10 Year Treasury

What If Hillary Had Won?

Fixed income markets are essentially in a new world; US stocks, by comparison, are in only a slightly better position. The “Trump rally” has only been worth 4-5% when compared to our “What if” Clinton scenario. Realistically, it should either be more (if bond markets are right about a breakout in inflation/corporate pricing power) or less (with higher rates pressuring equity valuations in the absence of greater earnings power).

US Financial Markets - Alarm Bells Are Ringing

If any unexpected fundamental news should emerge that throw doubt on the beliefs so widely held by market participants of late, a sizable surge in market volatility is likely to ensue.

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events..."

Something Wicked This Way Comes

"The narrative about an improving economy, thriving jobs market, and glorious future is bullshit. I know it. You know it. And your establishment puppeteers know it. But only “fake news” sites would dare reveal these inconvenient truths."

"Obama Set Up The Next President For A Major Recession"... And A Giant Crash Is Coming

The past many months have carried a lot of noise about the coming crash, about a tipping point that may be fast approaching. The economics are simply giving way, and they can’t hold the illusion forever. Now that Donald Trump will be calling the shots, the money powers can usher in collapse if they wish, and have ready their scapegoat.

'Grey Champion' Assumes Command, Part 2

Seventy year old Donald Trump has assumed the Grey Champion flagstaff. In an increasingly chaotic world, normal working class Americans in flyover country were seeking a leader who could bring order, defeat the corrupt establishment, make tough decisions, and capture the zeitgeist of this moment in history. The ruling elite oligarchs and their fawning minions are infuriated the peasants have dared to resist. In their secretive secure spaces, the elites are plotting with one purpose in mind – this uprising must be quelled.

S&P 500 To Open At All Time Highs After Japan Soars, Yen Plunges On JPY10 Trillion Stimulus

S&P 500 futures are set to open at new all time highs, with global stocks rallying as the yen weakened and the Nikkei soared on speculation Japan is about to unveil the first instance of "helicopter money"-lite, as well as due to a continuation of better-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Further speculation that Italy's (and Europe's) insolvent banks will be bailed out has further boosted sentiment.

ETF Securities Reports Biggest One-Day Gold Inflow Since Financial Crisis

It never ceases to amaze how vastly different the investment styles of gold paper vs physical traders are: while we have documented previously how the latter tend to buy progressively more the lower the price, "investors" in paper-derivatives such as ETFs and ETPs are quite the opposite, where only momentum matters. Once a reflexive buying spree is unleashed, paper buying begets even more paper buying. Nowhere is this more evident than in today's daily report of ETF Securities, where "inflows into gold ETPs of US$263mn on Friday 1st July were at their highest since inception."

"What If?"

Here are five market counterfactuals – “What ifs” – all anchored in a prior reality: where the world was 155 days ago, at the end of 2015; to both illustrate why large cap U.S. equities just closed near their highest levels of 2016 and consider the conventional wisdom about whether the current rally is sustainable.