And just like that AMZN joins the AAPL club in admitting it is fresh out of organic growth ideas, and will resort to balance sheet alchemy to boost its price higher over the foreseeable future. Any immediate jumps in the stock are to be faded.
Rumors of ECB monetization (which would be highly problematic in the new "bail-in" world) and old news of the emergency debt-buyback plan have sparked an epic ramp in Deutsche Bank's stock this morning (+11% - the most since Oct 2011). This extreme volatility is, however, eerily reminiscent of 2007/8 when headline hockey sparked pumps and dumps on a daily basis in Lehman stock... until it was all over.
- Global Stocks Bounce Back After Market Selloff; Asia Stumbles (WSJ)
- New Hampshire Bucks the Establishment to Back Trump and Sanders (BBG)
- Trump shows his U.S. presidential bid is no mere publicity stunt (Reuters)
- Clinton Is Outdone by a Competitor Once Considered a Fringe Candidate (WSJ)
- Deutsche Bank Jumps as Lender Said to Consider Bond Buyback (BBG)
- Bank Executives Leading Surge of Insider Buying Amid Stock Rout (BBG)
"The dovish surprise is if she explicitly removes March from the hiking calendar (which would be Draghi-esque in front running the FOMC), broadly hints at a delay or expresses concern on downside risk to long term inflation or structural stagnation. The intention would be to show US households, business and investors that the Fed has their back... It is unlikely, however, that pointing to negative rates or QE4 would work, as investors are increasingly skeptical that more of the same policy mix would be effective in hitting final goals."
Many readers would consider this a simple question and perhaps even an obsolete one.
On Jan 28, the price of silver flash crashed. This irregularity occurred around the silver fix. The spot price was $14.40 but the fix was $13.58.
The total and utter failure of The BoJ continues to accelerate...
BTFD? Deutsche Bank stock crashed over 11% today (the most since July 2009) to its lowest since January 2009 record lows. We have detailed at length why this is a major systemic problem and we wonder how anyone can view this chart and not question their full faith in central planners engineering of the 'recovery'. Nothing is fixed and it's starting to become very obvious!
And you thought Greece was "fixed"...
With China celebrating the Lunar New Year and offline until next weekend, and with the US in the usual post-payrolls macro newsflow lull, the markets will have more than enough time to stew in the latest source of contagion fears, namely Europe, the same Europe which until recently was fixed but is broken all over again.
There is a new element to the latest European selloff, one which turned vicious just minutes after Europe opened for trading this morning with not just commercial banks (who are now all subject to bail-ins courtesy of the BRRD) being dumped with the Deutsche Bank water, but peripheral spreads and equity markets have all joined in. And moments ago, the Athens stock market just dropped to the lowest level since 1990, while the Greek banking index just crashed over 21% to a new all time low.
For the first time since 2012, Bafin - Germany’s banking regulator, which for a minute looked like it might actually accuse Anshu Jain of lying about LIBOR - has closed a bank. All financial transactions by Maple Bank of Canada’s German subsidiary have been halted due to "imminent over indebtedness."
It seems monetary policy is exhausted and the next exogenous lever to pull would be political fiscal initiatives. If/when they fail to stimulate demand, there would be only one avenue left – currency devaluation. If/when confidence in the mightiest currency wanes, we would expect the US dollar to be devalued too - not against other fiat currencies, but against a relatively scarce Fed asset.
"We have reached that fork in the road within the monetary twilight zone, where Europe's largest bank is openly defying central bank policy and demanding an end to easy money. Alas, since tighter monetary policy assures just as much if not more pain, one can't help but wonder just how the central banks get themselves out of this particular trap they set up for themselves."