Tyler Durden's picture

"Total Capitulation" - Biggest Weekly Equity Outflow On Record

If anyone was curious why the Fear and Greed index is at 13 (up from 5) despite the biggest 2-day surge in the Dow Jones ever, the answer is very simple: nobody believes the "broken market "any more, as confirmed by the biggest weekly equity outflow on record.

Reggie Middleton's picture

A Forensic View of a Wall Street Bank Balance Sheet Shows How Much Risk Rests In Its "Assets"

After forensically analyzing Morgan Stanley's balance sheet (which is very much like the rest of Wall Street's balance sheet) I can draw direct parallels to that of Lehman and Bear Stearns in 2007. It's a party!

Tyler Durden's picture

It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington

As Bloomberg reports, "China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter. Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales."

Tyler Durden's picture

Yuan Strengthens Most Since March, China Unveils New Bailout Source After Rescue Fund Runs Out Of Fire-Power

Update: China readies new bailout mechanism - pooling CNY2 Trillion of Pension funds for "investment"

A busy night in AsiaPac before China even opens. Vietnam had a failed bond auction, Japanese data was mixed (retail sales good, household spending bad, CPI just right), Moody's downgrades China growth (surprise!), China re-blames US for global market rout, and then the big one hits - China's bailout fund needs more money (applies for more loans from banks) - in other words - The PBOC just got a margin call. China margin debt balance fell for 8th straight day (although the short-selling balance picked up to 1-week highs). China unveiled some economic reforms - lifting tax exemption and foreign real estate investment rules. PBOC fixesds the Yuan 0.15% stronger - most since March, but even with last night's epic intervention, SHCOMP looks set for its worst week since Lehman.

Tyler Durden's picture

Rutgers University Warns Students - "There Is No Such Thing As Free Speech"

"Things have changed since I started teaching. The vibe is different. I wish there were a less blunt way to put this, but my students sometimes scare me - particularly the liberal ones....The idea that institutions must acknowledge wrongdoing is central to academic work."

BINGO. This is so essential to a functioning, ethical society, and is something that never happens in modern America. Ever.

Tyler Durden's picture

JPM Head Quant Warns Second Market Crash May Be Imminent: Violent Selling Could Return On Thursday

"Price insensitive" flows are starting to materialize, and our goal is to estimate their likely size and timing. These technical flows are determined by algorithms and risk limits, and can hence push the market away from fundamentals.  The obvious risk is if these technical flows outsize fundamental buyers. In the current environment of low liquidity, they may cause a market crash such as the one we saw at the US market open on Mondaay"

Tyler Durden's picture

An Unprecedented Shift in The Oil-Dollar Correlation Regime

WTI Crude just surged from $38.50 to over $41 and at the same time the USD Index has been surging. In fact, the correlation regime between these two seemingly negatively correlated assets has entirely shifted since last week's FOMC Statement.

Tyler Durden's picture

September Rate Hike Back On Table: Q2 GDP Soars In Revision From 2.3% To 3.7% Driven By Record Inventory Build

Well, if the Fed is truly data-dependent, September is now squarely back on the table following the first revision of (double seasonally-adjusted) Q2 GDP data which soared from 2.3% to a whopping 3.7%, blowing out the Wall Street consensus estimate of 3.2%, and printing above the highest Wall Street forecast (the 3.6% from JPM). The reason for the surge was simple: from an inventory build of $124 in the first GDP estimate, the BEA now sees a total of $136.2 billion in inventory build in Q2. This is an all time record, and a number which suggests the upcoming inventory liquidation will be truly epic, not to mention recessionary.

Tyler Durden's picture

What Would Happen If Everyone Joins China In Dumping Treasurys?

On Tuesday evening, we quantified the staggering cost of China’s near daily open FX operations in support of the yuan. In short, the new currency regime has led the PBoC to dump more US paper in the past two weeks than it had YTD. In conclusion, we asked if anyone else was set to join China in liquidating US Treasurys at a never before seen pace. Here's the answer and what it means for the US economy and monetary policy going forward.

Tyler Durden's picture

China Devalues Yuan To Fresh 4-Year Lows, Arrests Top Securities Firm Exec As Stocks Slide Despite Rate Cuts

Update: Chinese Police arrested managing director Xu Gang of China's No.1 brokerage CITIC Securities

The Asia morning begins mixed in stock markets, The PBOC explains itself "this is not a shift in monetary policy," - except it is the first such set of measures since 2008, further deleveraging as China margin debt drops CNY1 Trillion from June peak to lowest since March, Regulators begin probing securities firms (and their malicious short sellers), Index futures trading fees will be raised and trading positions restricted. Stocks are limping only modestly higher (after the rate cuts) as Yuan is fixed at 6.4043 - the lowest since August 2011.

Tyler Durden's picture

1929 And Its Aftermath - A Contra-Keynesian View Of What Really Happened

A half-century ago, America - and then the world - was rocked by a mighty stock-market crash that soon turned into the steepest and longest-lasting depression of all time. Those who ignore the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it - except that now, with gold abandoned and each nation able to print currency ad lib, we are likely to wind up, not with a repeat of 1929, but with something far worse...

Tyler Durden's picture

China Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate By 25bps, Cuts RRR By 50bps

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