If oil were to drop back under $40, not only would it precipitate even more selling of oil as momentum strategies flip, but it would catalyze a liquidation by those SWFs who thought they were done selling equities, leading to a return of the same sellers that pushed the S&P back to the low 1,900s a short 6 months ago. So for all those curious where stocks are going next, the simple answer is: keep an eye on what oil does next.
The Saudi circular ref (low oil prices -> budget deficits -> more oil pumping -> even lower oil prices) continues to iterate toward it's ultimate conclusion which (spoiler alert) will not be pleasant... and the banking system bailouts have only just begun.
Today we got the first official confirmation of just how vast the 1MDB money-laundering scheme was and that it stretched to the very top. What is now also confirmed, is that at the heart of the fundraising operation was none other than Goldman Sachs.
Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008, soaring by 300 pips since the Friday close as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged by the most since February as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced with S&P 500 futures. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.
While it may very well not last and all of yesterday's gains could evaporate instantly if the Brexit vote is set to take place as scheduled, all 10 industry groups in the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced, with the index rising 0.7% trimming the week’s drop 1.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed, after equities Thursday snapped their longest losing streak since February. . Oil rose, paring its biggest weekly decline in more than two months. Bond yields around the globe fell.
The New York bank regulator has asked Goldman Sachs to "swiftly report" on its internal review of more than $6 billion in bond sales for 1MDB, Malaysia's failed sovereign wealth fund. In a letter, the New York bank regulator also asked Goldman to provide an overview, by June 14, of every investigation in the U.S. and abroad into its work for the fund. This is bad new for Mr. Kimora Lee.
Although oil has rebounded off the recent lows, the Saudi budget remains stretched and in an attempt to help raise revenues in the short term (and transition away from dependency on oil in the longer term), the government is weighing an income tax on expat workers. There are nine million foreigners living and working in Saudi Arabia said Mufrej Al-Haqbani, the country's labor minister, and Finance Minister Assaf said that there are no plans to tax Saudi nationals.
Every ugly jobs report has a silver lining, and sure enough following Friday's disastrous jobs report, global mining and energy companies rallied alongside commodities after the jobs data crushed speculation the Fed would raise interest rates this month. “The disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday means that a summer Fed rate hike is off the table,” said Jens Pedersen, a commodities analyst at Danske Bank. “That has reversed the upwards trend in the dollar, supporting commodities on a broader basis. The market will look for confirmation in Yellen’s speech later today.”
Who says nothing is made in the USA anymore? Certainly not the well-heeled denizens of the State Department’s diplomatic corps. And they should know. That’s because they’re stationed on the frontlines of the ongoing battle to preserve Uncle Sam’s dominant market share of the global weapons trade.
SUVs in Europe and US now top sales of every other car and China SUV purchases have soared. "Consumers are thinking that a period of plentiful oil supply is here to stay" says Christof Ruhl, head of research at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. All we can say to this is that just as with the last financial crisis, cheap oil is there until its not, and vehicle manufacturers have demand for all of those trucks and SUVs until another crisis hits and they find themselves back in need of a bailout for over committing to those product lines.
Saudi Arabia is planning to hit up the international bond markets for cash for the first time ever as the kingdom grapples with plunging oil revenue. The middle-eastern nation is planning to raise as much as $15 billion in the bond sale.
Government bonds rose and the yen strengthened as investors weighed the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next increase in interest rates and the outlook for inflation. Commodities slid, led by metals, while stocks in Europe declined. Treasury 30-year yields fell for a third day. The yen rose from near this month’s low. Futures on the S&P 500 also declined after initially jumping higher in thinly traded, illiquid tape.