ETC

Tyler Durden's picture

The Ambitious Plan To Break California Into 6 States – A Model For The Future?





The more one thinks about potential solutions to the gigantic mess we have found ourselves in as a species, the more one has come to believe we need to break apart into a vast multitude of city-states. The revolutionary concept of America in the first place was this idea of “self-governance,” something we do not posses an iota of in this day and age. As was noted recently in an academic paper published by Princeton and Northwestern, these United States have mutated into nothing short of an oligarchy. In fact, the study demonstrated that the will of the people has essentially zero impact on legislation whatsoever. The current overly centralized paradigm parasitically engulfing the planet will experience a series of spectacular collapses in the years ahead that will make 2008 look like practice. As the centralized beast episodically implodes upon itself, we will have a historic chance to remake our world in a new way that will better serve humanity. That new paradigm will consist of freedom through decentralization

 
Tyler Durden's picture

MH17 Will Usher In A Completely New Kind Of War - One The US Cannot Win





Just like a century ago when waning British power invited a power struggle among rising nations, waning US power is creating conflict with Russia, China, etc. A century ago, they settled it on the battlefield. The great war brought brutal mass killings, bombings, heavy artillery, gassing, etc. And it changed warfare forever. This time around, the way we conduct war is different. Similarly, leaders are miscalculating, thinking that they can scare their opponents with warships and fighter jets. But modern warfare isn’t fought with boots on the ground. In 2014, cyberwar and economic war looms. And this type of war is something that will affect literally every person who is plugged in to the global financial system.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Fed's Cancerous Actions Are Killing the Patient





Today we’re going to explain what the “final outcome” for this process will be. The short version is what happens to a cancer patient who allows the disease to spread unchecked (death).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Insiders' Case For A Stock Market Mini-Crash





Ssshh... The trade only works if everyone is lulled into staying on the long side until it's too late.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Disposable Income Looks Like: With And Without Government Handouts





If one looks past headline figures, things are not really getting better. As shown in Figure 1, real disposable income per capita in the U.S. has increased only modestly since the Great Recession. However, all of this increase is due to Government Transfers, not from an improvement in the real economy.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Commodity Contagion Leads To First Letter Of Credit Settlement Failure





At the heart of the China Commodity Financing Deals (CCFD) is the ability to leverage a letter of credit on the basis that there was some collateral somewhere that backed the risk of this rehypothecatable 'money'. Until now, the biggest concern has been "where's my copper, nickel, gold, etc..?" as the Qingdao ponzi scheme is unveiled; but, as Metal Bulletin reports, the contagion from the exposure of CCFDs ponzi has now hit Western banks. At least one western bank has stopped discount financing of copper into China after Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) applied for the right not to settle a letter of credit it issued earlier this year, as a result of the Qingdao investigations. In other words the collateral chains were just snapped...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Happy Birthday Paper Money: 353 Years Of Wanton Destruction





On July 16, 1661, the bank of Johan Wittmacher - a Latvian merchant of Dutch descent - became the first in history to issue paper banknotes - Kreditivsedlar. After only seven years, the bank collapsed. But the idea of paper notes lived on to infect the evolution of money ever since. Today’s commercial banks take in customer deposits, maintain a laughably small portion in reserve, and use the rest of our money to make idiotic loans for their maximum benefit. When they fail, they’re bailed out by taxpayers and do the same thing all over again. In Wittmacher’s time, this was fraud. Today it’s not only legal, it’s the industry standard. So... happy birthday paper money. It’s a hell of a system you’ve brought us.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why One Big Bank Is "Worried That The Market Is Stretched And Could Correct Rapidly"





We show that equity markets are stretched (e.g., more than 80% of the S&P rally since last year is due to re-rating), but we also find that the fixed income market has become quite rich (we have been overweight European peripherals for more than a year on valuation grounds, we show that this argument no longer holds), and the same is true of the credit market. Second because capital has been flowing rapidly into risky assets, we document that argument and here too find evidence that the market might be ahead of itself. We read the market reaction last week to the Portuguese news as a sign that the market is indeed too complacent and could correct rapidly.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Finding Shelter From The Coming Storms Part 2





More basic suggestions for those who are seeking shelter from the coming storms of global financial crisis and recession (part 1 here).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Ukraine Releases YouTube Clip "Proving" Rebels Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH-17





Moments ago Ukraine released what may be just that missing "YouTube" link, when it unveiled a video supposedly proving that "militants of "Bes" group shot down with a Russian anti-aircraft missile a Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 passenger jet heading from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur." And yet, something here smells very fishy...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why America's Healthcare (Sickcare) System Is Broken And Unfixable





Here's a two-word summary of why the American healthcare system is fundamentally broken and cannot be fixed with policy tweaks: perverse incentives.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Janet Yellen's "I'm Dovish But Sell Small Caps" Senate Hearing Part Deux - Live Feed





Having sent shockwaves through the "Don't fight the Fed" apologists yesterday by stating that small caps (etc.) have stretched valuations, we suspect today's hearing (assuming the politicians have now read her statement and report) will focus on what the market's gurus is rapidly trying to paper over. Expect more 'uber-dovish if we need to', expect more 'vigilant' of bubbles (but there are none now)... expect more 'rates will rise - so sell your bonds (and patriotically help with the collateral shortage). Presenting Janet Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins part two... facing the Republican-led Financial Services Committee.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why The Status-Quo Is Unsustainable: Interest and Debt (What Yellen Won't Tell You)





Even if the economy were growing at a faster pace, it wouldn't come close to offsetting the interest payments on our ever-expanding debt. If you want to know why the Status Quo is unsustainable, just look at interest and debt.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Draghi Knows Narratives Are No Longer Enough, But "There Are No Easy Choices Here"





The problem for the ECB, of course, is that Espirito Santo and Erste are not isolated incidents, any more than Laiki and Fortis and Anglo Irish and WestLB and BMPS and... should we go on? ...were isolated incidents. "...with apologies to Lewis Carroll, here’s the choice facing our modern-day Alice (Mario Draghi) – does (s)he sing a lullaby that keeps the Red King (investors) sleeping for a few more years, albeit at the cost of drinking a terrible potion that will turn her into a hideous giant... or does she let the Red King wake up, shattering the dream and risking the existence of everything, herself included, but preserving the story of her beautiful face and form?" If we were betting men (and we are), we’d wager on Draghi drinking the potion and keeping the dream alive, no matter how complicit it makes him in preserving a very ugly and very politically-driven status quo. But there’s a non-trivial chance that it’s just too much to swallow...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Are Share Buybacks About To Hit A Brick Wall?





With the Q2 US reporting season upon us, SocGen's quant research team focuses on the deteriorating state of corporate balance sheets in the US. Despite Intel going full retard on forecast buybacks, as we remarked numerous times, US firms are starting to show the strains of having to buy back $500bn of shares every year, whilst cash flows were under pressure. Leverage, SocGen argues, is starting to become an issue... and with it the ability to fund ever more expensive buybacks to maintain the illusion of EPS growth

 
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