Bond

An Unexpected "Biggest Tail Risk" Emerges Within The Investing Community

According to the latest FMS, the biggest tail risk is no longer Renewed China Devaluation, as was the case in July, followed by "a crash in the European bond market." Instead the biggest concern cited by some 22% of respondents in the month of August was "EU disintegration."

Gilts Slide After BOE 15Y+ POMO Closes Without A Glitch

The BOE buyback across the 15Y+ sector saw the offer-cover ratio rise to 2.67x after being uncovered at 0.96x last week. More notably, the bank bought most bonds at a discount of 7p-45p, with just three issues bought at a premium of 1p-9p. As a result of today's successful operation, Gilt futures slid and yields jumped, as the much-favored QE spot on the curve, 15-20Y sector, continued to lead losses.

Tumbling Dollar Sends USDJPY Under 100, Oil Over $46 As Gold Spikes; Futures Flat

Overnight, John Williams' latest uberdovish paper "Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World", which we profiled yesterday, and which suggests lower rates for far longer, made the rounds and has led to a steep 0.8% drop in the Bloomberg Dollar spot Index, which sank to its weakest since June while the yen strengthened 1.2 percent, slipping briefly below 100 against the greenback for the first time since June 24, pushing oil and gold higher, and Asian shares lower.

Peter Schiff Explains How Central Banks Are Choking Productivity

If the cost of money is high, people think carefully about where they want to put their money. They select only the best investments. This helps everyone. When money is cheap, they throw darts against a wall. This is not the best use of societies' scarce resources. Is it any wonder productivity is down?

David Tepper Is "On Guard" As "Central Banks Are Starting To Distort Stock Markets"

David Tepper is now "on guard", according to CNBC's Kate Kelly, who reports that the Appalloosa billionaire suggest investors "should put some money in cash rather than going too short, the source added." However, his concern is that "central bank stimulus, which has distorted bond markets around the world already, may be starting to affect stock markets as well."

"It’s Surreal" - Negative Yielding Debt Rises To Record $13.4 Trillion

“It’s surreal,” said Gregory Peters, senior investment officer at Prudential Fixed Income "Regarding negative yields he added that “It’s clear that central banks are dominating markets. There’s a race to the bottom. Central banks are the main drivers of this, it’s not fundamental."

"Nothing Adds Up"

There’s a new feature to the Anything-Goes-and-Nothing-Matters economy: Nothing-Adds-Up... The fecklessness and stupidity of the elites has been epic, sacrificing everything to maintain the illusion of normality.

Portugal Gaining On Italy In The European Banking "Doom Loop"

Portugal’s doom loop metric has soared over the past two years.  Portuguese banks have been gorging on Portuguese sovereign debt, taking it from 7 percent of total assets to 10 percent - the same level as Spain.  If they continuing loading up at this pace, they will reach Italian levels by 2018.

Frontrunning: August 15

  • China shares hit seven-month high; world yields keep falling (Reuters)
  • Dollar pinned down by easing Fed rate hike expectations (Reuters)
  • Russia says oil market talks with Saudi developing (Reuters)
  • Secret Ledger in Ukraine Lists Cash for Donald Trump’s Campaign Chief (NYT)
  • The No-Pivot Election: Clinton and Trump Make No Policy Concessions (BBG)