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What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.

Goldman's 10 Most Important Questions For 2017

Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about growth in 2017, for three reasons: first, despite the lack of spare capacity, US recession risk remains below the historical average; second, financial conditions should remain a growth tailwind - at least in the first half of 2017; and third, we expect a fiscal easing accumulating to 1% of GDP by 2018. However, uncertainty remains and here is what Jan Hatzius and his team believe are the ten most important questions for 2017.

Why Politicians Are To Blame For Most Terrorist Attacks

In over-reacting, governments and media play into the hands of the terrorists who want to create fear and demonstrate their strength, but whose greatest gains come when they provoke an exaggerated self-destructive response. There is a dangerous disconnect in the minds of governments and news organisations between what happens in the war in Iraq and Syria and the long-term consequences this has on the streets of Europe.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

How Government Regulation Makes Us Poorer

"...the issue of exploitation, and especially how to get rid of it, is a matter of finding the real and ultimate cause of the situation. It’s usually not a matter of employers having “power” over the worker. Such power does not occur naturally, but is caused by something, and my argument suggests that the employers’ economic power is a symptom, but not the cause. The real cause is government regulation."

The War On Terrorism Just Keeps Making It Worse

The war on terror has failed more demonstrably than most wars: al-Qaeda numbered in the hundreds in 2001, but today – along with ISIS – it has tens of thousands of fighters and supporters spread across dozens of countries. Political leaders are not blameless, but they tend to be blamed for the wrong thing.

The Christmas Truce And The Future Of War

How widespread do you think it really was and do we make more of the Christmas Truce than we ought to because it’s so hopeful, in other words, it’s something we want to believe in? "...the threat that would be posed to the establishment, to the generals, and the politicians by having rank and file soldiers, sort of awakened to the idea of the preposterousness of the war."

Top Ex-White House Economist Admits 94% Of All New Jobs Under Obama Were Part-Time

We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Obama's former top White House economist Alan Krueger. In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment, but low-paying temp, on-call, contract workers, independent contractors or freelancers.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Five 3-Standard-Deviation Price-Moves Post-Election

The financial markets - post-Trump - have moved in an unprecedented manner over the last few weeks. How unprecedented? Imagine getting in an elevator to come face to face with 5 six-foot-six individuals...every day for a month.