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Citi Warns Of Volatility Surge As Its Macro Risk Index Crashes Near Record Lows

A sixth consecutive monthly decline in risk aversion has taken our Macro Risk Index to extreme lows. Readings below last Friday’s 4.1% have only been observed on 31 days since 1997. Citi notes that comparable low levels of risk aversion have historically been followed by higher volatility, stronger USD, higher bond prices and weak performance of global equities.

Macron Victory Leads To "Risk Macr-Off" In Europe, Poor China Trade Data Doesn't Help

It was supposed to be Risk Macr-ON after Emmanuel Macron's avalanche victory in Sunday's French presidential elections; instead as some banks cautioned and as we showed early in the overnight session, the market reaction has been the opposite with the victory fully priced in and especially in the European currencies and stocks, as well as S&P futures, we have seen a modest episode of Risk Macr-Off.

Equity Outflows Surge As Stocks Limp To Record High

After the quietest 8 days in S&P history since 1964, the broad market index managed to limp quietly to a new record close on Friday after a very mixed payrolls print. However, despite the volumeless spike to record highs, it appears the week's dismal data and disappointing earnings left investors unimpressed as S&P ETF outflows surged to their biggest since January 2016.

A Problem Emerges: Central Banks Injected A Record $1 Trillion In 2017... It's Not Enough

Having accelerated for four straight quarters from 2015q4 to a local peak of +5.0 percent in 20167q4, q1 saw the first slowing in global liquidity to a year over year growth rate of just 2.23 percent. In absolute terms it was $29.5 trillion, almost unchanged from 2016q3. This means that even a record $1 trillion in central bank liquidity is no longer enough.

Why Charles Gave Expects "Total Mayhem" In France Even If Macron Is Elected

"If Macron is elected, as I already said, I'm not sure it's not going to be a triumphant election. So I'm not sure they will have that much legitimacy at first. And second thing is that just after, we have the election for the French Parliament. And then it's going to be a total mayhem." - Charles Gave

"What Will Apple Acquire": Here Are The Seven Most Likely Targets

With Apple's cash hoard overflowing at over $250 billion, and with shareholders increasingly clamoring for corporate acquisitions, Citi has Identified seven potential M&A targets for Tim Cook: three are media firms: Netflix, Disney and Hulu. Three are video game developers: Activision, Electronic Arts and Take-Two. And, one is an auto maker: Tesla.

Oil Fireworks Unsettle Global Markets Ahead Of Payrolls Report

With all eyes on crude, following last night's mini flash crash which sent WTI lower by 3% from just above $45 to under $43 in under 10 minutes, equity markets, generally quiet overnight, have taken on a secondary importance ahead of today's key risk event, the April payrolls report. In global equities, Asian and European stocks are lower, while S&P futures are little changed.

Saudi Power Struggle Could Destabilize The Entire Middle East

Political instability in Saudi Arabia is growing as King Salman bin Abdulaziz begins to overhaul the Saudi government, putting a long list of family members into positions of influence while increasing the power of his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. These actions have the potential to lead to a direct conflict with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef. The expected internal power collision, predicted by many analysts, finally seems to be heating up.