• Pivotfarm
    04/18/2014 - 12:44
    Peering in from the outside or through the looking glass at what’s going down on the other side is always a distortion of reality. We sit here in the west looking at the development, the changes and...

Activist Shareholder

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 30





  • Al-Qaeda Links Cloud Syria as U.S. Seeks Clarity on Rebels (BBG)
  • Administration Tells Lawmakers of Evidence Linking Assad to Attack (WSJ)
  • Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper to publish numbers of secret spying orders (CBS)
  • U.S., Switzerland strike bank deal over tax evasion (Reuters)
  • Another Budget Deal Bites the Dust (WSJ)
  • Contemplating Summers Drives Investors to Seek Beltway Expertise (BBG)
  • Austerity Test Looms in Australia as Abbott Pledges Cuts (BBG)
  • Gay Spouses in All States Now Married Under U.S. Tax Law (BBG)
  • Shadow banks face limits to securities trading (FT)
  • EU's Rehn sees European recovery strengthening in 2014 (Reuters) ... or 2015... or 2022... or never?
 


Tyler Durden's picture

US Stealth Drones, Bombers, C-130s In Cyprus?





Update: it appears the photos posted on twitter are fake. Hopefully that means there are no B-2 in the vicinity of Syria.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 27





  • Opposition figure: major decisions on Syria expected within hours (Al Arabiya)
  • Syria challenges U.S. to "produce the evidence" that Assad regime launched chemical attack (CBS)
  • British PM says world must act on Syria, weighs response (Reuters)
  • U.S. Treasury to Hit Debt Limit in Mid-October (WSJ)
  • U.S. could look beyond U.N. Security Council in any Syria strike (Reuters)
  • Nasdaq, NYSE at odds on outage cause as SEC seeks facts (Reuters)
  • Ackman’s J.C. Penney Sale Ends Failed Saga to Agitate for Change (BBG)
  • Zandi, LaVorgna, Blinder, Rattner all is one con puff piece (BBG)
  • Best Buy Founder Schulze Plans Stock Sale to Diversify Assets (BBG) - "diversify assets" = dump overpriced junk
  • Zero Worship: Credit-Card Firms Compete With No-Interest Transfers (WSJ)
  • Len Blavatnik wins $50m in JPMorgan lawsuit (FT)
  • Danone Finds Yogurt’s All Greek as Oikos Chases Chobani (BBG)
 


Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 23





  • Lew warns Congress to strike debt ceiling deal (FT)
  • Central-Bank Moves Blur the View (WSJ)
  • Brazil, Indonesia launch measures to shore up their currencies (FT)
  • More mainstream media reminded about Fukushima - Radioactive ground water under Fukushima nears sea (AP)
  • Fukushima inspectors 'careless', Japan agency says, as nuclear crisis grows (Reuters)
  • New York Banker Arrested on Rape Charges in East Hampton (NYT)
  • This time they mean business, for real: CFTC Moves to Rein In High-Speed Traders (WSJ)
  • Britain operates secret monitoring station in Middle East (Reuters)
  • Moody’s considers downgrading top US banks (FT)
  • China's Bo calls wife mad after she testifies against him (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Sub-New Normal Growth Seen Vexing Next Fed Chief (BBG)
  • SEC calls for cooling-off period for more staff (Reuters)
 


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Bill Ackman's Next Steps On JCPenney In His Own Words (And A Herbalife Bonus)





"While many of you have asked what our plans are for this holding, as with our other investments, we do not disclose in advance what we intend to do in the future for obvious reasons. After our failed proxy contest at Target, we held our investment for more than 19 months until the price rose to a level where we found better uses for capital. We may choose to exit J.C. Penney after more or less time depending on developments at the Company, the stock price, and the availability of other investment opportunities." - Bill Ackman, August 20

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 20





  • So no great rotation into EM? Capital Flows Back to U.S. as Markets Slump Across Asia (BBG)
  • Muslim Brotherhood leader arrested in Egypt (Reuters)
  • Allies Thwart America in Egypt: Israel, Saudis and U.A.E. Support Military Moves (WSJ)
  • Dear Bloomberg: when you buy the loans of a distressed retailer, you are not betting on a rebound, you are betting on being the fulcrum security in a bankruptcy: Kyle Bass Said to Bet on J.C. Penney Comeback With Loan Purchase (BBG)
  • Bubbles Bloom Anew in Desert as Buyers Wager on Las Vegas (BBG)
  • Britain rejects Spanish request for Gibraltar talks (Reuters)
  • U.K. Mortgage Lending Rises to Highest Since Lehman Collapse (BBG)
  • Pension Funds Dispute Math in Detroit Bankruptcy (WSJ)
  • Christie Says Gayness Inborn as He Signs Therapy Measure (BBG)
 


Tyler Durden's picture

Overnight Safety Bid For 10 Year TSYs Offsets USD Weakness, Keeps Futures Rangebound





Following yet another rout in Asia overnight, which since shifted over to Europe, US equity futures have stabilized as a result of a modest buying/short-covering spree in the 10 Year which after threatening to blow out in the 2.90% range and above, instead fell back to 2.81%. Yet algos appear confused by the seeming USD weakness in the past few hours (EURUSD just briefly rose over 1.34) and instead of ploughing head first into stock futures have only modestly bid them up and are keeping the DJIA futs just above the sacred to the vacuum tube world 15,000 mark. A lower USDJPY (heavily correlated to the ES) did not help, after it was pushed south by more comments out of Japan that a sales tax hike is inevitable which then also means a lower budget deficit, less monetization, less Japanese QE and all the other waterfall effect the US Fed is slogging through. Keep an eye on the 10 Year and on the USD: which signal wins out will determine whether equities rise or fall, and with speculation about what tomorrow's minutes bring rife, it is anybody's bet whether we get the 10th red close out of 12 in the S&P500.

 


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What Corporations Spend Their Cash On





While bullish talking heads are quick to point out that corporate earnings have never been higher, they tend to get very quiet the second corporate cash flow generation is mentioned. The reason is simple: where non-GAAP earnings, much of which are vaporware such as exclusions and other adjustment involving addbacks for "non-recurring" events such as Cisco's now annual mass termination announcement are indeed at nosebleed levels, actual corporate cash generation is a shadow if its former self which peaked in 2007 and has never been retraced. The problem is that since corporations generate less cash, they also spend less cash. As the following chart confirms, corporate capital use which peaked at a little over $1.8 trillion in 2007 has yet to be surpassed.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

The Future Ain't What It Used To Be





Analyst expectations for top line growth in the back half of 2013 continue to fade, and worries over a looming “Revenue recession” grow commensurately.   As ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes, the first quarter of 2013 posted an average negative 0.6% revenue comparison for the 30 companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Q2 (with a few companies left to report) looks to be +0.3%.  But back out the financials, and he points out that the number goes negative to the tune of (0.3%).  Analysts are still chopping away at their back half expectations, now down to 1.9% for Q3 and 2.1% for Q4 2013.  Those are down from 4-5% expected comps back in March, so the trend is still clearly not our friend.  As we have pointed out previously, equity markets have been powered by multiple expansion year-to-date, but, as Colas asks (rhetorically) do you really want to pay up at this point in the business cycle for still declining expectations?

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 15





  • This won't end well: Islamists call Cairo protest march as Egypt death toll mounts (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Said to Expect Multiple Fines for Whale Loss (BBG)
  • Ex-bosses at JPMorgan unlikely to face charges in 'Whale' scandal (Reuters)
  • China could target oil firms, telecoms, banks in price probes (Reuters)
  • For once, it's not the weather's fault: U.K. Retail Sales Increase More Than Forecast on Heatwave (BBG)
  • Japanese visits to shrine on war anniversary anger China (Reuters)
  • India Fighting Worst Crisis Since ’91 Seeks to Buoy Rupee (BBG)
  • Japan Signals Corporate Tax Cut a Long Shot as Deflation Eases (Reuters)
  • Indonesia Tackles Graft in Energy Sector (Reuters)
  • Merkel Touts Strength of German Economy (WSJ)
  • and... British stuntman who parachuted into London Olympics opening ceremony as James Bond dies in fall (AP)
 


Tyler Durden's picture

How To Make 7900% In Two Days Thanks To Twitter





A CNBC anchor's friendly hint (to keep monitoring twitter) and a well-timed (SEC reg pre-empted) tweet is all one needs to generate a 'healthy' 7900% gain 'trading' stocks in the US markets. Courtesy of the much-hyped expectations that @Carl_C_Icahn would tweet his next big idea, when the activist dropped the buy signal heard around the world yesterday, the lucky holders of the $480 AAPL Aug Calls saw their position appreciate from a cheap bet at $0.20 to a magnificent $16.00... not a bad return for 140 characters work...

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 14





  • Vocal billionaire activist IRR - 150x: Icahn bought $1 billion of AAPL stock, seeks $150 billion buyback (BBG)
  • BlackBerry Said to Have Sought Buyers Since 2012 (BBG) - for a phone or the entire company?
  • IPhone Fingerprint Reader Talk Boosting Biometric Stocks (BBG) - also, the NSA will need to grow its Utah data center
  • UPS Jet Crashes in Birmingham, Ala. (WSJ)
  • America's Farm-Labor Pool Is Graying (WSJ)
  • Hong Kong Lowers Storm Signal as Typhoon Closes on China (BBG)
  • Indian submarine explodes in Mumbai port (FT)
  • BofA Banker Sued by Regulator Later Joined Fannie Mae (BBG)
  • Software that hijacks visits to YouTube uncovered (FT)
  • Chinese Billionaire Huang Readies Iceland Bid on Power Shift (BBG)
  • China to launch fresh pharmaceutical bribery probe (Reuters)
  • Defeat at J.C. Penney Hurts Ackman as Performance Trails (BBG)
 


Tyler Durden's picture

About iCahn's AAPL Activism, And Those AAPL Bonds





While we congratulate Carl Icahn (or is that iCahn) for once again taking over the spotlight in what has otherwise been a newsflow empty summer doldrum week, and like everyone else, are surprised by his most recent activist target, the country's on-again, off-again most valuable by market cap company, Apple, we do, as we did before when David Einhorn proposed virtually the same activist play, have some questions. Chief among them: how will AAPL fund any proposed expanded buyback or increased dividend using domestic cash?

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: 19 Illegal Immigration Facts You Won't Read In Mainstream Media





Should we broadcast a message to the rest of the world that anyone that can find a way to enter this country and somehow get to a “sanctuary city” can sign up for a plethora of welfare benefits and live a life of leisure at the expense of hard working American citizens?  Yes, this question sounds absurd, but what we have just described will essentially be official U.S. government policy if the immigration bill going through Congress becomes law. Sadly, in politically correct America you can’t even talk about the problem of illegal immigration these days without being labeled as a “racist”. Our immigration system is completely broken, but these days we cannot even have a rational debate about these issues.  In politically correct America, illegal immigrants have become a “favored class” of people that you are never supposed to say anything bad about. The following are 19 very disturbing facts about illegal immigration that every American should know...

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 7





  • Libor Settlements Said to Ease CFTC’s Path in Rate-Swaps Probe (BBG)
  • Manhattan Homes Under $3 Million Never Harder to Buy (BBG)
  • Just two years late: Abe Pledges Government Help to Stem Fukushima Water Leaks (BBG)
  • Chesapeake drops energy leases in fracking-shy New York (Reuters)
  • Hedge Fund Magnetar Won't Face Charges Tied to Mortgages (WSJ)
  • U.S. envoy leaves Cairo after talks declared over (Reuters)
  • Credit-Crisis Oracle Rajan to Head India’s Central Bank (BBG)
  • Bank of England Changes Policy Tack (WSJ)
 


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