Abu Dhabi

Oil Extends Losses As 'Short-Squeeze' Ammo Is Now Exhausted

WTI Crude is now down 6% from last week's highs, back below $47 as supply concerns (Abu Dhabi production rise and ConocoPhilips' CEO comments) and OPEC freeze talks doubts have combined with the biggest collapse in speculative short positions in history (following the Saudi statement) - removing the last 'short-squeeze' leg of support from this dead-cat-bounce.

Frontrunning: August 19

  • European shares, oil ease as markets return to Fed-watching (Reuters)
  • Brent crude slides, but on track for third week of gains (Reuters)
  • Rio 2016: Lochte’s Teammates, USOC Join With Police in Discrediting Robbery Story (WSJ)
  • OPEC Freeze Wouldn’t Be So Potent as Gulf Rivals Pump More (BBG)
  • Hackers targeted Trump campaign, Republican Party groups (Reuters)

Why Oil Under $40 Will Bring It All Down Again: That's Where SWFs Resume Liquidating

If oil were to drop back under $40, not only would it precipitate even more selling of oil as momentum strategies flip, but it would catalyze a liquidation by those SWFs who thought they were done selling equities, leading to a return of the same sellers that pushed the S&P back to the low 1,900s a short 6 months ago. So for all those curious where stocks are going next, the simple answer is: keep an eye on what oil does next.

Saudi Banks Offered $4BN Bailout To Avoid Liquidity Crisis

The Saudi circular ref (low oil prices -> budget deficits -> more oil pumping -> even lower oil prices) continues to iterate toward it's ultimate conclusion which (spoiler alert) will not be pleasant... and the banking system bailouts have only just begun.

Global Stocks Soar, Pound Surges Most Since 2008 As Brexit Odds Tumble

Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008, soaring by 300 pips since the Friday close as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged by the most since February as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced with S&P 500 futures.  Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.

Global Stocks Rebound As Brexit Odds Decline Following Tragic Death Of UK Lawmaker

While it may very well not last and all of yesterday's gains could evaporate instantly if the Brexit vote is set to take place as scheduled, all 10 industry groups in the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced, with the index rising 0.7% trimming the week’s drop 1.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed, after equities Thursday snapped their longest losing streak since February. . Oil rose, paring its biggest weekly decline in more than two months. Bond yields around the globe fell.

Goldman Fundraising For Failed Malaysian Wealth Fund Probed By NY Bank Regulator

The New York bank regulator has asked Goldman Sachs to "swiftly report" on its internal review of more than $6 billion in bond sales for 1MDB, Malaysia's failed sovereign wealth fund. In a letter, the New York bank regulator also asked Goldman to provide an overview, by June 14, of every investigation in the U.S. and abroad into its work for the fund. This is bad new for Mr. Kimora Lee.

Saudi Arabia To Tax Millions Of Foreign Residents To Raise Cash

Although oil has rebounded off the recent lows, the Saudi budget remains stretched and in an attempt to help raise revenues in the short term (and transition away from dependency on oil in the longer term), the government is weighing an income tax on expat workers. There are nine million foreigners living and working in Saudi Arabia said Mufrej Al-Haqbani, the country's labor minister, and Finance Minister Assaf said that there are no plans to tax Saudi nationals.

Frontrunning: June 6

  • Yellen faces fine balance on Fed rate hike after job growth tumbles (Reuters)
  • Oil Advances as Abu Dhabi Sees $60 Crude on Shrinking Surplus (BBG)
  • China to submit 'negative list' for U.S. investment treaty talks next week (Reuters)
  • Buoyed by attacks on Trump, Clinton heads into pivotal week (Reuters)
  • Clinton's IT aide keeps email server shrouded in mystery (The Hill)

Futures Flat Following Friday's Jobs Fiasco: All Eyes On Yellen Again

Every ugly jobs report has a silver lining, and sure enough following Friday's disastrous jobs report, global mining and energy companies rallied alongside commodities after the jobs data crushed speculation the Fed would raise interest rates this month.  “The disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday means that a summer Fed rate hike is off the table,” said Jens Pedersen, a commodities analyst at Danske Bank. “That has reversed the upwards trend in the dollar, supporting commodities on a broader basis. The market will look for confirmation in Yellen’s speech later today.”

Next Time Someone Says Nothing Is Made In The USA Anymore, Show Them This

Who says nothing is made in the USA anymore? Certainly not the well-heeled denizens of the State Department’s diplomatic corps. And they should know. That’s because they’re stationed on the frontlines of the ongoing battle to preserve Uncle Sam’s dominant market share of the global weapons trade.

Gas-Guzzlers Take Over The Roads Again

SUVs in Europe and US now top sales of every other car and China SUV purchases have soared. "Consumers are thinking that a period of plentiful oil supply is here to stay" says Christof Ruhl, head of research at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. All we can say to this is that just as with the last financial crisis, cheap oil is there until its not, and vehicle manufacturers have demand for all of those trucks and SUVs until another crisis hits and they find themselves back in need of a bailout for over committing to those product lines.