The Red Pill

The Matrix was a movie released on 33-11-999, or as more commonly formatted (in the USA), 3-31-1999.  In the 14 years since it's debut it has become one of the most influential cultural icons of any generation, not only here in America but throughout much of the globe.  Everyone, at least those ones in Western sphere societies, somehow, can readily identify with it.  I wonder why?

Pinning the blame for the collapse of the Cypriot banking system (and the country itself) on the shoulders of one man may seem harsh but Laiki Bank's chief risk officer Dimitris Spanodimos represents the tip of the spear of mass delusion that encompasses most (if not all) of Europe. Cypriot banks had been swamped with deposits courtesy of their cozy relationship with Russia and this left them with, in Spanodimos' words, "comfortable liquidity and capital position to deepen selectively some highly profitable and highly promising client relationships." In short, they had so much excess that they had to invest it somewhere and given the regulators light tough (which gave the banks a clean bill of health through 2011), they bought Greek government debt and extending huge amounts of mortgage loans (in Greece and Cyprus). So, as the WSJ reports, while everyone else was purging, Spanadimos had swallowed the red pill and decided his banks' gorging on extremely risky investments was tolerable - until of course the EU pulled the plug with the haircuts from the Greek bailout. These losses, and the need for new capital, is why Cyprus needed a bailout - so who is to blame...

Few would argue that markets are almost entirely apathetic to even the worst and most negative of headlines in this post-crisis world. As we noted earlier, it seems we are 'shell-shocked' at a 'recovery' that UBS describes as 'not exactly an uplifting experience' – global growth went straight from 'collapse' to 'mid cycle' without ever enjoying the healing properties normally associated with a one to two year recovery process. For economists, one interesting question is whether this 'new normal' is unduly influencing economic sentiment. We would somewhat expect traders/managers to be behaving in an increasingly agitated manner; jumping at sudden noises, overreacting to shifts in economic data and generally exhibiting signs of stress, economic hysteria, and volatility. In reality, both consumers and businesses have become quite blasé about the economy. Sentiment is actually a lot less volatile than the economic circumstances would normally suggest it should be, and so (via UBS) we present 'The Indifference Indicator' to track just how 'subdued' regions have become.

Whether it is a fringe-blog pointing out the statistical un-possibility (here and here), or a previously well-respected 'elite' pointing out the suspiciousness (here), most of the general public (or their media-based oracles) prefer not to swallow the red pill of reality with regard Friday's data SNAFU. However, given the political (and economic) consequence of a single-number, Gallup has decided to weigh in on reality as they note "even though the Household survey tends to be very volatile, this decline seems to lack face-validity, particularly after the prior month's numbers" as they analyse why the household results should be discounted heavily. Critically, they, like us, suggest the 'unemployment rate' needs to be replaced as a measure of joblessness, suggesting a far simpler (and more transparent) measure - Payroll-to-Population - would avoid the 'adjustments' and 'biases' that are inherent in the BLS's bafflement. The Gallup measure suggests, as one would perceive using common-sense, that the real jobs situation was essentially unchanged last month.

Confirming the dismal picture of advanced economy import and export declines we discussed yesterday, the following chart provides everything you need to know about the world's economic quagmire but were afraid to ask. Of course, all the time the central-printers of the world are willing to debauch themselves there will be momentum-chasing monkeys to maintain the blue-pill illusion of a healthy stock market as indicative of a healthy economy - but should you choose to swallow the red pill, this chart of a plunging global trade volume may raise anxiety levels a little above their current multi-year lows.

Today at 12:45pm will be the 4th and final lecture given by the CTRL+P spinmaster himself to young and easily impressionable GW students. The propaganda tour will conclude as Ben shares his views on the "The Aftermath of the Crisis" where we will most certainly learn that the primary consequence is a parabolically rising global balance sheet, where $7 trillion in excess liquidity has been dumped in the world in the past 5 years by the big 5 central banks. That and the fact that virtually all energy commodities are trading at or near all time records. We will likely also learn that while it is speculators' fault that gas is at an all time high for this time of year, it is not speculators fault that the S&P is at a 4 year high. In fact, we will learn a whole lotta stuff that those who took the red pill some time ago, may have forgotten. Watch it live below.

When it comes to the New Normal, there are just two precedents: complacent and doomed debt slaves, such as Greece, which continues to voluntarily hand over any and all of its real assets to the vampiric banking oligarchy in exchange for simply being the member of a doomed club, while trembling at constant threats of fire and brimstone if it dares to split away from its monetary parasites (and where unemployment rises by 3% in one quarter), or the rare success story such as Iceland, which showed the bankers a middle finger, took the red pill and disconnected from the globalization matrix. And while even Bloomberg recently extolled the virtues of the Iceland "case", which will likely be solitary until the entire ponzi scheme comes crashing down, we are heartened when we observe all incremental milestones of further economic and financial success by the one country that dared to call the banker bluff, and won. Such as this press release from the IMF.

A short piece that explains the moral dillemma the Germany faces with regards to the Eurozone.  

Today, gold and silver mining stocks offer the best value by far of any sector in any stock market anywhere in the world. Due to the recent massive volatility that bankers have introduced into the PM stock sector, and the fact that commercial investment advisers worldwide have erroneously re-educated millions of people with the concept that volatility equals risk, the majority of people worldwide will miss a massive opportunity in gold and silver mining stocks over the next several years due to their misguided belief that gold and silver mining stocks cannot escape the throes of banker manipulation.

Most of the time you hear the term “useful idiots” it is used in a totally pejorative sense. I think this is wrong. A “useful idiot” is actually not really an idiot, rather it is someone who is ignorant and therefore can be manipulated by those that are not ignorant to do as they desire. I mean who reading this was not a “useful idiot” at some point? I know I was. For most of my career on Wall Street that is exactly what I was. I worked in finance but had no idea how the system actually worked. As a result of my ignorance I was very susceptible to much of the propaganda that was blasted in my ear overtly and subliminally for much of my life. While I have always been cynical and never fell for the garbage either political party spewed, I was ignorant about how the world works and as such I could have been a danger to myself and others. Fortunately, I finally did dig further into the matrix, took the red pill and started writing about what I learned. Eventually I decided to leave Wall Street and pursue a different path. Ok, so is there a point to all this rambling? Of course. The point is that just because there are a lot of “useful idiots” at the Occupy Wall Street protests (just as there were at the Tea Party Protests) that doesn’t mean we should dismiss what is happening or belittle their frustrations. They are merely ships without anchors floating around aimlessly in a sea of ignorance. Rather that mock them right into the hands of bad guys that want to recreate feudalism like Michael Moore, George Soros and Warren Buffett we should educate them.

"The primary trend I see in the markets is the destruction of the purchasing power of all fiat currencies, with the U.S. dollar having the most to lose as the world’s reserve currency. Nothing throws a population into more of a tizzy than a destroyed currency. Similarly, nothing provides a more fertile ground for power hungry control freaks to take over your lives than economic chaos. What has really started getting my attention in the last several months is how the UN seems to be trying to position itself as a “world government” savior of sorts. First, the UN decided it would be a good idea to launch a war in Libya and Obama decided the U.S. would get involved without ever asking Congress for an authorization of force (which according to George Friedman of Stratfor is a first). What is so pathetic is where are the fake liberals in America? Where are the anti-war protests? We are so successfully divided in the fake Republican/Democrat, Red/Blue, Yankees/Mets paradigm of stupidity that the “left” in this country won’t criticize Obama for starting a new war because he is “their guy.” This is pathetic and dangerous because guess what will happen when we get a Republican thug as president that uses the precedents Obama has set to shed even more blood all over the world. Who will protest then and who will care? "

This post has two parts: the first one, or the blue pill part, deals with the mundane,  namely Sarah Palin's brand new $1.75 million, 8,000 square foot house in North Scottsdale, which "sits on 4.4 acres and has a home theater, a billiard room, a walk-in wine room and a "resort style backyard" with a gazebo and pool, according to the listing and listing photographs. The brown, stucco-and-stone house, which was renovated this year, has several fireplaces, a six-car garage and mountain views. The property has a circular driveway and desert landscaping." The second part, which is where one takes the red pill, deals with something far more serious: short sale fraud - yet another facet of the ongoing discovery of just how deep mortgage fraud in this country (in this case by real estate "investors") runs. Only this time it is fraud which results in impairments to the banks (arguably). Yet even then, questions remain...

"On March 14th Bear Stearns collapsed and the first real domino of the financial crisis (at lest as far as public recognition of the situation was concerned) had toppled. However, it wasn’t until September, as Lehman Brothers tottered on the brink of insolvency, that a group of highly influential bankers and politicians decided to take the red pill. The failure of Lehman Brothers was the catalyst that plunged the world deep into The Matrix - an alternate reality in which, everywhere you looked, things were happening that a mere 24 hours earlier, would have seemed unthinkable. We all know about the TARP, we remember wild swings in markets, plummeting oil and commodity prices, frantic deleveraging and nervous Central Bankers and politicians telling us that everything was going to be OK. But as the days and months have ticked by, the reality inside our own Matrix has become more and more skewed. Markets recovered, an eerie calm was gradually restored
and slowly things began to return to a semblance of normal. But what is normal in this new paradigm? Is it normal for the Fed to be buying 70% of all Treasuries? Well it certainly wasn’t until we took the red pill and entered The Matrix...It surely must be clear to anybody that, regardless of the fact that the unemployment situation has stopped deteriorating quite so rapidly and has even begun to show signs of improvement in places (‘green shoots’ anyone?), regardless of the fact that corporate results have actually been, for the most part, quite good and the S&P is trading on decent multiples and regardless of the fact that ‘core’ inflation apparently isn’t a problem - the real world inside The Matrix, the one many vested interests would rather we NOT focus on, is an altogether different story." Grant Williams

"On March 14th Bear Stearns collapsed and the first real domino of the financial crisis (at lest as far as public recognition of the situation was concerned) had toppled. However, it wasn’t until September, as Lehman Brothers tottered on the brink of insolvency, that a group of highly influential bankers and politicians decided to take the red pill. The failure of Lehman Brothers was the catalyst that plunged the world deep into The Matrix - an alternate reality in which, everywhere you looked, things were happening that a mere 24 hours earlier, would have seemed unthinkable. We all know about the TARP, we remember wild swings in markets, plummeting oil and commodity prices, frantic deleveraging and nervous Central Bankers and politicians telling us that everything was going to be OK. But as the days and months have ticked by, the reality inside our own Matrix has become more and more skewed. Markets recovered, an eerie calm was gradually restored
and slowly things began to return to a semblance of normal. But what is normal in this new paradigm? Is it normal for the Fed to be buying 70% of all Treasuries? Well it certainly wasn’t until we took the red pill and entered The Matrix...It surely must be clear to anybody that, regardless of the fact that the unemployment situation has stopped deteriorating quite so rapidly and has even begun to show signs of improvement in places (‘green shoots’ anyone?), regardless of the fact that corporate results have actually been, for the most part, quite good and the S&P is trading on decent multiples and regardless of the fact that ‘core’ inflation apparently isn’t a problem - the real world inside The Matrix, the one many vested interests would rather we NOT focus on, is an altogether different story." Grant Williams

Despite the title of this piece I do not wish to engage in some inane debate about whether deflation or inflation is the risk...When a money manager of financial assets looks into his future and sees deflation he is correct. When the majority of “Main Street” looks into their future they also correctly see inflation. That is because when you have 40 million Americans on food stamps I am sorry but they have much bigger issues to deal with than the S&P500. So the world we are looking at is where a BLT sandwich could cost $12 and home prices drop another 20%. Investment professionals have a very hard time getting the heads around this concept for some reason but that is the reality we are looking at. Goods that are wanted around the world will rise in price in debased dollars while non-essential items deflate. The Chinese want pork but they could care less about some McMansion in Ohio. There is nothing anyone can do to change this. It is a natural cycle as simple, powerful and inevitable as any cycle in nature. If it must happen, it will happen. - Mike Krieger