After serving much drama to its shareholders - and global markets - over the past couple of months, when its stock tumbled to all time lows, Deutsche Bank provided some relief when earlier this morning it reported a modest, unexpected profit of €256 million for the third quarter on lower litigation and restructuring costs, beating consensus estimate. However, to many on Wall Street, this wasn't enough.
With all eyes on the drop in the British Pound, it is another 'pound' that is utterly collapsing. Despite its official exchange rate is 8.88 per dollar, Egypt’s pound dropped to 16.11 per dollar in the black market, another record that extends declines over the past month to 19% and down over 40% since it devalued in March.
It really does feel like the worst of both worlds: all the ravages of poverty, but none of the sympathy. "Blacks burn police cars, and those liberal elites say it's not their fault because they're poor. My son gets jailed and fired over a baggie of meth, and those same elites make jokes about his missing teeth!" You're everyone's punching bag, one of society's last remaining safe comedy targets.
The effective duration on Bank of America’s global government bond index climbed to an all-time high of 8.23 in 2016, from 5 when it began in 1997. A one-percentage point increase in interest rates equates to about $2.1 trillion in losses for global investors, based on a Bloomberg Barclays sovereign-debt index.
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.
Venezuela just dodged a bullet, pulling off a last minute bond swap with creditors. The deal only buys Venezuela a little bit of breathing room, and a default at some point next year or the year after is not out of the question. Either way, the South American OPEC nation’s oil production is falling and will only continue on a downward trajectory.
15 years after it was part of one historic merger, Time Warner is getting bought again, and while the current deal is roughly half the size of AOL's historic $164 billion acquisition of Time Warner in 2000 it's still a big enough deal that it's drawing attention on the campaign trail from both candidates, and to generate millions in revenues for Wall Street banks eager to sell the $40 billion in debt needed to fund the deal.
Global stocks jumped around the globe, with Europe's Stoxx 600 and US equity futures rising more than 0.5% on a surge in merger announcements over the weekend including the $85 billion mega takeout of AT&T for Time Warner, the $6.4 billion acquisition of B/E Aerospace by Rockwell Collins, the $2.7 billion deal targeting Genworth by China Oceanwide and the just announced $4 billion purchase of Scotttrade by Ameritrade.
It seems that the continuation of the devaluation that we have been waiting for is officially back on. So assuming that many of the strong relationships that have been in place the last several years hold, what should investors be mindful of?