Bond

Frontrunning: July 10

  • World stocks rally, dollar up to two-month high against yen (Reuters)
  • Oil Prices Fall Amid Rising U.S. Production (WSJ)
  • Trump’s ‘America First’ Policy Proves to Be an Immovable Object at G-20 (WSJ)
  • Russia says joint cyber unit with U.S. will take time to set up (Reuters)
  • Senate Health Bill Fails to Pick Up Support After Week of Recess (BBG)

Why One Trader Thinks "Silver's Plunge Is Nearing Completion"

Silver is plunging and it’s even worse than it first appears when you consider that the dollar is having a bad year. In euro terms, the metal is down 24% from its April peak. Still, there are reasons to argue that the shift lower is mostly complete.

SocGen Asks: "Is It Groundhog Day, Or Goldilocks And The Three Bears?"

"Weak productivity and weak real wage growth leave the economy in an endless winter of mediocrity, while solid employment growth without inflation is the ‘not to cold, not too warm’ mix that keeps the Fed normalising policy ever so slowly, equity indices marching ever higher and the economic cycle able to trundle on with no recession in sight."

Global Stocks Rise Amid Strong Economic Data; Yen Drops To 2 Month Low As Oil Resumes Slide

In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.

"It's Too Late" - 7 Signs Australia Can't Avoid Economic Apocalypse

"Millions of ordinary, financially unprepared, Australians are now at the mercy of the international markets and foreign policy makers... Unfortunately, the window for taking pre-emptive action with an orderly unwinding of structural macroeconomic imbalances has now closed..."

The Hidden State Of Money: Bonds, Bias, & Bullshit

"...the bond market is one of the few legitimate windows into hidden monetary conditions, and what it has said about the 21st century isn’t what economists and policymakers want to hear. The conundrum and its current revival are just that simple."

Visualizing "Conundrum 2.0": This Is What The Fed Is Missing

As the latest FOMC minutes demonstrated, the current period of especially loose financial conditions - despite a projected 3 rate hikes in 2017 - is confusing the Fed. Deutsche Bank has called this "Conundrum 2.0", and explains what is going on in the following chart...