Across the Curve

Stocks Dazed After Trump NAFTA Flop, Tax Plan Disappointment; ECB Looms

European shares are lower, pressured by disappointing results by Deutsche Bank and ending a six-session gain, as Asian equities and S&P futures were little changed after a record-setting rally in world stocks which pushed the MSCI World index to over $50 trillion yesterday, fizzled after Trump released unconvincing tax cut plans prompting traders to "sell the news" while caution set in as the ECB met.

World Stocks Hit All Time High, S&P Futures Rise To Within 1% Of Record

World stocks hit a new record high on Tuesday, with investors still cheering Macron's victory in the first round of the French presidential election, supported by speculation about U.S. tax reform and the overnight report that Trump has conceded on the border wall, eliminating a government shutdown as a potential risk.

Bond Bears Battered To 5-Month Lows But Rate-Hike Bets Top $3.2 Trillion

Since their peak 'shortedness' in mid-January, US Treasury bond bears have covered 500,000 10-year-equivalent contracts, reducing the net speculative short to its lowest since before Thanksgiving 2016. At the same time, however, Eurodollar shorts (bets on Fed rate hikes) have soared to a new record high (over $3.2 trillion notional).

Why China Unexpectedly Hiked Rates 10 Hours After The Fed

The PBOC stressed that its interbank rate hikes simply followed the market's development, thus are not "true" policy rate hikes. Nevertheless, it also listed four classical rate-hike reasons for the interbank rate changes: the economic recovery, rising inflation (particularly that of housing), strong credit growth and Fed's rate hikes.

Bond Yields Are Crashing

With net speculative positioning starting to unwind from its historically record short crowd, yields across the curve (and in Eurodollars) are starting to fall. With 30Y back below 3.00% today, 10Y yields have broken below 2017 closing lows and are near intraday lows back to November. So much for the reflation trade...

ECB Assets Rise Above 36% Of Eurozone GDP; Draghi Now Owns 10.2% Of European Corporate Bonds

As global markets recoil over concerns the Trumpflation trade may be rolling over, the ECB continues to be busy providing the actual levitating power behind near record highs in stocks, and as of the latest update, the ECB's balance sheet rose above €3.72 trillion, equal to over 36% of the entire Eurozone GDP. It also means that Mario Draghi now owns over 10% of the entire European corporate bond market.