DVA

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Frontrunning: November 15





  • China to Ease One-Child Policy (WSJ), China announces major economic and social reforms (Reuters)
  • Consumers line up for launch of PlayStation 4 (USAToday)
  • Trust frays between Obama, Democrats (Politico)
  • Yellen Stands by Fed Strategy  (Hilsenrath)
  • Hero to zero? Philippine president feels typhoon backlash (Reuters)
  • Brussels warns Spain and Italy on budgets (FT)
  • Moody’s Downgrades Four U.S. Banks on Federal Support Review  (BBG)
  • CIA's Financial Spying Bags Data on Americans (WSJ)
  • Germany Digs In Against Risk Sharing in EU Bank-Failure Plan (BBG)
  • Bill Gates wants Norway's $800 billion fund to spend more in Africa, Asia (RTRS)
 
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Complete Hedge Fund Q3 13F Holdings And Position Changes Summary





Here is a summary of the key stock additions, sales, initiations and liquidations conducted by the most prominent US hedge funds in the third quarter.

 
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Frontrunning: November 6





  • Christie Sets Himself Up for Run in 2016 (WSJ)
  • De Blasio Elected Next New York City Mayor in Landslide (WSJ)
  • Hilsenrath: Fed Study: Rate Peg Off Mark (WSJ)
  • MF Global Customers Will Recover All They Lost (NYT) - amazing what happens when you look under the rug
  • Virginia, Alabama Voter Choices Show Tea Party Declining (BBG)
  • Explosions kill 1, injure 8 in north China city (Reuters)
  • Toyota boosts full-year guidance as weak yen drives revenues (FT)
  • Starbucks wants to recruit 10,000 vets, spouses to its ranks (Reuters)
  • U.S. Economy Slack Justifies Stimulus, Top Fed Staff Papers Show (BBG)
  • Israel set to become major gas exporter (FT)
 
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Citi Misses Across The Board On Plunge In Mortgage Banking, Trading Revenues Despite $675MM Reserve Release





First we had JPM confirming what we all knew about the third quarter: it was a disaster for anyone who originates mortgages, whose balance sheet relies on Net Interest Margin, and whose income statement is dependent on trading volumes. Now, it is Citi's turn. Moments ago the bank reported uberadjusted EPS of $1.02 missing expectations of $1.04, unchanged from a year ago, and revenues, ex CVA/DVA, of $18.2 billion, down 5% from Q3 2012, and missing expectations $18.71 billion, by over $500 million. Citi EPS also included the now traditional fudge factor of $675MM in loan loss reserve releases, although well below the $1.502BN from a year ago, offset by $204MM in benefit and claims provisions and some $635MM in incremental mortgage charge offs.

 
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JPMorgan Warns: Increasing Rates Have "Reduced The Remaining Refinance Opportunity By More Than 50%"





About an hour ago, Bank of America served the latest indication that the US housing "recovery" (also known as the fourth consecutive dead cat bounce of the cheap credit policy-driven housing market in the past five years) may be on its last breath. Namely, the bank announced that it will eliminate about 2,100 jobs and shutter 16 mortgage offices as rising interest rates weaken loan demand, said two people with direct knowledge of the plans and reported by Bloomberg. In some ways this may be non-news: previously we reported, using a Goldman analysis, that up to 60% of all home purchases in recent months have been, which of course shows just how hollow the "recovery" has been for the common American for whom the average home has once again become unaffordable. However, judging by an update presentation given earlier today by the CFO of none other than JP "fortress balance sheet" Morgan, things are rapidly going from bad to worse for the banking industry as a result of the souring mortgage market for which, absent prop trading, loan origination is the primary bread and butter.

 
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Frontrunning: August 12





  • Solyndra Cola: California aims to 'bottle sunlight' in energy storage push (Reuters)
  • Ackman may sues himself after all - Penney Board Assails Director William Ackman, Considered 'Rogue' After Releasing Deliberations (WSJ)
  • CFTC subpoenas metals warehousing firm as inquiry heats up (Reuters)
  • Obama Plan to Revamp NSA Faces Obstacles (WSJ)
  • Japan growth slows in second quarter, adds to sales tax uncertainty (Reuters)
  • China Urbanization to Hit Roadblocks Amid Local Opposition (BBG)
  • Parents Losing Jobs a Hidden Cost to U.S. Head Start Budget Cuts (BBG)
  • US seeks better access to Africa as part of trade pact review (FT)
  • Singapore Cuts Trade Outlook as China Slowdown Caps Recovery (BBG)
  • White House Sifts Fiscal Ideas With Band of Senators (WSJ)
  • Spain may ask United Nations for support over Gibraltar (Reuters)
  • Michigan Safety Net for Boomers Frays on Bankrupt Detroit (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: August 7





  • Libor Settlements Said to Ease CFTC’s Path in Rate-Swaps Probe (BBG)
  • Manhattan Homes Under $3 Million Never Harder to Buy (BBG)
  • Just two years late: Abe Pledges Government Help to Stem Fukushima Water Leaks (BBG)
  • Chesapeake drops energy leases in fracking-shy New York (Reuters)
  • Hedge Fund Magnetar Won't Face Charges Tied to Mortgages (WSJ)
  • U.S. envoy leaves Cairo after talks declared over (Reuters)
  • Credit-Crisis Oracle Rajan to Head India’s Central Bank (BBG)
  • Bank of England Changes Policy Tack (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: July 16





  • India Joins Brazil to China in Efforts to Tighten Liquidity (BBG)
  • Seven dead as police and protesters clash in Egypt (Reuters)
  • U.S. senators fail to cut deal, head for showdown on filibuster (Reuters)
  • Gasoline Tankers Beating Crude for First Time on Record (BBG)
  • Smithfield's China bidders plan Hong Kong IPO after deal (Reuters)
  • Bitcoin ETF plan struggles to find support (FT)
  • Big Home Builders Gobble Up Rivals Starved for Cash (WSJ)
  • Putin wants Snowden to go, but asylum not ruled out (Reuters)
  • Zimmerman's lawyer calls prosecutors 'disgrace' to profession (Reuters)
  • McDonald’s to bring Big Mac to Vietnam (FT)
  • Korean Pilots Avoided Manual Flying, Former Trainers Say (BBG)
 
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Stocks Maintain Zero Volume Hover Mode Ahead Of Bernanke Speech





Fear not US: with a Q2 GDP of under 1% now all but assured, and with all economic data reporting now a global bizarro day farce, you will have a chance to take the torch from Europe in the ugliest girl category, and push the S&P to a new record intraday high today following what should be assured epic misses in the Industrial Production print (exp. +0.3%), Cap Utilization and the NAHB housing market index which is set to tumble now that any retail demand for housing was promptly killed following the recent spike in rates. In addition to a relatively lite economic docket, we get the all systematically important hedge fund, Goldman Sachs, reporting which is expected to announce a 21% q/q drop in revenues, led by lower gains in Investment Lending (i.e. prop), offset by 12% drop in operating expenses. Of course, nothing fundamental actually matters as markets continue to be on ultra low-volume, "drift higher" autopilot until tomorrow's Ben Bernanke semi-annual muppet show  in Congress, when he is expected to refill the hopium trough once more and finally send the S&P above 1700 on central planning.

 
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S&P Going For 6 Ouf Of 6





When Bloomberg blasts headlines like this: S&P FUTURES UP 1PT, AT SESSION HIGH, ERASE EARLIER 3.4PT DROP,  you know Bernanke hasn't spoken in over 24 hours if a 4 point swing is headline worthy. That said, the exhausted S&P ramp is now going for the 6th consecutive session as all the losses since the June FOMC meeting have now been erased, the S&P is making constant all time highs, and seemingly the Fed's message on tapering and communication has been clarified. The message being that the Fed is tapering its monthly purchases but short-term rates aren't being lifted. Sadly, the market's first reaction was the right one but the herd of cats has once again been herded by the trading desk at Liberty 33.

 
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How The "Taper Tantrum" Cost US Banks $25 Billion In Q2 Net Income





Despite best effort to immunize banks from rate swings and debt MTM risk, a substantial amount of duration exposure has remained with the glorified hedge funds known as FDIC-insured bank holdings companies under the designation of “Available For Sale” (AFS) or those which due to their explicit short-term trading fate, would have to be subject to mark to market moves. It is the bottom line impact of these securities that threatens to crush bank earnings in the just concluded second quarter by an amount that could be as large as $25 (or more) billion.

 
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Frontrunning: May 16





  • As scandals mount, White House springs into damage control (Reuters)
  • Glencore Xstrata chairman ousted in surprise coup (Reuters), former BP CEO Tony Hayward appointed as interim chairman (WSJ)
  • JPMorgan Chase asks Bloomberg for data records (Telegraph)
  • Platts Retains Energy Trader Confidence Amid Price-Fix Probe (BBG)
  • Syrian Internet service comes back online (PCWorld)
  • Japan Q1 growth hits 3.5% on Abe impact although fall in business investment clouds optimism for recovery (FT)
  • Soros Joins Gold-Stake Cuts Before Bear Market Drop (BBG)
  • Factory Ceiling Collapses in Cambodia (WSJ)
  • Sony’s $100 Billion Lost Decade Supports Loeb Breakup (BBG)
  • Snags await favourite for Federal Reserve job (FT)
  • James Bond’s Pinewood Turned Down on $300 Million Plan (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 8





  • Pentagon Plans for the Worst in Syria (WSJ)
  • Russia and US agree to Syria conference after Moscow talks (FT)
  • Hedge Funds Rush Into Debt Trading With $108 Billion (BBG)
  • Detroit is the new "deep value" - Hedge funds in search of distress take a look at Detroit (Reuters)
  • Commodities hedge funds suffer weak first quarter (FT)
  • But... but... Abenomics - Toshiba posts 62% decline in Q1 net profit (WSJ)
  • Americans Are Borrowing Again but Still Less Than Before Freeze (WSJ)
  • Man Utd announce Alex Ferguson to retire (FT)
  • Asmussen Says ECB Discussed ABS Purchases to Spur SME Lending (BBG)
  • Benghazi Attack Set for New Review (WSJ)
  • Belgium Says 31 People Arrested Over $50 Million Diamond Theft (BBG)
  • Brazilian diplomat Roberto Azevêdo wins WTO leadership battle (FT)
  • Bangladesh Garment Factory Building Collapse Toll Reaches 782 (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: April 2





  • The revolving door continues: Mary Schapiro joins Promontory Financial (WSJ)
  • First Peek at Health-Law Cost (WSJ)
  • Abe warns over Japan inflation target: warns 2% inflation target may not be reached within two years (FT)
  • BoJ's Kuroda tested by divided board (Reuters)
  • Nanjing poultry butcher fourth person infected with H7N9 bird flu (SCMP)
  • What time do top CEOs wake up? (Guardian)
  • Cyprus Seeks More Time to Meet Targets in Talks With Troika (BBG)
  • Investors Ignore Negativity at Their Peril (WSJ)
  • Apple bows to Chinese pressure (FT)
  • One can only laugh: North Korea to restart nuclear reactor in weapons bid (Reuters)
  • Visa Demand Jumps (WSJ)
  • Bloomberg's refutation of Stockman: yes, yes but... look over there, stocks are up! (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 11





  • One in four Germans would back anti-euro party (Reuters)
  • EU Chiefs Seeking to Stave Off Euro Crisis Turn to Cyprus (BBG)
  • Ryan Says His Budget Would Slow Annual Spending Growth to 3.4% (BBG)
  • Goldman leads decline as Wall Street commodity revenues plummet (Reuters)
  • South Korea and US begin military drills (FT) and North Korea cuts off hotline with South Korea (Reuters)
  • Karzai Inflames U.S. Tensions  (WSJ)
  • Algorithms Get a Human Hand in Steering Web (NYT)
  • Meeting Is Set to Choose Pope (WSJ)
  • More U.S. Profits Parked Abroad, Saving on Taxes (WSJ)
  • Banks rush to redraft pay deals (FT)
  • Fugitive Fund Manager Stuffed Underwear With Cash, Fled (BBG)
  • Post-Newtown Gun Limits Agenda Narrows in U.S. Congress (BBG)
  • China Hints at Shift in One-Child Policy (WSJ)
 
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