Bond

Why A 2% Move In Stocks Feels Like 20%

Everything is 10-times bigger now: a 2% move in stocks feels like 20%. And a 10bp move in bond yields feels like 100bps. “It’s the kind of thing that happened to Alice in Wonderland." But elevated asset prices come at the cost of systemic fragility. Because to suppress volatility requires feeding the beast with ever more stimulus.

Incompetent But Not Weak: "The Fed Doesn't Know Whether To Shit Or Go Blind"

The outlook for the US economy is deteriorating, yet the Fed is trying to raise overnight rates to keep unseen inflation from rising. Success in its strategy could force consumption lower, unemployment higher, and exacerbate real output contraction. The market, however, should not underestimate the Fed’s power based on its apparent incompetence.

Deutsche Warns Of 10% Decline as Market Reaches "Mania" Level

Realized volatility in the US equity markets has been extremely low, and much discussed, but, as Deutsche Bank's David Bianco warns this is "the quiet before the storm." There are five catalysts for increased vol through Autumn but most worrying is the "High P/E, Low VIX" scenario is very risky having reached "mania" levels.

"If Everything's Going So Great, How Come I'm Not?"

Whether it's struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living, a 0% return on savings, working longer hours while real wages stagnate, scrimping to pay back education loans, despairing at the abuses of power in our banking and political systems, or lamenting the loss of nourishing social interaction in our increasingly isolated and digital lifestyle - most "regular" people find their own personal experiences to be at odds with the rosy "Everything is awesome!" narrative trumpeted by our media.

Negative Interest Rates & The War On Cash, Part 3: "Beware The Promoters"

The main promoters of cash elimination in favour of electronic currency are Willem Buiter, Kenneth Rogoff, and Miles Kimball... in order to implement substantially negative interest rates..."If all central bank liabilities were electronic, paying a negative interest on reserves (basically charging a fee) would be trivial. But as long as central banks stand ready to convert electronic deposits to zero-interest paper currency in unlimited amounts, it suddenly becomes very hard to push interest rates below levels of, say, -0.25 to -0.50 percent, certainly not on a sustained basis. Hoarding cash may be inconvenient and risky, but if rates become too negative, it becomes worth it."

"Welcome To Fantasy Land" Peter Schiff Warns Negative Rates Will Kill Growth

"So we have a choice, either we continue down the road of negative rates to Fantasy Land, where central banks own all the stocks and bonds and asset prices always rise, but real wages and average living standards always fall, or we take our chances on a different path that leads to reality, however unpleasant the transition may be. I for one would choose the latter, but it looks like I won’t have much company."

"It's Never Different This Time" PIMCO Warns "The Tides Of Risk Will Flow Eventually"

The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. A pity this notion is misguided, since the market frequently “rings the bell.” It is just that most market participants are not listening. Perhaps they should be listening now.

"Get Ya Popcorn Ready" RBC Says: "Markets Are Paralyzed With Uncertainty" As "Spook Story" Arrives

"So here we go: BoJ ready to commit to go deeper negative rates and experiment with their curve, the Fed is seemingly locked-and-loaded on a hike as global growth rolls over, a deluge of supply into a suddenly wobbly rates backdrop, and a loaded-coil of synthetically low volatility across asset classes…as cross-asset correlations trickle back near multi-year/crisis extremes."

What Happens When The "Fed Model" Breaks Down

"One thing we learnt from Japan is that the equity secular valuation bear market takes many economic cycles to unfold and ends when equities are ?dirt cheap?. US equities did not get dirt cheap in March 2009 at a Shiller PE of 14x - they just got cheap. To be dirt cheap they needed to half again from the 666 level they reached."