• williambanzai7
    09/16/2014 - 12:16
    I have tons of good stuff to post, but this morning I'm feeling something like this...

fixed

Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Higher On Geopolitical Tensions Which Are Either Easing Or Looming





Since there is nothing on today's data docket, it will be all about, you guessed it, geopolitical risks, where "consensus" is best summarized by these two Bloomberg headlines:

  • Stay USD Long as Geopolitical Risks Loom
  • USD is mixed and world stock markets rise as concerns over geopolitical risks ease

That pretty much covers it, although in addition to the Ukraine civil war one can now add an Iraq coup to the list of geopolitical fiascoes instigated by US foreign policy.

 
Marc To Market's picture

What We Will Likely Learn in the Coming Days





Overview of the investment climate and the likey impact from data and events, delivered in dispassionate, even if dry prose. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: How The Destruction Of The Dollar Threatens The Global Economy





The failure to understand money is shared by all nations and transcends politics and parties. The destructive monetary expansion undertaken during the Democratic administration of Barack Obama by then Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke began in a Republican administration under Bernanke’s predecessor, Alan Greenspan. Republican Richard Nixon’s historic ending of the gold standard was a response to forces set in motion by the weak dollar policy of Democrat Lyndon Johnson. For more than 40 years, one policy mistake has followed the next.  Each one has made things worse. What they don’t understand is that money does not “create” economic activity.

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Breaks Out As Tensions In Middle East, With Russia Intensify - Technicals and Fundamentals Positive





Gold is nearly 2% higher this week and its technical position has further improved (see key charts). On Wednesday, gold broke out of bullish descending wedge chart pattern that has formed in recent months. Another buy signal for gold came when gold rose above the 20 EMA and 50 EMA (exponential moving averages). Also positive is the fact that the price momentum oscillator (PMO) has turned up, indicating that a positive momentum shift has occurred.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Saxo's Steen Jakobsen Blasts "The Market's So Complacent, I Want To Scream"





We've largely ignored geo-political risks, ignored a slowdown in European growth, ignored the fact that Germany is deteriorating fast while increasing the amount of risk we take. That's the view of Saxo Bank's Steen Jakobsen who exclaims in this brief clip that "the market is so one sided and complacent," he feels a need to scream. Steen is urging traders and investors to take a serious reality check, pointing out that this decline is illustrated perfectly well on fixed income markets.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Soar Back To Green, Dax Over 9000 On Russian Tweet Putin Ready To De-escalate





Wonder why moments ago futures soared and wiped out all overnight losses of nearly 15 points, pushing into the green, the DAX surging back over 9000 and the USDJPY right back to its cozy tractor-beam manipulated level of 102.000, just as the NY Fed's Kevin Henry walked through the door? The culprit: the following two tweets (yes, really) which were caught by Bloomberg and the other newswires and blasted as a done deal...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

European Stocks Enter Correction, Though Strong USDJPY Levitation Cuts Most Of US Futures Losses





Late yesterday, after Nobel peace prize-winning president Obama revealed his latest military incursion, years of pent up can-kicking almost caught up with futures, which dared to tumble by a whopping 0.7%, a move which hit Europe far more than the US, and shortly after Europe's open, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index dropped 10% from its 2014 high, marking an official correction in Europe where the Dax continues to be the key risk indicator, and which dropped as low as 8,903 before recovering to a drop of only 0.9% while German Bunds continues to print record highs day after day on fears what the escalating Russian trade war will do to the German economy, and other such "costs." US futures meanwhile have seen most of their losses recovered thanks to the usual relentless low volume USDJPY levitation, which pushed ES down to just -0.2% after a nearly four times greater drop. Still, while futures may be surging, the 10 Year has not gotten the memo and remains stuck just above 2.36% or its lowest print since June 2013, a clear indication that at least the bond market has given up all hope of a so-called US recovery for the conceivable future. What is most important however, is that at this pace, the Friday confidence effect, i.e., a green close, may be recovered: let's all just wait and see what the NY Fed trading desk decides to do, and escalating world wars aside, let's just pretend that HY didn't just sugger the biggest weekly HY outflow in history didn't just take place.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Financialization Of American Business: How Cheap Debt Fuels The Bubble, Not Growth





Monetary central planning is failing to achieve Keynesian “escape velocity” because it has deeply impaired the engines of capitalist enterprise. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the grotesque financialization of American business that has occurred since the 1980s. As usual, this deformation is rooted in the massive growth of debt carried by non-financial businesses. At the end of the day, there is no mystery as to why trend GDP growth has fallen to just 1.8% per annum since the year 2000 - a rate which is barely half its trend during the previous half-century. Monetary central planning inherently deforms market capitalism by flooding the business sector with cheap debt, thereby turning it into an engine for the redistribution of existing wealth rather than the generation of new growth, jobs and enterprise.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

UltraLong Bond Madness – Issuance Of 30 Year+ Maturity Debt Soars 22% In 2014





Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal published an article highlighting the surge in what it calls “ultralong” bonds, defined as having a maturity of more than 30 years. The findings are simply stunning. In what may seem counterintuitive, bond yields at hundred year plus lows in many countries has led major investment firms to rush into ever riskier and longer duration fixed income securities just to earn some income. This has opened the floodgates to governments and corporations looking to lock in low yields on debt they won’t have to pay back for a generation. Just to name a few, this year we have already seen a 100-year bond sale by Mexico, two separate 50-year bond issuances by Canada, and wait for this one, Spain of all countries is set to try to sell a 50-year bond!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Europe Continues To Deteriorate Leading To Fresh Record Bund Highs; All Eyes On Draghi





There were some minor fireworks in the overnight session following the worst Australian unemployment data in 12 years reported previously (and which sent the AUD crashing), most notably news that the Japanese Pension Fund would throw more pensioner money away by boosting the allocation to domestic stocks from 12% to 20%, while reducing holdings of JGBs from 60% to 40%. This in turn sent the USDJPY soaring (ironically, following yesterday's mini flash crash) if only briefly before it retraced much of the gains, even as the Pension asset reallocation news now appears to be entirely priced in. It may be all downhill from here for Japanese stocks. It was certainly downhill for Europe where after ugly German factory orders yesterday, it was the turn of Europe's growth dynamo to report just as ugly Industrial Production which missed expectations of a 1.2% print rising only 0.3%. Nonetheless, asset classes have not seen major moves yet, as today's main event is the ECB announcement due out in less than an hour. Consensus expects Draghi to do nothing, however with fresh cyclical lows in European inflation prints, and an economy which is clearly rolling over from Germany to the periphery, the ex-Goldmanite just may surprise watchers.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Gold And What The High Priests Of Funny Money Don't Want You To Know





Steve Forbes has had enough of the Federal Reserve and its "sinning" policies to undermine the dollar. In this brief interview with Birch Gold Group, the publisher and CEO of Forbes, Inc. exposes the damage that the central bank has created, "Bernanke was a disaster...has totally mucked up the credit markets." Blasting Janet Yellen "who needs to go to re-education camp," Forbes explains why he believes so strongly in the gold standard, and the one single scenario under which he would ever sell his gold.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Wall Street Isn't Fixed: TBTF Is Alive And More Dangerous Than Ever





Practically since the day Lehman went down in September 2008 Washington has been conducting a monumental farce. It has been pretending to up-root the causes of the thundering financial crisis which struck that month and to enact measures insuring that it would never happen again. In fact, however, official policy has done just the opposite. The Fed’s massive money printing campaign has perpetuated and drastically enlarged the Wall Street casino, making the pre-crisis gamblers in CDOs, CDS and other derivatives appear like pikers compared to the present momentum chasing madness. In a nutshell, the Fed’s prolonged regime of ZIRP and wealth effects based “puts” under risk assets has destroyed two-way markets.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2014's Biggest Equity, Bond, And FX Market Moves





In the first seven months of 2014, Goldman notes that equity, fixed income, and FX markets were most intently focused on the labor market with a number of the largest moves occurring due to employment reports and jobless claims. The equity market responded to a mix of economic, monetary policy, and geopolitical news. The fixed income market focused on employment reports, although other factors also resulted in large one-day moves. The dollar, although less volatile than usual, did move on both US economic developments and news out of Europe.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Loudest Warning Yet: "This Stage Should Lead To Increased Risk... System Less Able To Deal With Such Episodes"





"Suppression of yield and vol induces investors to take on more risk (QE III). The market clings to perception of certainty regarding outcomes, despite the Fed shifting commitment modes from time or level-based to data dependent. This stage of policy should eventually lead to increased uncertainty and risk."  Translation: the TBAC itself - i.e., America's largest banks - whose summary assessment this is, is now actively derisiking.

 
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