The volatile sell-off in global equities from Thursday August 20th through Tuesday August 24th, alongside a relatively muted diversification benefit from fixed income, led many risk parity funds to suffer a sudden and sharp drawdown over the four-day period. The performance drawdown and subsequent spike in the volatility of risk parity funds likely triggered a significant deleveraging in their assets.
With China closed today, the usual overnight market manipulation fireworks out of Beijing were absent but that does not meant asset levitation could not take place, and instead of the daily kick start out of China today it has been all about the ECB which as we previewed two days ago, is expected - at least by some such as ABN Amro - to outright boost its QE, while virtually everyone else expects Draghi to not only cut the ECB's inflation forecast, which reminds us of the chart which in March we dubbed the biggest hockeystick ever (we knew it wouldn't last) but to verbally jawbone the Euro as low as possible (i.e., the Dax as high as it will get) even if the former Goldmanite does not explicitly commit to more QE.
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With Crude ramping, dragging stocks with it (as USDJPY is dead now) but not really gaining much ground, it was only a matter of time before the manipulators turned to their oldest-trick-in-the-book:
*NASDAQ, NYSE EXCHANGES DECLARE SELF-HELP AGAINST CBOE
VIX is gapping lower... Mission Accomplished
"One of the biggest problems we face is that there is no historical template for current global market conditions so we’re all flying blind to a large degree. Never before have so many of the most important countries in the world printed so much money and left base rates at near zero for so long. Also never before has the largest economy in the world tried to start a slow process of reversing said extraordinary policy. So there is no road map for this journey, only educated (hopefully) predictions."
RANSQUAWK PREVIEW VIDEO: ECB September'15 Rate Decision: The ECB are expected to leave all three rates unchanged, with focus turning to inflation and the possibility of an expansion to the QE programmeSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 09/02/2015 07:55 -0400
- All surveyed analysts expect the ECB to keep their three key interest rates unchanged
- A number of analysts have suggested that inflation rhetoric could be downbeat and further QE is a possibility later this year, as such any potential indication to this by Draghi is likely to take centre stage at the press conference
- The central bank are said to be concerned by inflation expectations, with low energy prices and recent EUR strength raising concerns about the central bank’s mandated 2% inflation target
As Deutsche Bank put it on Tuesday, we've officially reached the end of the "Great Accumulation" as slumping Chinese growth, plunging crude, and an imminent Fed hike have put enormous pressure on emerging economies’ accumulated stash of FX reserves and that means that buyers of USD assets are becoming sellers at the expense of global liquidity and the perpetual bid for some core paper. Now, Goldman has weighed in, noting that the rise in foreign FX reserves held by non-G-7 countries that started around 2003-04 (at around US$1trn) appears to have ended for good.
"Worryingly, EM capital flows are already significantly undershooting the projection from the hawkish scenario. The less constructive view is that the Fed balance sheet simply matters far more for EM, with liquidity provided by the ECB and BoJ a poor compensation for the Fed’s retrenchment. The hawkish scenario of Fed stopping reinvestment next year would suggest that EM flows can get weaker, while even a more dovish scenario of a constant Fed balance sheet would not be enough to lift inflows again."
Wax on Wax off,risk on today risk off tomorrow.....things could spiral out of control rather quickly
"The current secular shift in reserve manager behavior represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. The path to “normalization” will likely remain slow and fraught with difficulty."
A President Trump may be able to make small changes here or there, “But the setting of the bureau’s activities is determined by rules and regulations which are beyond his reach.” Presidents come and go, but the unelected bureaucracy always remains. For all his simpleton bluster, even the mighty Trump is no match for the leviathan.
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Two state-owned Chinese oil trading companies (Chinaoil, which is the trading arm of state-run China National Petroleum Corp. and Unipec, which is owned by Sinopec) have been busy monopolizing the Dubai spot market, as a bout of suspicious trading activity between the two has served to distort prices and confuse other traders.
Just like the last time when Chinese flash PMI data came out at the lowest level since the financial crisis, so overnight when both the official Chinese manufacturing and service PMI data, as well as the Caixin final PMI,s confirmed China's economy has not only ground to a halt but is now contracting with the official manufacturing data the lowest in 3 years and the first contraction in 6 months, stocks around the globe tumbled on concerns another major devaluation round by the PBOC is just around the corner with the drop led by the Shanghai Composite which plunged as much as 4% before, the cavalry arrived and bought every piece of SSE 50 index of China's biggest companies it could find, and in a rerun of yestterday sent it to a green close, with the SHCOMP closing just -1.23% in the red. So much for the "no interventions" myth. We wonder which journalist will take the blame for today's rout.
China has just cornered the Fed: not just diplomatically, as observed when China's PBOC clearly demanded that Yellen's Fed not start a rate hiking cycle, but also mechanistically, as can be seen by the acute and sudden selloff across all asset classes in the past 3 weeks. Now Yellen has about 365 days or so to find a solution, one which works not only for the US, but also does not leave China a smoldering rubble of three concurrently burst bubbles. Good luck.