fixed

Goldman's Clients Are Confused About Inflation: Here's Why

The US inflation outlook and its equity investment implications were key topics of discussion during recent visits with clients in Boston, Chicago, and New York. Looking forward, will the rate of inflation in 2018: (a) decelerate, (b) accelerate, or (c) stay about the same? The answer depends on the information source.

Foreigners Scramble To Buy US Debt Every Time Rates Rise

One of the persistent questions in 2017, has been how - with equities at all time highs - are Trasuryies and other corproate bonds so strongly bid, and why is the 10Y still trading at a level that is more suggestive of a deflationary slump than an economic rebound. The answer it turns out, is to be found offshore.

Q2 GDP Misses, Q3 2016 - Q1 2017 All Revised Lower, Core PCE Tumbles

In the latest double negative whammy for the economy, not only did Q2 GDP print fractionally less than expected, at 2.6% vs consensus expectations of 2.7%, but Q1 GDP of 1.4% was also revised slightly lower, from 1.4% to 1.2%, while the Fed's favorite inflationary metric, core PCE, tumbled from a downward revised 1.8% to 0.9%.

"We May Be Very Close To The Turning Point": Selloff Blamed On This Note From JPM's Marko Kolanovic

"Growth in short volatility strategies in a self-fulfilling manner suppresses both implied and realized volatility. This in turn prompts other investors to increase leverage, and those that hedge with options lose out and eventually throw in the towel. The fact that we had many volatility cycles since 1983, and are now at all-time lows in volatility, indicates that we may be very close to the turning point."

The Fed Remains On Course... To Trouble

"If the Fed were to shed just 64 percent of its current bond holdings, the base money supply in the US banking system would be completely wiped out, making the banking sector effectively illiquid. In this process, US interbank interest rates would presumably spike, sending shock waves through the economic and financial system, not only in the US but worldwide."

Draghi Did Not Keep His Promise

"The threat to the euro is today greater than it was in 2012, and for that Draghi has completely failed. It comes not in Target II imbalances and Greek default penalties, but in political upheaval tied directly to what it is that Mario Draghi can’t seem to figure out. He can promise all he wants, but Europe’s fate will not be determined by his euro."

Global Stocks Jump, Crude Booms As Yellen Looms

S&P futures were fractionally higher (+0.1% to 2,476) with all eyes on the Fed's rate decision as investors await another earnings deluge from companies including Facebook, Coca-Cola and Boeing. Asian and European shares were also higher, the Dollar rebound continued while oil rose above $48 as copper hit a two year high.

Central Bankers 'Are' The Crisis

"If there’s one myth - and there are many - that we should invalidate in the cross-over world of politics and economics, it‘s that central banks have saved us from a financial crisis. It’s a carefully construed myth, but it’s as false as can be. Our central banks have caused our financial crises, not saved us from them."