ETC

Can the stock market completely ignore these five key changes and keep powering higher on the fumes of Mario Draghi's promises?

Eurodollar curve captures the mechanics of Fed expectations in a simple way. Away from the very front end, the curve dynamics is displays a rather rigid structure where a single risk premium parameter explains bulk of the spreads movement in different sectors of the curve. Typically, in anticipation of Fed hikes or cuts, the market makes up its mind about the terminal Fed funds (Greens) and begins to price in the rates path around that. The more aggressive the initial hikes are, the less they will have to do later

One would think that 'little incident in August' never happened. Yes, the markets once again rewarded the BTFD crowd. But (and it’s a very big but) not because it’s a market. This is what takes place in a casino. Confusing financial market expertise and casino gambling is the mistake today’s “bull” crowd keeps making. And just like most gamblers – the odds turn out of your favor just when you believed you had “the” sure-fire system to beat them.

If Bernie Sanders really believes that socialism is the solution, then he is misguided – even though his criticism of oligarchic cronyism is justified. Socialists believe that the society is just one “organic body” and as with all such entities resources are used indiscriminately by the organism so as to support its various functions, organs, faculties, etc., never mind who produces and who consumes the resources; those are for the whole system to use as is needed: “From each according to his/her ability, to each according to his/her need!” Trouble is some of the people will have to decide about all this.  It is not automatic, contrary to what Marxists think. And here is where the politicians and their appointed bureaucrats enter the picture.

Yes, the United States is one of the greatest places in the world... to be a consumer. If you want to shop, spend, and consume, the US is pretty damn near #1 in the world. But if you want to build. If you want to create. If you want to be a producer in the United States... it’s a whole different story.

The previous Bubble was of the Fed’s making, and our central bank lost control. It became a Hobson’s Choice issue in the eyes of the Fed, and they fully accommodated the Bubble. These days, the Fed and global central bankers face a similar but much more precarious Bubble Dynamic: The Fed specifically targeted higher securities market prices as its prevailing post-mortgage finance Bubble (“helicopter money”) reflationary mechanism. This ensured that the Fed would again be unwilling to impose any monetary restraint before it would then become too risky to remove accommodation (Einstein’s definition of insanity?). In concert, global central bankers now aggressively accommodate financial Bubbles.

The insane lie that cultural Marxists seem to have conned themselves and others into believing is that their “activism” is somehow anti-establishment. In fact, social justice is constantly coddled and supported by the establishment. From politicians to judges to media pundits to the blogosphere, the overwhelming majority of people in positions of traditional power (even in supposedly conservative circles) have been more than happy to become the enforcers of the social justice warrior agenda, an agenda representing a minuscule portion of the public. There is no establishment for the PC army to fight; the establishment bias works vastly more in favor of their ideology than any other. Cultural Marxists ARE the establishment.

What this economic crisis does highlight is that short-term success should never be taken as proof of a long-term solution. And this is particularly true when it comes to quasi-socialist and extreme populist governments. In the long-run, countries that follow these policies have a consistent track record, which is basically the same as what we’re witnessing now in Venezuela.

Much has been made about the impressive gains in efficiency and productivity in the shale patch, as new drilling techniques squeeze ever more oil and gas out of new wells. But the limits to such an approach are becoming increasingly visible. The U.S. shale revolution is running out of steam.

Why is wealth/income inequality soaring? The easy answer is of course the infinite greed of Wall Street fat-cats and the politicos they buy/own. If conventional labor and finance capital have lost their scarcity value, then the era in which financialization reaped big profits is ending.

Roughly ONE THIRD of the advisory firms the SEC examined failed to meet custody rule requirements.

Throughout the United States, Americans believe there is a “war on police.” A recent survey found 58% of Americans agree with this sentiment. A new, privately-funded billboard campaign hijacks the “Black Lives Matter” moniker to read “Blue Lives Matter,” highlighting powerful pushback from law enforcement sympathizers against activists. A deeper examination of the FBI's 2014 data, however, reveals that police are not only safe, but still running rampant in their liberal use of violence against the citizens they allegedly serve.

From the bowels of Australia’s iron ore mines to the top of Dubai’s pointless 100 story office towers, the entire warp and woof of the global economy has been distorted and bloated by the central bank money printing spree of the last two decades, led by the red credit machines of Beijing. Everywhere economies have succumbed to over-building, over-consumption, over-financialization and endless dangerous, unstable speculation. Stated differently, China’s red capitalism is the new black swan. There is nothing rational, stable or sustainable about it.

We expect the ultimate outcome of Carl Icahn's Super PAC will be to make it easier for activists to pressure management teams into buying back even more of their shares - perhaps by granting them a tax amnesty on repatriating some of the $2 trillion in offshore cash if used for shareholder friendly activity - but then again we tend to be cynical.