Bond

2016 - A Year Of Trading Dangerously

If 2016 taught traders anything, it was that old norms were useless and the concept of the market as a discounting mechanism (as opposed to an algo-driven headline-reacting maelstrom of manias) is lost forever. This flipping of reality is nowhere more evident in the topsy turvy shifts in risk expectations across global asset classes - where 'safe' is now riskiest and 'riskiest' is now safe.

Italy's Insolvent Monte Paschi To Issue €15 Billion In Debt

Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI), which is being bailed out by the state, plans to issue 15 billion euros ($15.8 billion) of debt next year to restore liquidity and boost investor confidence, several newspapers said on Friday.

Amazon & Alibaba Are The World's Most Crowded Trades

While everyone in the world appears convinced that (and positioned for) bond yields go higher, stocks go higher, gold goes lower, and risk has been vanquished, UBS notes that the world's largest, most active overweight crowded trade is in Amazon.com stock (followed cloesly by UnitedHealth.

3 Things: Records Are Records For A Reason

First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is the point at which previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.  The charts below suggest that current levels should be a sign of caution rather than exuberance.

Three Mini-Bubbles Are Bursting

The world has gotten so used to ultra-low interest rates that even economists and money managers seem to be shocked by what happens when rates start creeping back towards normal levels. Some of the mini-bubbles that formed in an essentially free-money environment are now starting to leak.

10 Reasons Trump Won't Lead A Nuclear Renaissance

Donald Trump in the White House and Theresa May in 10 Downing Street. They will open the door to more nuclear spending, no doubt. But, despite all the post-election industry euphoria, should we anticipate a full renaissance for U.S. commercial nuclear power?

US Selloff Spooks Thinly Traded Global Markets Sending Stocks, Yields, Dollar Lower

One day after the biggest drop in US stocks in two months, global stocks struggled as they tried to close out 2016 on a positive note. The dollar dropped the most in two weeks, sliding alongside bond yields, while oil retreated from its highest close in 17 months. European stocks slid from a 2016 peak on renewed concerns about Italian banks.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

Will Investors Get 'Hustled' By The Pros In 2017?

If you think you’re hearing a wee bit of a mixed message emanating from households and businesses, you’re not losing your marbles. If the stars don’t align perfectly, if the sequel doesn’t best the original, smaller investors might want to wise up to the fact that they’re being hustled by the equivalent of professional gamblers.