Rickards says that Trump “will probably win” and, if he, does stock markets will crash 10% and gold will rise $100 over night ... What Hillary did was appalling and there will be ‘another reckoning on November 8th’
S&P futures and Asian stocks were little changed while European shares fell as the global bonds sell-off deepened on speculation major central banks are moving closer to reining in stimulus, while stocks retreated after disappointing results from companies including Amazon.com and AB InBev.
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.
It turns out that in its buying frenzy, the ECB made a mistake, and according to an explanation provided by an ECB representative, the ECB had to sell a short dated Arkema bond last week it had bought some three weeks ago as it wasn’t eligible under the corporate bond buying program.
World stocks started the week in the red Monday as the dollar touched a 7-month high and U.S. and European government bond yields climbed to their highest since June following the Friday speeches by Eric Rosengren and Janet Yellen which hinted the Fed's next step could be to pursue a steepening of the TSY yield curve the same as the BOJ.
"A hike would be a huge surprise. I think risk assets fall a lot (>2% correction), USD goes up and rates rise, led by the front end."... "Big shock. Rates sell off initially along with risk assets, view hike as a policy error, unless they also crushed the long-term dots."
After yesterday's torrid rally, which sent stocks higher the most in 2 months on the back of Lael Brainard surprisingly dovish comments, we have seen an unexpected profit-taking session overnight in ES, with US equity futures down 0.6%, driven largely by a renewed drop in oil prices which slid after the IEA said a surplus in global markets will last longer than initially estimated, persisting well into 2017 as reported previously.
"So here we go: BoJ ready to commit to go deeper negative rates and experiment with their curve, the Fed is seemingly locked-and-loaded on a hike as global growth rolls over, a deluge of supply into a suddenly wobbly rates backdrop, and a loaded-coil of synthetically low volatility across asset classes…as cross-asset correlations trickle back near multi-year/crisis extremes."
"The impact of the BOJ’s stimulus is that the bond markets worldwide are becoming one market. If there’s a reversal of policy, you can’t rule out that it would roil global debt" said SMBC Nikko Securities. "It would definitely see some pain" added Old Mutual Global.
The latest victims of misinformed global central banking policies are retirees holding "universal life" policies...once again the "prudent" folks who saved for their retirement are exactly the ones being brutally punished for their efforts.
while blowing out unsecured funding rates may no longer be a flashing red flag, a question has emerged as a lot of debt references Libor, debt ranging from household debt to non-financial business debt: some $28 trillion of it, to be specific, and just in the US. The question is just how concerned will the borrowers of said debt be once they get their next due balance.
Moments before today's auction printed just after 1.01pm Eastern, the When Issued was trading at 1.505%, virtually unchanged from last month's 1.504%, yet what a difference a month makes. Whereas last month the 10Y came with a high yield that tailed by 1.2 bps as Indirect bidders tumbled to the lowest since January 2015, today we have seen foreign central banks flood right back, as Indirects took down a whopping 72.2%, just shy of the all time high seen back in May when Indirects were responsible for 73.5% of the issue.