So… the Fed may not be able to raise interest rates because Wall Street has $12 trillion in derivatives that could be affected?
ConvergEx's monthly review of analysts' revenue expectations for the 30 companies in the Dow finds a ray of sunshine (let's call them 'sweet dreams') to counter the current humdrum market action. First, the 'good' news: analysts expect the current quarter to post some of the best top line growth in over 2 years. The 'meh' news: that’s still only a 2.5% comp to last year, and 2.9% excluding financials. Still, that is better than the 0.3-0.5% growth of Q1 2014. That acceleration, such as it is, continues into Q3 2014, where analysts have revenue growth pegged at 3.9%. The 'bad' news: brokerage analysts have been spectacularly wrong in forecasting revenues of late. In Q1 2014 the Street expected 4-5% growth in May of last year, only to whittle those numbers down month after month and still prove too optimistic on earnings day. Still, things might work out this time and Q2 will actually see a rebound. At current valuation levels, the bulls better hope they do.
The mainstream media may have long forgotten about the Fukushima tragedy (as it certainly goes against the far more popular and palatable meme of a Japan "recovery" courtesy of Abenomics) but that does not mean it is fixed or even contained. Quite the contrary. As a rare update from Japan's Jiji news agency reminds us, on Friday radiation at five monitoring points in waters adjacent to the crippled Fukushima No. 1 power station spiked to all-time highs according to the semi-nationalized TEPCO.
Just out from Bloomberg:
- Deutsche Bank preparing a capital increase, aims to raise EU8 billion through new shares by end of June, Handelsblatt says, citing unidentified people in the finance industry.
- Deutsche Bank likely to get new single investor
- Deutsche Bank new investor may hold 5%-8% of shares
- Deutsche Bank declined to comment: Handelsblatt
And the punchline: Bank’s new shares may be sold with 25%-30% discount. In other words, it is liquidity scramble time, and the bank is willing to give anyone with deep enough pockets a 30% discount to market price just to get some additional short-term funding.
The serial extrapolators will be pleased... and the talking heads will now proclaim this as clear evidence that the cold-weather dysphoria has abated and its blue skies for real estate from here... Housing Permits back over 1 million homes SAAR (and biggest jump in a year) to new 6 year highs and Housing Starts back above 1 million SAAR near last year's highs. However, there is one major caveat - almost the entire surge was led by an almost 40% spike in multi-family units as the 'rental nation' grows ever stronger. Multi-family accounted for almost 30% of all starts - the highest in over 4 years as single-family starts rose a dismal 0.8%. Not exactly the "but housing inventories are so low and they must builder more homes" kind of growth that the headlines will crow about...
Just last month we highlighted how the collapse in China's shadow-banking system, it's concomittant credit crunch, and vicious circle of commodity-financed credit creation could spread contagiously to the rest of the world - through refusal to pay. It seems we were prophetic as Reuters confirms that money owed to Chinese firms by their customers has reached a record high. As China's economy continues to cool, companies are waiting longer and finding it harder to get paid for goods and services they've already sold, leading to record amounts of receivables - and potential write-offs - on corporate balance sheets. As one Chinese business owner exclaimed: "If you don't pay me and I pay others, aren't I just a sucker? I'm not that stupid." Receivables on average (across 2300 firms) reached $160.49 million at the end of last year, more than double the $65.9 million average at the end of 2009 and median collection time for billings crawled up from 71.4 days to 90.42 days (the first time above 90 days). "It's a pretty loud warning bell," warns a Peking professor.
When The Head Of The European Central Bank Lies To Zero Hedge On The Record: Presenting Europe's "Plan Z"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/15/2014 15:16 -0400
We are happy to report that Zero Hedge is the first media outlet that Mario Draghi has very publicly, officially, and on the record, lied to. Because as we learned overnight, Europe most certainly had a "plan in place so that the markets don't basically collapse." Only it wasn't as Margio Draghi called it, Plan B. It was a different letter of the alphabet. Thanks to the FT's Peter Spiegel we now know that just over a year ago, in order to preserve the myth that Europe's power echelons are so "confident" with the Eurozone staying together they did not even consider a break up as a potential outcome, Draghi explicitly and on the record lied.
Presenting Europe's Plan Z.
We went down the 'golden' rabbit hole and we were stunned by some of the things we found...
"Mission Accomplished"... At 297k this is the lowest initial claims print since May 2007 (beating expectations of 318k by the most in 8 months). This rebound jump lower in claims reflects on many of the most recent indicators bouncing back from weather-effects but the question is its sustainability - and extrapolatibility (which we are sure is a word being used by the sell-side strategists expecting 4% GDP growth in Q2). Total benefits dropped 9k to 2.67 million - the lowest since Dec 2007. All things considered - America is fixed... so why are bond yields collapsing and GDP so piss-poor? Just like Japanese GDP however, good news appears to be bad news as the US equity market did not flinch on this record-setting jobs print.
Overnight Europe got two mini lessons: i) that rumors spread by conflicted French banks about "imminent" ECB QE don't always, if ever, come true, after the ECB spent a decent portion of the overnight session explaining, via Reuters, that while the central bank would engage in "some stimulus for the euro zone economy but falls short of the large-scale effect the ECB could unleash with a major program of quantitative easing (QE) - money printing to buy assets. Such a QE plan is still some way off." Precisely as we warned. The other lesson is that when QE or even hopes of QE fade, bonds get bid due to rotation out of equities into "safe haven" assets. As a result, German Bund yields tumbled with stops taken out (and Goldman stopped out on their Bund short) through the 12 month lows of 1.4% with 10 Year yields following lower and dropping to 2.565% hours ago, or a level not seen since November 1.
The Wall Street Journal appears to be saving money by dispensing with journalists and using human drop boxes instead. Thus in the New York markets the “Hilsenramp” signal is already a well-known event which occurs at approximately 3pm on/during/after Fed meeting days, and is posted under the byline of “Jon Hilsenrath”. In simple packaged form it provides fast money speculators with a message from the B-Dud, otherwise known as William Dudley, President of the New York Fed, on why the Fed will back-up another run at still higher record highs. So today comes a drop box message with respect to ECB policy posted under the byline of “Brian Blackstone”.
Cruising through earnings, it is now time to revisit certain indicators that speak to the underlying health of the economy and that of the US equity and Treasury bond market.
Is there anything fundamental to explain why the equity indices of the "Fragile Five" countries, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India and Turkey, have regained their recent highs? According to GaveKal the answer is a resounding no: "As investors, we like equity rallies to be propelled by fundamental factors, like earnings re-ratings or growth surprises. But there is little behind this rally to suggest any sustainable economic healing." So what is pushing this particular subset of risk higher? Why the global liquidity tsunami of course.