainly seems that the answer to that question is currently "yes" as financial markets hit "new all-time" highs and economic data has rebounded in the second quarter following a sharp Q1 decline. However, as is always the case, the issue of sustainability is most critical.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Back To The Future





Having singularly failed to reform or restructure their dilapidated economies, many governments throughout the West have left it to their central banks to keep a now exhausted credit bubble to inflate further. Unprecedented monetary stimulus and the suppression of interest rates have now boxed both central bankers and many investors into a corner. Bond markets now have no value but could yet get even more delusional in terms of price and yield. Stock markets are looking increasingly irrational relative to the health of their underlying economies. The euro zone looks set to re-enter recession and now expects the ECB to unveil outright quantitative easing. If the West wishes to regain its economic vigour versus Asia, it would do well to remember what made it so culturally and economically exceptional in the first place. We seem to be close to the endgame.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Central Bank Have Set the Stage For a Disaster That Will Make 2008 Look Like a Joke





The Central Bank policies of the last five years have damaged the capital markets to the point that the single most important item is no longer developments in the real world, but how Central banks will respond to said developments.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"One Of The Defining Investment Moments Of The Next Few Years"





"Herein lies our dilemma with bonds. We've been a member of the lower yields for longer camp for a number of years now due to our near-term growth and inflation outlook and our belief that financial repression is rife. However we also think that debt restructuring or inflation will eventually be the only way of successfully reducing debt burdens for many countries with the latter route the most likely. As such whilst bonds are a near-term safe haven they are also likely to be very poor real investments longer term. Timing the big switch in view on this will be one of the defining investment moments of the next few years. Let's hope we're lucky."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 2





  • Ukraine Shifts to Defense Against Russian Incursion (WSJ)
  • U.S. forces carry out operation against al-Shabaab in Somalia (Reuters)
  • Bond Markets Tilt Toward Frankfurt as Draghi Negates Fed (BBG)
  • Another "unexpectedly" - Swiss Economy Unexpectedly Stalls as Euro Area Takes Toll (BBG)
  • Japan's 'Abenomics' feared in trouble as challenges build (Reuters)
  • Germany Imposes Nationwide Ban on Uber's Cab-Hailing Service (WSJ)
  • Japan's 'forward guidance', the GPIF, has "already begun a highly anticipated portfolio reshuffle" (WSJ)
  • Detroit Brings Bankruptcy Plan to Court With Billionaires (BBG)
  • Burger King has maneuvered to cut U.S. tax bill for years (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Futures Levitate To New All Time High As USDJPY Surges Above 105; Gold Slammed





Just when we thought centrally-planned markets could no longer surprise us, here comes last night's superspike in the USDJPY which has moved nearly 100 pips higher in the past few trading days and moments ago crossed 105.000. The reason for the surprise is that while there was no economic news that would justify such a move: certainly not an improving Japanese economy, nor, for that matter, a new and improved collapse, what the move was attributed to was news that Yasuhisa Shiozaki, who has been advocating for the GPIF to reduce allocation to domestic bonds, may be appointed the Health Minister when Abe announces his new cabinet tomorrow: a reshuffle driven by the fact that the failure of Abenomics is starting to anger Japan's voters. In other words, the GPIF continues to be the "forward guidance" gift that keeps on giving, even if the vast majority of its capital reallocation into equities has already long since taken place. As a result of the USDJPY surge, driven by a rumor of a minister appointment, the Nikkei is up+1.2%, which in turned has pushed both Europe and Asia to overnight highs and US equity futures to fresh record highs, with the S&P500 cash now just 40 points away, or about 4-8 trading sessions away from Goldman's revised 2014 year end closing target.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Europe's Fantastic Bond Bubble: How Central Banks Have Unleashed Mindless Speculation





Capitalism gets into deep trouble when the price of financial assets becomes completely disconnected from economic reality and common sense. What ensues is rampant speculation in which financial gamblers careen from one hot money play to the next, leaving the financial system distorted and unstable - a proverbial train wreck waiting to happen. That’s where we are now.

 
EconMatters's picture

Inflation Pressures in Core Food Components





Eating out for the weekend brings home the idea that food and restaurant costs are only going up on the whole... 

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Lock Down Despite Aggressive Plan To Ban Russia From SWIFT, Terrorism & War Risk; Palladium At Multi-Year High Over $900





The 13 year anniversary of the 911 attacks in 2001 looms next week and given developments in recent days and weeks, one must be wary of new attacks in the UK , U.S. and other western nations. The UK has raised the country's terror threat level from substantial to severe, its second highest level. MI5 and MI6 said there was no information to suggest an attack was imminent.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's Special Purpose Tentacle Revealed In Europe's Latest Bank Failure





  • Off balance sheet vehicles?  Check
  • Conflicted bank "research" recommending muppets buy stock while soliciting banking fees from same stock?  Check
  • Hoping to sell debt on to muppets?  Check
  • Chinese corruption? Check
  • State bailout of failed bank? Check
 
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