"I still shake my head at the stupidity. One of the most overindebted countries in the history of modern finance trading with a 0% thirty year bond... But this week the market decided to test the BoJ’s resolve... The market is finally saying the demand for credit is enough to force the Bank of Japan to buy bonds to keep rates down. And that was the signal I was waiting for. I am shorting JGBs with both fists."
They’ve threatened to throw anyone in jail who’s caught trading bond notes at anything other than the official 1:1 exchange rate. Naturally these threats have only spurred the creation of a black market where Zimbabwe’s bond notes are bought and sold at their real values. Right now the bond notes are trading at 5% to 10% below the US dollar. But this is just the beginning.
European stocks and S&P futures rose modestly ahead of January US payrolls data, along with the dollar, while Asian shares dropped after China returned from a week-long holiday. Bonds slid, oil rose while the JGB intervened in the bond market to prevent a bond rout, in one of two major surprises during the Asian session.
The mainstream media has been carefully crafting the propaganda meme that the Trump administration is inheriting a global economy in “ascension,” when in fact, the opposite is true. Trump enters office at a time of longstanding decline and will likely witness severe and accelerated decline over the course of the next year. The signs are already present, and this fits exactly with the basis for my prediction of the Trump election win - conservative movements are indeed being set up as scapegoats for a global economic crisis that international financiers actually created.
We warned earlier "the market would test the BoJ," and sure enough Kuroda and his 'lost boys' answered the market's question by intervening aggressively (offering to buy an unlimited amount of bonds) to rescue what was a rapidly escalating collapse in Japanese government bonds.
"The problem our nation faces is a serious one. We have now paired a massive speculative bubble with an errant pin that has every prospect of creating disruption. A steep financial retreat was already baked in the cake prior to the election - there are few policies that have the capacity to make the consequences substantially better, but many that could make the outcomes substantially worse."
The reason central bankers are pulling back from their previous "we can do no wrong, we're saving the world" expansion is those policies have failed to bolster the real economy. Even conventional economists who never met a central bank expansion they didn't love are grudgingly conceding that quantitative easing and all the other monetary expansions did little but make the rich richer and everyone else poorer.
Bank of England kept its key interest rate at 0.25%, gilt purchase program at GBP435b, corporate-bond plan at GBP10b as it reiterated that it has limited tolerance to above-target CPI, and some Monetary Policy Committee members had “moved closer to those limits.”
European shares and S&P futures fell amid mixed earnings from corporate heavyweights, while Asian stocks were fractionally higher. The dollar slump continued against all its major peers after the Federal Reserve gave dollar bulls little to be optimistic about. The U.S. currency dropped toward the lowest close since November after the Fed reiterated its intention on Wednesday to lift rates only gradually.