ETC
2015 Year In Review: "Terminal Phase" Excess & Peak Cognitive Dissonance
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 19:20 -0500- Bank of Japan
- Bear Market
- Bond
- Brazil
- Central Banks
- China
- Cognitive Dissonance
- Commercial Real Estate
- Copper
- Corporate America
- CPI
- Crude
- Currency Peg
- Deutsche Bank
- Donald Trump
- Eastern Europe
- ETC
- Global Economy
- Hong Kong
- Japan
- Mexico
- Middle East
- Morningstar
- Real estate
- Renaissance
- Shadow Banking
- Sovereign Debt
- Sovereigns
- Swiss National Bank
- Turkey
- Unemployment
- Volatility
- Wall Street Journal
- Yuan
Important pillars of the bull case evaporated throughout 2015. Global price pressures weakened, the global Credit backdrop deteriorated and the global economy decelerated. The huge bets on central bank policies left markets at high risk for abrupt reversals and trade unwinds – 2015 The Year of the Erratic Crowded Trade. Indeed, a global bear market commenced yet most remain bullish. Serious and objective analysts would view this ominously.
A "Witch's Brew" Bubbling In Bond ETFs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/02/2016 12:00 -0500We believe the Credit Cycle has turned and with it will come some massive unexpected shocks. One of these will be the fall out in the Bond Market, centered around the dramatic growth explosion in Bond ETFs coupled with the post financial crisis regulatory changes that effectively removed banks from making markets in corporate bonds. It is a ‘Witch’s Brew’ with a flattening yield curve bringing it to a boil.
Poker's 10 Most Valuable Investment Lessons
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/01/2016 14:20 -0500While most amateurs will bet on most hands, take speculative positions where the odds of success are stacked against them or try to bluff their way through a losing hand; professionals play with a cold, calculated and unemotional discipline. The professional gambler understands the odds of success of every play and measures his “bets” accordingly. He knows when to be “all in” and when to “fold and walk away.” Do they succeed all the time – of course not. However, by understanding how to limit losses they survive long enough to come out a winner over time.
The Next Big Short
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/01/2016 13:20 -0500At the end of the day, the current preposterous $325 billion market cap has nothing to do with the business prospects of this firm or the considerable entrepreneurial prowess of its leader and his army of disrupters. It is more in the nature of financial rigor mortis - the final spasm of the robo-traders and the fast money crowd chasing one of the greatest bubbles still standing in the casino.
Now Comes The Great Unwind - How Evaporating Commodity Wealth Will Slam The Casino
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/31/2015 16:35 -0500The unfolding correction of the visible excesses of the credit inflation - such as overinvestment and malinvestment - will destroy incomes and profits; the Great Unwind of the less visible effects, such as the sovereign wealth fund liquidations, are a giant pin aimed squarely at the monumental worldwide bubbles in stock, bonds and real estate.
The Cultural Contradictions That Have Crippled The Great American Middle Class
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2015 11:35 -0500Conventional explorations of why the middle class is shrinking focus on economic issues such as the decline of unions and manufacturing, the increasing premiums paid to the highest-paid workers and the rising costs of higher education and healthcare. All of these factors have a role, but few comment on the non-economic factors, specifically the values that underpin the accumulation of capital that is the one essential project of middle class households.
The Rising Threats To Our Health
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 19:30 -0500Though evidence of a looming global healthcare crisis is plainly visible, few seem to realize the consequences will be catastrophic to individuals, households and national economies.
"2016 Will Be No Fun" - Doug Kass Unveils 15 Surprises For The Year Ahead
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 11:36 -0500- American Express
- Andrew Ross Sorkin
- Apple
- B+
- BAC
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- Berkshire Hathaway
- Bernie Sanders
- Bill Gates
- Boeing
- Bond
- Book Value
- Capital Expenditures
- Carl Icahn
- Chesapeake Energy
- China
- Citigroup
- Comcast
- Crude
- dark pools
- Dark Pools
- David Faber
- Donald Trump
- Doug Kass
- Dow Jones Industrial Average
- Elizabeth Warren
- ETC
- European Union
- Federal Reserve
- Florida
- Ford
- Fox Business
- France
- General Motors
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- GOOG
- Greece
- HFT
- Housing Market
- Janet Yellen
- Joe Kernen
- JPMorgan Chase
- Morgan Stanley
- MSNBC
- NASDAQ
- NBC
- New York City
- New York Stock Exchange
- New York Times
- Nominal GDP
- President Obama
- Real estate
- Recession
- recovery
- REITs
- Sears
- Stagflation
- Unemployment
- Vladimir Putin
- Warren Buffett
- Wells Fargo
- Yield Curve
My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.
If You Want To Limit The Power Of The Super-Wealthy, Stop Using Their Money
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 10:31 -0500Everyone who is convinced that the current status quo is permanent and unbreakable should consider what happened to the super-wealthy private landholders of the Western Roman Empire. When the empire's power to coerce broke down, the super-wealthy vanished into the dustbin of history. Few believed that possible in 475 AD, but history isn't a matter of belief. Believing it isn't possible doesn't stop history.
Falling Interest Causes Falling Profits
Submitted by Gold Standard Institute on 12/29/2015 01:45 -0500Most people assume that prices move as a result of changes in the money supply. Instead, let’s look at the effect of changes in interest.
What's In Store For Our Freedoms In 2016? More Of Everything We Don't Want
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 22:25 -0500James Madison, the father of the Constitution, put it best: “Take alarm,” he warned, “at the first experiment with liberties.” Anyone with even a casual knowledge about current events knows that the first experiment on our freedoms happened long ago. Worse, we have not heeded the warnings of Madison and those like him who understood that if you give the government an inch, they will take a mile. Unfortunately, the government has not only taken a mile, they have taken mile after mile after mile after mile with seemingly no end in sight for their power grabs. All of the signs point to something nasty up ahead.
7 Investment Lessons From Mom
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 15:40 -0500"Don't run with sharp objects" ... "If everyone jumped off the cliff - Would you do it too?" ...and "Don't talk to strangers!"
US Economy - A Year-End Overview
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 11:34 -0500It becomes ever more tempting to conclude that the timing of the Fed’s rate hike was really quite odd, even from the perspective of the planners...
Honey, I Shrunk The Middle Class: Less Than One Third Of Households Qualify
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 10:07 -0500If it takes more than $126,000 to fund a qualitatively defined middle class lifestyle, what sense does it even make to call this "middle"?
Lessons From The Late '20s - Why Bubbles Abound
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/27/2015 13:25 -0500Market-based Credit is unstable. This remains the fundamental issue – the harsh reality – that no one dares confront. Long-term stability in a Capitalistic system requires sound money and Credit (hopelessly archaic, we admit). Over the years, we've tried to differentiate traditional finance from unfettered “New Age” finance. The former, bank lending-dominated Credit, was generally contained by various mechanisms (including the gold standard, effective currency regimes, bank capital and reserve requirements, etc.). This is in stark contrast to the current-day securities market-based global financial “system” uniquely operating without restraints on either the quantity or quality of Credit created. There’s no precedence for such a globalized monetary fiasco, though there are a number of historical episodes that provide valuable insight.



