Bond

50% Correction Is Impossible! Really?

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as they have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."

– Dr. Irving Fisher, Economist at Yale University 1929

Gross: "Without QE From ECB And BOJ, The U.S. Economy Would Sink Into Recession"

"The ECB and BOJ are buying $150 billion a month of their own bonds and much of that money then flows from 10 basis points JGB's and 45 basis point Bunds into 2.45% U.S. Treasuries.... I would venture a guess that without QE from the ECB and BOJ that 10-year U.S. Treasuries would rather quickly rise to 3.5% and the U.S. economy would sink into recession."

Global Stocks, US Futures Rise Despite Growing Political Tension In Europe

In a relatively quiet session, which may see US traders sleep in a bit after last night's Superbowl thriller, European and Asian shares rose ahead of Mario Draghi’s testimony at the European Parliament, while US equity futures were fractionally higher (up 0.1% to 2,293) after stocks jumped the most in a week, as traders assessed the trajectory for interest rates while scrutinizing every new Trump tweet.

It's Time To Start Worrying About China Again

The central bank on Friday increased the interest rates on reverse repo by 10bp - the last time the PBOC raised OMO rates was more than two years ago in 2014. The PBOC also increased SLF rates, in what some have dubbed "the Most Important Unnoticed Global Event."

Carlson Capital: Border Adjustment Tax Would Lead To "Global Depression"

"If the border adjustment mechanism is implemented as proposed we think it will cause a global depression and a major equity market decline. It is still unclear whether it will happen but at the very least we expect that US trade policy will put downward pressure on global growth. When this becomes apparent commodities will correct meaningfully and we will reinvest in inflation beneficiaries."

Japan - It's Finally Happening

"I still shake my head at the stupidity. One of the most overindebted countries in the history of modern finance trading with a 0% thirty year bond... But this week the market decided to test the BoJ’s resolve... The market is finally saying the demand for credit is enough to force the Bank of Japan to buy bonds to keep rates down. And that was the signal I was waiting for. I am shorting JGBs with both fists."