European shares are lower, pressured by disappointing results by Deutsche Bank and ending a six-session gain, as Asian equities and S&P futures were little changed after a record-setting rally in world stocks which pushed the MSCI World index to over $50 trillion yesterday, fizzled after Trump released unconvincing tax cut plans prompting traders to "sell the news" while caution set in as the ECB met.
World stocks hit a new record high on Tuesday, with investors still cheering Macron's victory in the first round of the French presidential election, supported by speculation about U.S. tax reform and the overnight report that Trump has conceded on the border wall, eliminating a government shutdown as a potential risk.
It's Sunday night, and traders - stuck until now in three-day holiday weekend purgatory - are desperate to catch up, or rather down to, the Dollar and 10Y yields, while sending gold and the Japanese yen shooting higher once again.
Since their peak 'shortedness' in mid-January, US Treasury bond bears have covered 500,000 10-year-equivalent contracts, reducing the net speculative short to its lowest since before Thanksgiving 2016. At the same time, however, Eurodollar shorts (bets on Fed rate hikes) have soared to a new record high (over $3.2 trillion notional).
The PBOC stressed that its interbank rate hikes simply followed the market's development, thus are not "true" policy rate hikes. Nevertheless, it also listed four classical rate-hike reasons for the interbank rate changes: the economic recovery, rising inflation (particularly that of housing), strong credit growth and Fed's rate hikes.
With net speculative positioning starting to unwind from its historically record short crowd, yields across the curve (and in Eurodollars) are starting to fall. With 30Y back below 3.00% today, 10Y yields have broken below 2017 closing lows and are near intraday lows back to November. So much for the reflation trade...
In December, Japan - the largest holder of Treasuries following China's recent sharp selloff - saw domestic investors dump their holdings of by the most since May 2013. “It was a deer in the headlights moment,” said Zoltan Pozsar, a research analyst at Credit Suisse, and it may be about to get much worse.
Over the past few months interest rates and the value of the dollar have risen sharply, and monetary policy’s quantitative indicators have contracted. These monetary restrictions have worsened the structural impediments to U.S. economic growth that existed before the election and continue today...
As global markets recoil over concerns the Trumpflation trade may be rolling over, the ECB continues to be busy providing the actual levitating power behind near record highs in stocks, and as of the latest update, the ECB's balance sheet rose above €3.72 trillion, equal to over 36% of the entire Eurozone GDP. It also means that Mario Draghi now owns over 10% of the entire European corporate bond market.