GoldCore's picture

Gold forecasting is a mugs game at the best of times but given the uncertain geo-political situation, the fragile banking system and the very strong fundamentals for gold, it is hard to argue with Barnabas Gan of OCBC  or BMI. Gold should be meaningfully higher in the coming months and into 2017 as investors diversify into gold. Or rather we are likely to see dollars, euros, pounds and other fiat currencies continue to be devalued versus gold.

Why The Feds Will Lose Their War On The Markets

For now, the war serves its real purpose: to increase the power and wealth of the Deep State insiders. But it is a war that the feds will ultimately lose. Trying to suppress markets is like putting a giant cork in the mouth of a volcano. It doesn’t stop the eruption; it just makes it more violent.

As Gold Crashes, Gartman Has A Theory What Is Behind It

"Tuesday’s sell-off did look like liquidation rather than fundamentally warranted selling. This view is further supported by the fact that the open interest in the COMEX futures has fallen by more than 4% this week, suggestive strongly of forced liquidation and a throwing up of the hands… and of the stuff in one’s stomach."

What Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Told The New York Fed

  • this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth
  • the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward
  • the risks are asymmetric to the downside
  • the impatience with economic stagnation, especially among middle and lower income earners, is leading to dangerous populism and nationalism.

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises

For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures largely rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."

The Noose Is Tightening Quickly On The Global Economy

At bottom, it is not central bank stimulus and intervention alone that drives equities and bond markets; it is the naive faith and willful ignorance of average market participants.  There is a problem with this kind of economic model, however.  Reality is never kept in check indefinitely.  Fiscal truths will be exposed, one way or another.

Bond Yields, Dollar Spike As 'Survey' Data Sends Nov Rate Hike Odds To Record Highs

"Soft" survey data from ISM appears to have trumped "hard" data from construction spending and factory orders, juicing expectations for a rate-hike in November to around 30% - the highest since The Fed began its so-called normalization cycle. The USD Index and bond yields are jumping on the news, stocks are unclear, and silver and gold are slipping further.

Frontrunning: October 5

  • ECB 'taper' talk hits stocks, sterling hits 31-year low (Reuters)
  • Crude Rises to Three-Month High After U.S. Stockpiles Plunge (BBG)
  • Gross Says He Shortened Duration on Europe After Taper News (BBG)
  • Chicago Fed's Evans 'fine' with December hike if data stays firm (Reuters)
  • Euro zone business growth at 21-month low in September (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Brings Too-Big-to-Fail Quandary Home to Merkel (BBG)