Bond

French Economic Uncertainty Surges To All-Time Highs

With elections looming and expectations for uncertainty to remain elevated, the relative selloff in French bonds could have quite a bit further to go - just take a look at the spread back in 2011/2012.

Frontrunning: February 7

  • Senate to Vote on DeVos Confirmation Amid Fiery Debate (WSJ)
  • Investors Cut Back on Commercial Property (WSJ)
  • Euro, European bonds unnerved by French politics (Reuters)
  • Trump’s Dodd-Frank Do-Over Diverted to Slow Lane (BBG)
  • In GOP, Divide Grows Over Pace of Obamacare Repeal (WSJ)

Fight Among Greek Creditors Over "Explosive" Debt Sends Greek Bond Yields Soaring

Greek 2Y bond yields soared, approaching 10% for the first time since September 2016, as an increasingly bitter fight between the nation’s creditors over its fiscal targets raised concerns it is running out of time to complete yet another review of its bailout program, and even sparked concerns a 4th Greek bailout may be in the offing.

S&P Futures, European Stocks Bounce As Dollar Rises Most In Two Weeks; Gold, Yen Slide

The dollar rebounded from a key support level, strengthening against all major peers, pushing S&P futures higher as European shares rose, led by basic resources and real estate, while Asian stocks fall. Gold fell from its highest level since November as demand for some haven assets ebbed while global bonds declined. Oil dipped, pressured by a stronger dollar.

50% Correction Is Impossible! Really?

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as they have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

– Dr. Irving Fisher, Economist at Yale University 1929

Gross: "Without QE From ECB And BOJ, The U.S. Economy Would Sink Into Recession"

"The ECB and BOJ are buying $150 billion a month of their own bonds and much of that money then flows from 10 basis points JGB's and 45 basis point Bunds into 2.45% U.S. Treasuries.... I would venture a guess that without QE from the ECB and BOJ that 10-year U.S. Treasuries would rather quickly rise to 3.5% and the U.S. economy would sink into recession."

Global Stocks, US Futures Rise Despite Growing Political Tension In Europe

In a relatively quiet session, which may see US traders sleep in a bit after last night's Superbowl thriller, European and Asian shares rose ahead of Mario Draghi’s testimony at the European Parliament, while US equity futures were fractionally higher (up 0.1% to 2,293) after stocks jumped the most in a week, as traders assessed the trajectory for interest rates while scrutinizing every new Trump tweet.

It's Time To Start Worrying About China Again

The central bank on Friday increased the interest rates on reverse repo by 10bp - the last time the PBOC raised OMO rates was more than two years ago in 2014. The PBOC also increased SLF rates, in what some have dubbed "the Most Important Unnoticed Global Event."