Bond

It's Different Today (For Now)

VIX is surging off an ovenight 12 handle, USDJPY and bond yields are tumbling to the lows of the day and US equity futures, while up, have given back the overnight exuberance gains... something's different today

Toyota Issues Bond At A 0.001% Coupon, Japan's Lowest Ever

Overnight a Toyota Motor unit sold yen bonds with the lowest coupon ever for a Japanese company. Toyota Finance Corp issued 20 billion yen ($186 million) of notes at a yield of 0.001%, according to a filing with the nation’s Finance Ministry. That’s the lowest coupon ever for a regular bond by a domestic company that isn’t backed by the government

Bernanke Blew It Big-Time: He Should Have Raised Rates Three Years Ago

It is now painfully obvious that Ben Bernanke blew it big-time by not raising rates three years ago when the economy and markets enjoyed tailwinds. The former Federal Reserve chairperson, who has claimed the mantle of savior of the global economy, foolishly kept rates at zero until tailwinds turned to headwinds, at which point he handed Janet Yellen the unenviable task of raising rates as the headwinds are strengthening.

S&P Nears All Time High, Global Stocks Rally As Dovish Yellen Unleashes Animal Spirits

Stock whisperer Yellen said all the right things yesterday, when she sounded more optimistic than pessimistic on the economy but while the economy is "strong" it is most likely not strong enough to weather a rate hike in the immediate future. As a result, the S&P 500 climbed toward a record on Monday (and continued rising overnight) after Yellen said she expects to raise interest rates only gradually and held off from specifying any timeframe, a shift from her May 27 stance that a move was probable “in the coming months.” This was interpreted that both a June and July rate hike are now off the table, with September odds rising modestly.

Developed World Bond Yields Plunge To Record Lows

With the plunge in rate-hike odds and fears over Brexit, it appears the safety of global developed market bonds is sought after as Bloomberg's Developed World Bond yield slumps to just 62bps - a record low. Yields are moving opposite to what economist expected (and have been expecting since the fall of 2011 when Ben Bernanke broke the capital markets).

Confused "Dovish-Hawk" Yellen Sends Stocks, Dollar, & Bond Yields Lower

Shrugging off the weakness in jobs as 'transitory' one can't help but get a hawkish feeling from Yellen's speech, but it appears the FX market disagrees (as the US Dollar is leaking lower). Bond yields are also fading back lower and so are stocks... Once again Fed communications policy wins - baffle e'm with bullshit.

JPM Still Hates The Market Rally: Here Are Its Reasons

In the past month, not a day has passed without some major sellside firm (yes, that also now includes traditional bull Goldman Sachs) releasing its bearish take on deteriorating fundamentals, and urging clients to not only not buy the rally but sell into it (and as both retail and "smart money" flows indicate, this advice ha been heeded). Today it's JPM's turn. In the latest note is out of JPM's Mislav Matejka, the equity strategist presents five reasons why "upside for stocks is limited" due to numerous reasons but mostly because "global activity momentum is failing to pick up."

Futures Flat Following Friday's Jobs Fiasco: All Eyes On Yellen Again

Every ugly jobs report has a silver lining, and sure enough following Friday's disastrous jobs report, global mining and energy companies rallied alongside commodities after the jobs data crushed speculation the Fed would raise interest rates this month.  “The disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday means that a summer Fed rate hike is off the table,” said Jens Pedersen, a commodities analyst at Danske Bank. “That has reversed the upwards trend in the dollar, supporting commodities on a broader basis. The market will look for confirmation in Yellen’s speech later today.”

Goldman Finds That China's Debt Is Far Greater Than Anyone Thought

"The trend of China’s leverage has probably deteriorated faster than we previously thought... Compared to our previous estimates, the experience in 2015 suggests that the economy’s dependence on credit has deepened significantly and that it likely needs sizeable flow of credit on a persistent basis to maintain a stable level of growth...Such a scale of deterioration certainly increases our concerns about China’s underlying credit problems and sustainability risk. The possibility that there is such a large amount of shadow lending going on in the system... underscores the lack of visibility on where potential financial stress points may lie and how a possible contagion may play out."

Bank Of Japan Board Member Warns Of "2003 Shock" Historic Bond Market Collapse

In a somewhat shocking break from the age-old tradition of lying and obfuscation, Bank of Japan policy board member Takehiro Sato raised significant concerns about global financial stability in a speech last week. In addition to raising concerns about Japanese economic fragility, Sato warned that due to the impact of negative interest rates, he "detected a vulnerability similar to that seen before the so-called VaR (Value at Risk) shock in 2003."

"Rising" Rates Hit New Lows

Despite ubiquitous calls and expectations for rising interest rates, yields on the long bond closed the week at a 52-week low.