The schizophrenia in US equity markets (and by correlation all risk markets) is nowhere better highlighted than the last 24 hours of 2% swings in the S&P 500 on nothing more than boiler-plate comments from DC. However, as BofAML's Ethan Harris notes, "the year-end fiscal challenges in the US are more like an 'obstacle course' than a 'cliff' - politicians must navigate about 10 major policy decisions before year-end." We continue to expect a messy multistage deal on the cliff - with some wishy-washy partial deal late December and more complete resolution (as it will be called) late Spring. We agree with BoFAML's view that until then, we suggest that investors fade the likely “press fakes” of an imminent deal, and brace for downside volatility. It seems to us that the negotiations remains stuck at square one.
- OECD slashes 2013 growth forecast (FT)
- Fiscal Cliff Compromise Elusive as Congress Returns (Bloomberg)
- China’s PBOC Chief Search Spurs Focus on Finance Regulators (Bloomberg)
- Elected, but Still Campaigning (WSJ)
- Pentagon Readies Options for Afghanistan Force After 2014 (Bloomberg)
- Greece Wins Easier Debt Terms as EU Hails Rescue Formula (Bloomberg)
- Monti presses Cameron for EU referendum (FT)
- Welcome, Mr Carney – Britain needs you (FT)
- Argentina seeks halt to $1.3bn debt order (FT)
- Asean chief warns on South China Sea disputes (FT)
- South Korea Tightens FX Rules to Temper Won Surge (WSJ)
We are now averaging more than one suicide per day for active duty military. This is an absolute national disgrace. We are living in a sick society that is getting sicker and sicker each day. We must turn this around and the only way to do so is to get the facts to people and shake them out of their apathy.
If only the nation’s Founding Fathers could see us now! A Supreme Court totally gone wild, de facto legislating and imposing its will; a Congress, lair of lazy career politicians and self-serving scoundrels; and an Executive, wearing reversible togas colored blue and red, running the nation as an empire, and using the country’s military as police force for multi-national predatory capitalism… subsidized by taxpayers from America’s lower and middle classes. Are we at the embryo stage of a major military scandal… a Miligate? Petraeus and Allen are two Samson-characters who availed their modern day Delilah(s) with a razor-sharp lack of common sense. Paula Broadwell, Jill Kelley and Natalie Khawan are neither geishas, nor courtesans... perhaps more of a groupie-variety around the military. Let’s all be concerned with pressuring the politicians to defuse the “fiscal cliff,” and wait until appropriate investigations are concluded to determine whether there is a Miligate.
- Don't jump to conclusions over general, Pentagon chief says (Reuters)
- Bad times for generals: Pentagon demotes 4-star General Ward (Reuters)
- Investors Pay to Lend Germany Money (WSJ)
- Noda will no longer be watching... watching: Japan PM honors pledge with December 16 vote date, to lose job (Reuters)
- New China leadership takes shape (FT)
- Hispanic Workers Lack Education as Numbers Grow in U.S. (Bloomberg)
- Quest for EU single bank supervisor stumbles (FT)
- Anti-austerity strikes sweep Europe (Reuters)
- Amazon faces new obstacles in fight for holiday dollars (Reuters)
- SEC Expands Knight Probe (WSJ)
- Singapore’s Casinos Lose Luster as Gaming Revenue Decline (Bloomberg)
- Amid Petraeus sex scandal, Air Force to release abuse report (Reuters)
- Geithner’s Money Fund Overhaul Push Sparks New Opposition (Bloomberg)
The REAL Meaning of Veterans Day ...
Update, in which we find the true reason for the affair: Petraeus Won’t Testify on Benghazi Next Week, Senate Aide Says. In other words, next time one is called to testify before a panel over the deaths of 4 people including one US ambassador, one just pulls the infidelity "get out of testimony" card and all is well.
A mere few days after the re-election of our president, CIA Director David Petraeus annoucnes his resignation:
- *CIA DIRECTOR DAVID PETRAEUS RESIGNS
- *PETRAEUS SAYS HE ASKED OBAMA TO BE ALLOWED TO RESIGN: NBC NEWS
The reason - an extra-marital affair...
- *PETRAEUS SAYS HE ENGAGED IN AN EXTRAMARITAL AFFAIR: NBC NEWS
- *PETRAEUS 'SUCH BEHAVIOR IS UNACCEPTABLE' IN A LEADER: CNN
Of course, the defense is already known: Petreaus did not commit that affair... the government did it for him
Does China have what it takes to get from here (industrialized export economy) to there (sustainable growth, widespread prosperity)? The same can be asked of every nation: do they have what it takes to move beyond their current limitations to the next level? Consider corruption. Corruption isn't just a "values" issue: corrupt societies have corrupt economies, and these economies are severely limited by that corruption. A deeply, pervasively corrupt economy cannot get from here to there. Corruption acts as a "tax" on the economy, siphoning money from the productive to the parasitic unproductive Elites skimming the bribes, payoffs, protection money, unofficial "fees," etc. By definition, the money skimmed by corruption reduces the disposable income of households and enterprises, reducing their consumption and investment... Pull aside the curtain and what you find is a China crippled by corruption and debt.
Mitt Romney's policy statements have this far been quite hawkish on both the approach to 'dealling' with adversaries and on the funding of the military (growing DoD by 2,5% per year). President Obama on the other hand wants to build consensus and have us move in tandem with our allies. As such, he wants to keep our military spending relatively flat and encourage our allies to spend more. For everything you wanted to know about their policy and budget differences, but were afraid to even contemplate, as well as fiscal and threat realities, these four charts are critical. No matter the winner, the next President faces difficult fiscal realities given the $1T+ deficits of the day. He’ll also face a threat environment that includes a potentially “nuclear” Iran, an emerging China, an unstable middle-East, a frosty Russia, and a growing concern over cyber security.
It doesn’t matter how abundant liquid fossil fuels might be; it’s their cost that impacts the economy. Many people think “peak oil” is about the world is “running out of oil." Actually, “peak oil” is about the world running out of cheap, easy-to-get oil. That means fossil fuels might be abundant (supply exceeds demand) for a time but still remain expensive. We are trained to expect that anything that is abundant will be cheap, but energy is a special case: it can be abundant but costly, because it’s become costly to produce. EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) helps illuminate this point.
The SAME Unaccountable Government Agency Which Spies on ALL Americans Also Decides Who Gets ASSASSINATED by DronesSubmitted by George Washington on 10/25/2012 18:23 -0500
What Could Possibly Go Wrong? aka Obama Activates Skynet
Don't Read This ... It's Totally Irrelevant, Old News, Who Cares, Americans Are Above the Law, We're Exceptional (and Anyone Who Criticizes anything our Government Does is a Commie Fascist Turruristicalist Moooooslim)
The waistline bubble began to expand at just about the same time as the debt bubble...
No, it is not a glitch in the matrix: we previously used the same title about a month ago when showing the relative imports of crude in the US vs China. This time the topic is slightly different, but the players are the same. The premise: "Japan, US call off joint drill to 'retake' disputed islands fearing backlash from China." At least it is now clear who calls the shots from not only a tactical (see China starts drilling for crude in a US-protected Afghanistan yesterday), but strategic standpoint as well.
Schmitt ? Strauss ? University of Chicago ? Neocons, Obama ? Banzai!!!