Tyler Durden's picture

"Data Dependent" Fed Ignores Data But Valuations Matter

With the ECB and the Fed policy meetings now behind us, all eyes will turn back to economics and earnings. Unfortunately, neither one of those are particularly supportive at this juncture.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Dream Is Over - Baltic Dry Bounce Ends

Despite its 98% crash from 2008 highs, and its plunge to record (35 year-plus) lows, the recent rally (off sub-300 lows) sparked a wave of exuberance with such luminaries as Jim Cramer proclaiming this a sign that everything is fixed again in China. Having risen non-stop since Feb 10th, coincidentally the same time that the entire world suddenly and unexplainedly went full risk-on short-squeeze buy-buy-buy, The Baltic Dry Index dropped today - which should not surprise many as China's Containerized Freight Index crashes to record lows...

Tyler Durden's picture

Bad News For The Bears: Gartman Will Be Long VIX Until The S&P Hits 2,118

"We “punted” on the short side of the equity market, but this time doing so by buying volatility; that is, we bought the VXX volatility index ETF listed on the NYSE upon the market’s opening. We’re giving this a rather wide birth and are willing to allow the equity market to move 5% against us before exiting the trade and that means a move by the S&P to and through 2118" - Dennis Gartman

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Be very wary of the, "choices," that you are, "given."

The owners don't really care if we cheer for the black and gold team, or the blue and silver team, as long as you do cheer.

Steve H. Hanke's picture

The Hong Kong Dollar: A Speculators Graveyard

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.

Since 1983, when Hong Kong adopted its currency board system, speculative bets against the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) have ended in the graveyard. Just ask Bill Ackerman. He bet the house in a 2011 attach on the HKD, and he lost big. Now, it’s reported that the likes of George Soros and Kyle Bass are rolling the dice against the HKD. They will lose, too.

Tyler Durden's picture

"Data Dependent" Fed Chickens Out Again: Blames "Global" Risks For Unchanged Rates, Cuts Rate Hike Forecast

Not too dovish (upgrade uncertainty), not too hawkish (lowered rate hikes), a goldilocks statement, with just a little less inflation and just a little less GDP growth, and just two more quarter of near-ZIRP rates is what it takes for the world to get it all together. 

Tyler Durden's picture

VIX Plunges To 2016 Lows After Gartman Says "We Are Buyers Of The VIX"

"we are taking a “punt” on the short side of the equity market, but this time we shall do so by buying volatility; that is, we shall buy the VXX volatility index ETF listed on the NYSE and we shall do so upon receipt of this commentary and the market’s opening"

Tyler Durden's picture

All Eyes On Yellen: Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Meeting Expected To Usher In More Rate Hikes

Today Janet Yellen and the FOMC will go back to square one and try to reset global expectations unleashed by the ill-fated December rate "policy mistake" hike, when at 2pm the Fed will announce assessment of the economy, even if not rate hike is expected today. Just like in December the Fed will be forced to telegraph that it is hiking rates as a signal of a strengthening US, and global, economy where "risks are balanced" and hope that the subsequent global reaction will not be a rerun of what happened in January and February when confusion about the Fed's intentions led to a global market rout.

Tyler Durden's picture

China Freight Index Collapses To Fresh Record Low

The Baltic Dry Index has risen for the last few weeks, buoyed by hopes (a la Iron Ore) of a National People's Congress stimulus surge from China. While the scale of the 'bounce' is negligible in real terms compared to the total collapse, it has caused such momentum-muppets as Jim Cramer to proclaim China 'fixed' and investible. So we have one quick question - if everything is awesome, why did the China Containerized Freight Index just crash to new record lows?


Tyler Durden's picture

This Is What Happens When A Short Squeeze Ends

Remember last week, when China was "fixed" because after the National People's Congress a record-smashing short-squeeze hyped on the back of stimulus hope sent Iron Ore prices soaring 20% in a day? Well that's all over...

Tyler Durden's picture

One Week After Trolling Zero Hedge For Being Negative, Jefferies Posts Worst Quarter Since Financial Crisis

Moments ago Jefferies, which is still on the investment banking cycle of reporting where its earnings (and in this case, losses) arrive one month ahead of the other banks, and as such is a good bellwether into overall Wall Street revenue trends, reported an absolute disaster of a quarter, its worst since the financial crisis.

Tyler Durden's picture

Central Bank Rally Fizzles: Equity Futures Lower As Attention Turns To "Hawkish Fed" Risk

While Asia was up on China's bad data, and Europe was higher again this morning to catch up for the Friday afternoon US surge, US equity futures may have finally topped off and are now looking at this week's critical data, namely the BOJ's decision tomorrow (where Kuroda is expected to do nothing), and the Fed's decision on Wednesday where a far more "hawkish announcement" than currently priced in by the market, as Goldman warned last night, is likely, in what would put an end to the momentum and "weak balance sheet" rally.

Tyler Durden's picture

Japan Is "Fixed" - Machine Orders Suddenly Spike By Most In Over 13 Years

The Aussies did it with their employment data (and then admitted it), and now we see Japan's Economic and Social reserch Institute post the most ridiculous macro print ever. Over 4 standard deviations from expectations and almost double the highest expectations, Japan Machinery Orders spiked 15.0% MoM - the biggest since Jan 2003. We presume this means that Japan is "fixed" and there will be no need for additional extraordinarily idiotically experimental monetary policy this week...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Down The Trump Rabbit Hole - Manufacturing Consent

Thus Donald Trump and his rebel yell, the great white hope (in distinct contrast to the 2008 great black hope), is simply a reflection of the escalation of Empire’s attempt to control whatever it perceives as a threat.

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