Bernanke drove interest down to zero, where it has stayed for over 6 years. In his rationalization, he concedes an importantg point that undermines his argument (and the Fed).
Hedge Fund Legend Julian Robertson Warns Of A "Complete Explosion" Unless Fed Contains "Boiling, Bubble" MarketSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/06/2015 23:28 -0400
According to hedge fund legend Julian Robertson, the Fed must act and hike rates soon because “the economy warrants it and I think [the Fed is] not crazy enough just to let this thing boil over into complete explosion. I am looking at a bubble that is almost sure to pop at some time and I don't know when it's going to happen, but I know it's going to happen. The bigger this bubble gets, the bigger the burst." What happens then: "I don't think it's at all ridiculous to think of a selloff like we saw in 2008."
To answer an age-old question, namely who is smarter - credit or equity investors, and specifically, whether credit investors know something that equity investors do not, Citi examined whether credit or equity is leading the price action in the energy sector. It found that the credit and equity markets are responding to energy headlines at the same pace, in other words under the New Paranormal, both equity and credit investors have become equally dumb.
History is on the market’s side, says DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach, noting the Fed’s forecast for how much benchmark rates will rise is still too high, even after central bankers lowered their estimates last month. BlackRock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg says the bond market’s too complacent and is poised for a correction, claiming The Fed has "a tremendous ability" to send bond yields higher. But as Bloomberg reports, "if the burden of proof is on anybody, it’s on the Fed," and for now, as Gundlach exclaims, The Fed has "been wrong for so long," that their forecasts have been literally of no value, "the market’s pricing has been closer."
- Political Battle Ramps Up Over Iran Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
- Greece moves to quell default fears, pledges to meet 'all obligations' (Reuters)
- Isolated Greece pivots east to Russia, China and Iran. But will it work? (Telegraph)
- Frustrated officials want Greek premier to ditch Syriza far left (FT)
- Greek political unrest and deepening debt crisis fuel talk of snap election (Guardian)
- Rand Paul’s Challenge: Charting His Own Course (WSJ)
- In Greenspan Conundrum Redux, Odds Are on Bond Traders’ Side (BBG)
- Yemen's Aden suffers amid clashes, aid deliveries delayed (Reuters)
- Record Gasoline Output to Curb Biggest U.S. Oil Glut in 85 Years (BBG)
The higher financial markets rise, the harder they fall. It would be one thing if stocks were soaring because the U.S. economy as a whole was doing extremely well. But we all know that isn’t true. The warning signs are there – if you are willing to look at them.
With the Fed supposedly steeling itself at last to remove a little of its emergency ‘accommodation’, it has suddenly become fashionable to warn of the awful parallels with 1937 as an excuse The Fed must not act today. We strongly refute the analogy. Instead, the real Ghost of ’37 takes the form of mean-spirited and, counter-productive 'pitchfork populism' politics and the spectre should not be conjured up to excuse the central bank from further delaying its overdue embarkation on the long road back to normality and policy minimalism.
Following Thursday's H.4.1 update by the Fed, is that, inexplicably, in the week ended April 1, the amount of Treasurys held in custody by the Fed jumped by the most ever, or $63 billion in one week, to $2.963 trillion.
Even before the disappointing US jobs data, we anticipated a downside correction in the dollar after a sharp advance in Q1.
Put another way, the financial landscape is now so screwed up by the Central Planners, that investors are actually INCINERATING their money by lending it to Governments.
Breaking the Definintion of Money and Inhibiting Seigniorage (Money Printing) with Asset Backed BitcoinSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 04/03/2015 13:01 -0400
Taking the gold-backed dollar into the next millenium and imbuing it with all of the attributes of the Bitcoin blockchain.
Uh-oh... the payrolls "bad news" does not appear for now to be bad enough to prompt a "good news" buying mania as perhaps - just perhaps - the market is coming around to the total farce of smoke and mirrors of lower rates and QE doing anything for the real economy is being exposed... Dow futures are down 90 points, TSY yields down 7-8bps and USD weakness spreads as carry trades are unwound en masse.
- Iranians celebrate, Obama hails 'historic' nuclear framework (Reuters)
- Iran Nuclear Accord Hailed as Landmark After Marathon Talks (BBG)
- Two New York City women accused of planning 'terrorist attack' (Reuters)
- Cyprus Lifts Capital Controls Two Years After Deposits Bail-In (BBG)
- Jury Hits Chrysler With $150 Million Penalty in Boy’s Death (WSJ)
- Greece says ready to make IMF payment on April 9 (Reuters)
- Germanwings Co-Pilot Set Plane to Go Faster Before Crash (BBG)
- IBM hire advisers to deal with restless investors - sources (Reuters)
Back in early 2007, just as the first cracks of the bursting housing and credit bubble were becoming visible, one of the primary harbingers of impending doom was banks slowly but surely yanking availability (aka dry powder) under secured revolving credit facilities to companies across America. This, in effect, was the first snowflake in what would ultimately become the lack of liquidity avalanche that swept away AIG and unleashed the biggest bailout of capitalism in history. Back then, analysts had a pet name for banks calling CFOs and telling them "so sorry, but your secured credit availability has been cut by 50%, 75% or worse" - revolver raids. Well, the infamous revolver raids are back.
Greece officially runs out of cash on April 9 according to Reuters, citing Eurozone officials, and with interest payments due on the 17th and the 20th, and with €2.4 billion in t-bills coming due in two weeks, BofAML outlines the end game.