Across the Curve

AVFMS's picture

27 Nov 2012 – “ You Ain’t Seen Nothin' Yet ” (Bachman-Turner Overdrive, 1974)





Ok. It’s not that the Greek deal is nothing. But then again, third strike. Eventually expected, or at least hoped for. Hence, lack of concrete follow-through. So, now it’s there. And now what? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet? What is there to see??? Pitch the markets some input, something concrete, something to feed off, something to see!

"You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" (Bunds 1,43% +2; Spain 5,51% -9; Stoxx 2538 -0,2%; EUR 1,293 -30)

 
AVFMS's picture

26 Nov 2012 – “ Sailing ” (Rod Stewart, 1975)





Hard pressed to find anything remotely exciting today. Equities losing a little shine, but understandable given last week’s 5% rush (and 14% tightening in Credit). Bonds stuck in range. Fiscal Cliff hailing back (in yet rather timid manner, though). Waiting on Greek rescue revelations. Yawn!

"Sailing" (Bunds 1,41% -3; Spain 5,6% unch; Stoxx 2542 -0,4%; EUR 1,296 unch)

 
AVFMS's picture

21 Nov 2012 – “ Rise To The Occasion” (Climie Fisher, 1987)





Greece? Sorry, what’s with Greece? French downgrade. Unexpected, but then again not that much. So what? Fiscal Cliff? As no one speaks about it, it can be ignored. Risk? If it doesn’t fall, it has to rise.

"Rise To The Occasion" (Bunds 1,43% +2; Spain 5,7% -9; Stoxx 2518 +0,4%; EUR 1,282 +10)

 
AVFMS's picture

15 Nov 2012 – “ Are You Gonna Go My Way? ” (Lenny Kravitz, 1993)





The US crashing close yesterday was cushioned in Europe by better than expected (backward-looking) GDP figures in Germany and France. EZ in recession nevertheless. Limited fall-out, albeit lower (equity) levels tested. Periphery okay’ish, then good on better Italian GDP. Spain tag along with limited own dynamics, mainly trailing Risk assessment. EGBs difficult to move lower from here. Watching the US. Someone. Please. Show the way.

"Are You Gonna Go My Way? " (Bunds 1,34% +0; Spain 5,89% -3; Stoxx 2459% -0,6%; EUR 1,279 +50)

 
AVFMS's picture

13 Nov 2012 – “ That’s The Way ” (Led Zeppelin, 1970)





As Greek discussions overnight revealed a spat between Europe and the IMF, and given yet another closing slump in the US, Risk started on a weak footing with Risk nearing Friday lows, before being ramped up by rumours, showered again and finally supported by the US opening in negative, albeit tame manner, before moving into positive territory and taking everything along. Given the noon despair, the afternoon relief seems…exuberant. Especially as the US still lead the way.

"That's The Way" (Bunds 1,34% unch; Spain 5,83% -5; Stoxx 2494% +0,8%; EUR 1,272 +1)

 
AVFMS's picture

12 Nov 2012 – “ Show Me The Way ” (Peter Frampton, 1975)





Rather quiet. Verdict still out, whether we’ll get a real rebound or whether the last days were already the dead cat bounce, before heading lower. Periphery on the soft side, but with restricted own dynamics and trailing general Risk sentiment. Waiting. For the US to show the way. Or something to happen.

"Show Me The Way" (Bunds 1,34% unch; Spain 5,88% +7; Stoxx 2473% -0,3%; EUR 1,271 unch)

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: November 8





European equities have made tentative progress this morning, led by the technology and basic materials sectors. The European morning was relatively peaceful until a flurry of activity on the back of European sources commenting that Spain are unlikely to seek ESM aid until the end of the year, and the ECB are not in a rush to commence bond-buying using their OMT facility. The delay of expectations of purchases has taken its toll on the Spanish debt markets which, despite completing their 2012 issuance smoothly today, show signs of strain as the 10yr yield breaches 5.81%, and the yield spread approaches 450bps against the German benchmark – the level at which LCH begin to review margin requirements. The pain in Spain has also impacted the EUR currency, with the major EUR/USD pair printing a two-month low of 1.2720 this morning.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Following Traditional Ramp Into The Close, Kevin Henry Can Go Home Now





On this lonely blustery day, with US equity markets closed, long-only managers around the US can go peacefully back to sleep as 'Kevin' has got our back. S&P futures (ES) managed a glorious ramp into the 915ET close to confirm a close above the vertically challenged 1400 level. Volume, as one would expect, is dismal but the 6500 contracts that ran thru in the last 2 minutes makes perfect sense (to someone we are sure). The equity futures market was on its own in this rampapalooza, as Treasuries slid to the lowest yields in two weeks, USD strengthened, and commodities dropped - all leaving ES significantly divergent from CONTEXT (broad risk-assets). Nothing but another episode of illegally Banging the Close (but don't hold your breath for the regulators to prosecute anyone, least of all the Liberty 33 residents) with your friendly New York Fed (and Citadel).  Gold is higher - even with the USD up 0.25%.

 
AVFMS's picture

26 Oct 2012 – “ Doom and Gloom ” (The Rolling Stones, 2012)





If it wasn’t because the government sponsorship doping Q3 US GDP, we wouldn’t have much on the bright side.

European equities still desperate to shoot up. Feels like too many fickle shorts and too many uncomfortable longs at the same time.

Markets uneasy after round-tripping back to OMT / QE unleash levels and no follow-up stimuli to be seen.

 
AVFMS's picture

25 Oct 2012 – “ Karma Police ” (Radiohead, 1997)





Puh… Why don’t we just wait for Apple? They might pitch a maxi iPhone 6? Or so…

Otherwise, rather Bad Karma day.

Flat start, bullish morning, refreshing afternoon. Nothing concrete or fundamental, so it’s a spiritual thing.

 
AVFMS's picture

23 Oct 2012 – “ Lights Out ” (UFO, 1977)





Uuuhh. Yesterday a heart attack and today Lights Out? Then again, markets went up seamlessly with no trigger and can thus slide the same way.

AAPL will need to come up with a helluva surprise mini iPad that does the cooking and bring the kids to school to turn around things overnight.

Spain situation still by far not settled enough to last without some real interventions / decisions.

 
AVFMS's picture

22 Oct 2012 – “ Hurricane Heart Attack ” (The Warlocks, 2002)





Mostly boring.

European equity resilience seems surprising, given the otherwise gloomier mood. No news still played out as being good news and even catch-up to US levels seems a doubtful explanation.

Beats me.

 
AVFMS's picture

11 Oct 2012 – “ Jump ” (Van Halen, 1983)





Stronger Periphery close will be the usual opportunity for politicians to rant about the lack of clout of rating agencies.

Good Jump in Risk appetite. Question is how far. Lack of absence of negative news, or better, markets simply ignoring the latter, doesn’t make for a convincing bullish rebound.

I’d say: We won’t get fooled again! European Bull trap.

 
AVFMS's picture

24 Sep 2012 – “ Raindrops Keep Fallin’ On My Head " (BJ Thomas, 1969)





Uninspiring day. Light ROff, but nothing major.

In absence of hard data, subject to rumours and sentiment. 

Rainy.

 
AVFMS's picture

21 Sep 2012 – “ Turn Them Into Gold " (Ladylike Dragons, 2011)





So after 2 hell of positive weeks with fairy dust sprinkled by the CBU (Central Banks United), things seem a little out of breath here.

Post-Central Bank intervention depression, so to speak, as the question on everyone’s mind is “What’s next?

Add to that soured geopolitics that stirred spirits in Asia, MENA and to some extend in regional Spain.

 
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