ETC

Yellen and her cohort have no clue, however, that all of their massive money printing never really left the canyons of Wall Street, but instead inflated the mother of all financial bubbles. So they are fixing to blow-up the joint for the third time this century. That was plain as day when our Keynesian school marm insisted that the Third Avenue credit fund failure this past week was a one-off event - a lone rotten apple in the barrel. Now that is the ultimate in cluelessness.

The Fed's hubris has led it to the Dark Side.

Brazil's Supreme Court green lighted House Speaker Eduardo Cunha's Rousseff impeachment bid on Wednesday, even as the high court is also considering a request for his removal. Meanwhile, the economy continues to deteriorate as we just got the highest unemployment reading for the month of November in seven years."

It appears that a main preoccupation of economists – the self declared “behavioral economists” prominent among them – is to show how dumb people are as consumers and in assessing risks. Drawn to logical conclusion, this implies that economists, advising benevolent dictators are the solution. In ancient Greece people flocked to oracles and sought guidance.; today, Councils of Economic Advisers, IMF, OECD, Nobel prizes sustain perceptions that "macro- strology" and much else of what economists do is "science."

How much do you think your paper currency will be worth 23 centuries from now? Or even 23 years? Or potentially even 23 months?

The continued misuse of capital and continued erroneous monetary policies have instigated not only the recent downturn but actually 30 years of an insidious slow moving infection that has destroyed the American legacy. “Recessions” should be embraced and utilized to clear the “excesses” that accrue in the economic system during the first half of the economic growth cycle. Trying to delay the inevitable, only makes the inevitable that much worse in the end.

China did everything it could to prevent a collapse and it still happened.  How do you think other countries will do?

The upside is ephemeral, illusory or wishful thinking; the downside is real and lasting.

In the fifth and final GOP presidential nominee debate deathmatch (from The Ventian in Vegas), all eyes will be on the Cruz and Rubio as they vie for 2nd place to The Teflon Don. It won't be all plain-sailing for Trump (who warned CNN about "fairness" and slammed FOX's Megyn Kelly in the pre-debate tweetfest), who expects "them all to be coming for me," but we suspect Ben Carson will be a little quieter. With the stakes highest so far (and Iowa caucuses just 7 weeks away) for some of the also-rans it is put-up-or-shut-up time which may mean more fireworks and spectacle as Americans are distracted from their fear of terror, stagnant income, pre-Fed last supper.

The libertarian spin on the path to the dark side has many lessons for our country. Shortly after 9/11, Vice President Dick Cheney said on television, “We also have to work, though, sort of the dark side, if you will.” And, stricken with terror and indulging in hate, America did embrace the dark side, accepting torture, indefinite detention, warrantless surveillance, assassination, perpetual illegal wars, and mass civilian casualties. Terror led to hate, hate led to aggression, and aggression has led to suffering, not only for the the direct victims of the wars, but for Westerners at home, as we find ourselves afflicted by blowback in the form of a refugee crisis and terrorist attacks.

Combine the rising regulatory burden with the decline of entrepreneurship, and you get a bubbling brew that is toxic to self-employment/small business.

Alleged bitcoin founder Craig "Coldfish" Wright once tried to trade nearly $85 million of virtual currency for gold, according to transcipts from ATO meetings and an account penned by The Australian. The transaction, purportedly conducted with controversial businessman Mark Ferrier, suggests that the man some say is the fabled Satoshi Nakamoto may have believed that his creation was nothing more than "funny money" after all. 

The $100 trillion global bond bubble has begun bursting.

In light of surging concerns about mutual and hedge fund fixed income (and soon other asset classes) "gating", "runs" or outright liquidation, Deutsche Bank has prepared the following infographic which summarizes the main choke points which predispose both open and closed-end funds to runs or outright shutdown.

It should be easy to at least get the direction of interest rate changes correct, most of the time.  Instead as we see in the chart here, professional money managers always get this wrong (and truth be told this pattern has been going on for many cycles).  The problem is just as bad when it comes to predicting stock price changes for the following year. While both risks in stock and bond markets are again smouldering in advance we focus our attention here on the knottier and more pertinent idea of the dispersion about interest rates expected for 2016.  In other words, what should this probability distribution of outcomes or errors best look like?