As the pound resumes its post-flash-crash, post-May-Brexit-debate bounce, Goldman's Silvia Ardagna warns of much more downside pressure to come for Sterling with a cumulative depreciation of as much as 25% by year-end.
Remember when two weeks ago the China Beige Book warned that "It’s A Lot More Negative Than People Think" in the world's second biggest economy? Well after months of complacency about the Chinese economy and financial risks emanating from its $35 trillion financial sector, overnight the world got a rude awakening when China export figures tumbled, signalling a deeper slowdown than many anticipated just as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates.
Global stocks are pressured this morning after a plunge in the Thai stock market and currency on concerns about the king's health and Fed hikes coupled with some more bad news out of Samsung which cut profit estimates by a third, while European stocks are suffering after Swedish telecom giant Ericsson issued a profit warning, sending its shares plunging 17%.
"I am doubtful that the price of oil can rise very high, for very long. Our oil price problem is part of a much larger problem. Once we understand the reason for our low-price problem–diminishing returns and the economy’s tie to the use of energy - it is clear that there is no way out of the problem over the longer term."
Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.
"The advent of non-bank liquidity providers such as HFTs has reduced bid ask spread and increased market efficiency in FX markets, but at the cost of lower market depth and withdrawal of liquidity provision in periods of stress."
When this crisis accelerates, investors will run away from the bond market and seek safety in stocks, USD currency and gold. It will be a scene, unlike any you’ve seen before and understanding why it will happen and having the correct investment strategies will not only make you happy and calm – it will also make you the star at dinner parties. And when others ask you how did you know, you begin with the least talked about factor in the investment world – interest rates.
"I initially doubted what I saw on my screen.... This is not something you would expect in a half-efficient market. We have a liquidity situation which has eroded massively over the last few years and policy makers have largely ignored it.
U.S. equity index futures fell, with European, Asian stocks also declining before the September payrolls data, following the stunning 2-minute "flash crash" meltdown in sterling which plunged as much as 6.1%, the most since Brexit and is set for its biggest weekly loss since 2009.
Does being the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund mean never having to say sorry? As Christine Lagarde blunders on from one mishap to another with apparent insouciance, it would appear so.