Bond

Why is the yen falling now and some thoughts about what's next.  

On the surface, Abenomics - the radical unlimited stimulus plan put in place by newly elected Japanese PM Shinzo Abe – appears to be working. The Nikkei is up 68% since July, 2012, the yen has weakened by 30% over the same time frame, and Japanese consumer confidence is up sharply to the highest levels in six years. The theory behind Abenomics is that the rising stock market will create capital, and the falling yen will make Japan’s export-based economy more competitive in global markets, while newly profitable companies will hire more workers. In order for Abenomics to work, four things have to happen (below). Don’t hold your breath. Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. Longer-term, Abenomics is a recipe for disaster - have no illusions about that. But short-term … that’s another matter entirely, and therein lies opportunity.

While, as we recently destroyed here, the current meme is that "bonds are mispriced" due to the Fed and so holding them is an idiot's play as at some point they will normalize (which somehow means equities are a great investment - as they apparently never drop in price). DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach appeared on CNBC this morning laying out a few very obvious (but entirely overlooked by the mainstream) reasons why a 'rise' in interest rates (and the bond price drop implicit in that) is not necessarily positive for most of the equity-type investments currently. We see four reasons why the "bonds bad, stocks good" meme is fundamentally flawed and why a great rotation remains a myth... Gundlach also warned flow-driven equity bulls, "QE effects are in the eighth inning."

Normally the New York Fed would not have to bother itself with such Series 7, 63-registration requiring, "financial advisor"-type things as predicting where the stock market will go, especially when it is its own trading desk that provides the impetus for more than 100% of the current equity rally. However, these are not normal times - they are New Normal. And as a result, Fed economists Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa have penned a "research" paper titled "Are Stocks Cheap?" in which they view the same reflexive "evidence" that Ben Bernanke himself used to answer a question during a recent press conference if he would still be buying stocks at record levels, namely the risk premium. This is what the NYFed's economists say on the matter: "We surveyed banks, we combed the academic literature, we asked economists at central banks. It turns out that most of their models predict that we will enjoy historically high excess returns for the S&P 500 for the next five years."

By the end of next week, the Obama administration will no longer be able to borrow money to fund government operations because Congress has only agreed to extend the government's borrowing authority until May 19. While he has smartly expressed his preference that the most liquid bond market in the world "not default,", Speaker Boehner will take to the lectern this morning at 1045ET to discuss the upcoming "debt prioritization" bill.  As Reuters notes, House Republicans are expected to pass the bill today that would require the Obama administration to prioritize government debt payments and retirement benefits if Congress fails to reach a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The legislation is not expected to go anywhere in the Democratic-controlled Senate and the White House has said it will veto the bill, but what is essentially a tactical maneuver will allow the Republicans, who control the House, to argue they have done their best to avoid a potential U.S. credit default. We are sure the M.A.D. defense card will be played at least once...

It is rather like sitting in the middle of the desert. We have $100 billion of new sand being pumped in by the Fed each month. Our desert doesn't get much wider as defined by new issuance and so one dune is heaped on another, the compression continues and yields, even from here, will decline. Our sand trap is a fabulous world for borrowers and issuers and a miserable world for investors. The general thinking usually stops here but there is more to this story than that. Over a period of time wealth declines as the bonds markets hold five times the assets of the equity markets and so the lack of yield, of income, begins to take its toll on consumer spending, on corporate revenues and then on profits and on the ability of those dependent of savings to maintain their standard of living. The continual flow of money has helped the banks and helped corporate borrowers but it has not filtered down to the savers and, in fact, their position has been lessened by what the Fed has done.

• Einhorn's advice to investors: don't take my advice (Reuters)
• Next: floating dead vegetables: Chinese inflation rises on soaring vegetable prices (FT)
• The scramble for the bottom dollar is on: McDonald's, Wendy's Battle for Value-Centric Customers (WSJ)
• Cheaper iPhone coming after all: Apple supplier Pegatron boosts China workforce by 40 percent in second quarter (Reuters)
• House set to pass tactical Republican debt bill (Reuters)
• Underwriting bonanza: Goldman Said to Earn $500 Million Arranging Malaysia Bond (BBG)
• G7 finance chiefs to discuss bank reform push (Reuters)
• Big Banks Push Back Against Tighter Rules (WSJ)
• University endowments trim holdings in US Treasuries (FT)
• Ex-Pakistan PM's son abducted as Taliban threaten poll (Reuters)
• China Dowry Filled With Gold Signals Gains for Jewelers (BBG)
• As discussed here over a year ago: China inflation data shows central bank policy dilemma (Reuters)

With another listless macro day in the offing, the main event was the previously mentioned Bank of Korea 25 bps rate cut, which coming at a time when everyone else in the world is easing was not too surprising, but was somewhat unexpected in light of persistent inflationary pressures. Either way, the gauntlet at Abenomics has been thrown and any temporary Japanese Yen-driven export gains will likely not persist as it is the quality of products perception (sorry 20th century Toshiba and Sony), that is the primary determinant of end demand, not transitory, FX-driven prices. And now that Korea is set on once again matching Japan in competitiveness, the final piece of the Abenomics unwind puzzle has finally clicked into place.  Elsewhere overnight, China reported consumer price inflation increasing by 2.4%, on expectations of a 2.3% rise, driven by a 4% jump in food costs: hardly the thing of Politburo dreams. Or perhaps the PBOC can just print more pigs, soy and birdflu-free chickens? On the other hand, PPI dropped 2.6% in April, on estimates of a 2.3% decline, as China telegraphs it has the capacity, if needed, to stimulate the economy. This is ironic considering its inflation pressures are externally-driven, and come from the Fed and the BOJ, and soon the BOE and ECB. And thus its economy stagnates while prices are driven higher by hot money flows. What to do?

Wall Street got into the single-family home business about a year ago. The win-win idea is to buy and rent until prices increase enough to make selling profitable. Investors can improve neighborhoods by fixing up vacant or damaged properties and providing lower-cost housing to people who are recovering from a foreclosure. But, as The Sacramento Bee reports, a responsible landlord is not guaranteed, and while no one is bashing renters, experts say it is human nature to care more for where you live when you own. The idea of a long-term home means more attention is paid to its upkeep and more consideration is given to neighbors, but "renters can change the culture of a neighborhood. In West Palm Beach, FL (where landlords are required to get licenses), applications are up from 296 in 2011 to 399 last year with one entity owning 150 'unregistered' homes: "it's a free-for-all, there's no such thing as a community anymore."

The mainstream media was cock-a-hoop to use Warren Buffett's recent diatribe against being a bond buyer (because prices are artificially high due to the Fed creating phony money and at some point the Fed will stop) as more evidence that stocks are the only game in town. TrimTabs' CEO Charles Biderman questions Buffett's seemingly disingenuous one-sided perspective - "stocks are just as vulnerable as bonds to the Fed withdrawing the narcotic known as free money, why does Mr. Buffett say stock prices are reasonable? To me, logic says stocks are just as overpriced as bonds." Biderman's point is that one cannot look at one market without implications for the other, and as we have noted numerous times, the only thing that matters is the flow (not the stock) of the balance sheet expansion. The Fed is buying up the entire US Government deficit and then some, Biderman explains, "that means there is lots of extra cash floating around the financial markets bidding up the prices of not just bonds but stocks as well;" so while we agree with Mr. Buffet that at some point bond prices have to drop significantly, so do stocks.

Who's the lady in the Pic.?

While most comprehend that when buying credit-risky instruments the most critical aspect of return is the spread (or additional compensation over the risk-free rate) which itself is in 'bubble' territory; it is nevertheless spell-binding that the so-called 'High Yield' corporate bond market is now trading with a yield below 5% for the first time on record - a level at which 10 Year Treasuries were trading in July 2007...

The diminishing returns of the Fed's quantitative easing are very evident in the latest WFC results.  

Moments ago the Treasury sold a fresh batch of $24 billion in 10 year bonds (CUSIP: VB3 - remember it: it will promptly be monetized by the Fed in the next few POMOs) in an auction that can at best be described as weak. The When Issued had been trading 1.80% moments before the announcement that the auction priced at a high yield of 1.81%: a 1 bp tail, and quite a bit wider than market levels in the 10 Year seen earlier today. The result surprised the market and pushed the bond complex lower. The internals were not good either: the Bid to Cover was 2.70, the lowest since February, and far below the TTM average of 2.96. Notably, as the chart below shows, the BTC ratio has been declining slowly over the past year. The Indirects took down 33.9%, below the average of 37.07%, Directs took only 16.9%, the lowest since January, leaving Primary Dealers with the lion's share or 49.2%, or well above the past 12 month average of 40%. And since correlation algos are pegged to see any bond weakness as good for stocks (as pretty much everything else too), the weak bond auction was an "trigger" for the algos to send the stock market to fresh all time record highs.

Presented with no comment - because none is needed...