Across the Curve

Why China Unexpectedly Hiked Rates 10 Hours After The Fed

The PBOC stressed that its interbank rate hikes simply followed the market's development, thus are not "true" policy rate hikes. Nevertheless, it also listed four classical rate-hike reasons for the interbank rate changes: the economic recovery, rising inflation (particularly that of housing), strong credit growth and Fed's rate hikes.

Bond Yields Are Crashing

With net speculative positioning starting to unwind from its historically record short crowd, yields across the curve (and in Eurodollars) are starting to fall. With 30Y back below 3.00% today, 10Y yields have broken below 2017 closing lows and are near intraday lows back to November. So much for the reflation trade...

ECB Assets Rise Above 36% Of Eurozone GDP; Draghi Now Owns 10.2% Of European Corporate Bonds

As global markets recoil over concerns the Trumpflation trade may be rolling over, the ECB continues to be busy providing the actual levitating power behind near record highs in stocks, and as of the latest update, the ECB's balance sheet rose above €3.72 trillion, equal to over 36% of the entire Eurozone GDP. It also means that Mario Draghi now owns over 10% of the entire European corporate bond market.

Bonds & Bullion Are Surging As Small Caps Give Up 2017 Gains

Following Friday's plunge in bond and bullion prices, dollar weakness (on Trump's comments), Brexit uncertainty, and looming inauguration appear to have sent a ripple of anxiety through capital markets sending Treasury yields tumbling (6-8bps lower across the curve), gold prices soaring (above $1215), and stocks tumbling (Small Caps back in the red for 2017)...

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."