Bank of America now precisely at $5.00 following an after hours downgrade from A to A-. We note that BofA's CDS widened 10bps today while MER CDS widened 18bps and notably wider (we haven't seen runs post downgrade) and we wonder how this will impact the firm's huge derivative book which was recently moved to the Bank's higher rated, and deposit backed unit for its better rating support. In fact, following such a drastic action, it is quite likely that derivatives units across the board will see counterparties scrambling to demand a far greater cash cushion for fears of the same downgrade waterfalls that took down AIG and MF Global.
Anti-Tilson ETF Goes Ballistic: Netflix Plunges After Company Announces Equity Raise In Sheep's ClothingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/21/2011 17:34 -0500
When we discussed the slow motion trainwreck that is the implosion of Netflix back on October 11, our only outstanding question was "when is the inevitable follow on equity offering coming?" We have the answer, and it is now. Netflix just announced in an 8-K filing that it has raised $200 million in convertible notes. The conversion price is a laughable $85.80 or just 16% above the closing price translating into 2.3 million shares of additional dilution, confirming that this is nothing short of an equity raise in sheep's clothing (on the buyer's terms at that), and indicates that the firm may have well entered a liquidity death spiral courtesy of a business model that still has to generate any substantial free cash flow. Naturally, the second investors realize this they will dump the stock in droves, which is horrendous news for Whitney Tilson, but amazing news for everyone long the Anti-Tilson ETF. In other news, it may just be time for Tilson to call it a career.
UPDATE 1: Chatter that SMP is in BTPs saving the EUR84.50 level again - rest of sovereigns remain weaker.
UPDATE 2: WTI $103
As traders hold their breaths for what will likely be a 'well-managed' French auction this morning, the sentiment from the late US markets is spilling into Europe as Sovereigns - especially France (record wides at 196bps), Italy, and Spain (record wides at 475bps) are all seeing yields and spreads surge. EFSF spread to Bunds just cracked 190bps for the first time as Italian 10Y spreads are back into the record-breaking zone from 11/9 and the Italian 2s10s curve is bear-flattening further by 13bps. ES managed to sustain a low volume recovery off spike lows after hours and is currently +0.5% (though leaking back) as European credit markets open leaking wider with XOver +13bps and Main +4bps. EUR remains under 1.3475 (and EUR-USD swap spread model is reverting back down towards EURUSD) as JPY strengthens modestly. Oil is diverging (higher - breaking $103!) from the rest of the commodity pack and is the main driver of a CONTEXT-based correlated-risk-basket rally (as TSYs drip back towards day low yields levels) that is mildly supportive of ES. Little sign of the ECB yet, but we suspect they are saving their fire-power for pre-auction shenanigans.
Where Are The Pundits And Armchair Analysts When It Becomes Apparent That Apples Is Indeed Susceptible To Google's Android OnslaSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 11/15/2011 17:11 -0500
Now that my Apple premonitions are coming to pass, I fail to hear the cacophony of zealous punditry rushing to admit that maybe, just maybe, Apple is really a C corporation - just like many others and is vulnerable to competition and business cycles - unlike mythical/marketing product creation gods of lore.
Turd Ferguson is a funny guy. But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals. For him, it's a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced. As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world's current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now. In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.
Netflix Implodes After Reporting Horrific Guidance; Notes It Repuchased Stock At $218 Avg Cost BasisSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/24/2011 15:58 -0500
One hopes that the European surprise on Wednesday will be more successful than this. In the meantime, the XIRR on Jim Cramer's recommendation to buy NFLX on Sept 26 at $135 through the current AH price of $87 is -99.6%.
Apple Total Cash Hits $81.6 Billion, Over $5 Billion Increase In The Quarter, $22 Billion Increase In 9 MonthsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/18/2011 16:34 -0500
While the verdict of whether Apple's operations may or may not have peaked, one thing is certain: its cash is growing. In the past (Q4) quarter, AAPL increased its cash, short and long-term investments from $76.2 billion to $81.6 billion (which, however, skeptics will point out was only half the cash growth rate from Q2 to Q3). In 2011 alone, the company that Steve Jobs built generated $22 billion in total cash. Ironically, that is precisely how much the company's market cap is lower by in the after hours session. If AAPL is unsure what to do with all that cash, which would make it the world's biggest hedge fund, it could hire all the stock experts on Twitter, and become the best funded trading operation in the world, which would naturally be buying its own stock all day long (and, if it were to hire a few JPM/BofA/MS traders, buy CDS on itself). Alas, for the CDS plan to work, it would need to issue some debt: the company is still completely debt free.
The inconceivable just happened:
- APPLE 4Q REV. $28.27B, EST. $29.60B
- APPLE 4Q EPS $7.05, EST. $7.31
- APPLE SOLD 11.12 MILLION IPADS DURING QTR, EST. 11.5M
- APPLE SOLD 17.07 MILLION IPHONES IN QTR, EST. 20M :
And for the first time ever, Apple is a mortal company, and instead of sandbagging forecasts, now projects more than the consensus:
- Looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter of 2012, which will span 14 weeks rather than 13, we expect revenue of about $37 billion and we expect diluted earnings per share of about $9.30
- The street: Revenue at $36.776, EPS at $9.017
Putting the cherry on top of an ugly day for bulls comes global tech vanguard IBM, which did not use the DVA wildcard and still saw its earnings beat already reduced expectations of $3.22, printing at $3.28... but... it did miss the consensus top line of $26.34 billion by just under $200 milllion, at $26.16 billion. Since this the first time in probably forever that Big Blue has not beat the top line, the stock is certainly not too happy after hours. That this is happening despite the company's boost to its EPS forecast is quite troubling.
Don't write Google off just yet. The company, which had left many wondering if it can continue to compete with the same level of intensity, just crushed consensus, with Q3 EPS of $9.72 beating expectations of $8.76, while revenues coming at 9.72$ billion on expectations of $7.23 billion. Cash of $42.6 billion, not quite Apple but still lots of potential acquisition targets.. Immediate result: stock up $40 after hours. From Page: ""We had a great quarter. Revenue was up 33% year on year and our quarterly revenue was just short of $10 billion. Google+ is now open to everyone and we just passed the 40 million user mark. People are flocking into Google+ at an incredible rate and we are just getting started!" Some other details from the press release...
The squeeze continued in equities as indices of the most-shorted names handily outperformed the broad market but it was the general aggression with which equity's moved relative to both credit and broad risk assets that will raise eyebrows as rumor after refutation after no-news after denial seemed to have full optionality with all the upside (hope) and no downside (reality). Equities and credit stayed relatively close together until the early afternoon but as we headed into the last hour or two equities were making higher highs as credit lower highs. Combined with underlying relative weakness in financial stocks, net-selling in bonds, and negligible compression in their CDS, it seemed equities may just be tottering but an upper cut from Gasbag and a left cross by YHOO/MSFT and ES took off to the races - well beyond credit, broad-risk-assets, and sense. After hours, ES pulled back closer to fair with credit indices and context but remains considerably 'better-looking' than most other assets would infer.
There are only two ways for Apple to proceed (as) successfully in the medium term: 1) cut prices or 2) raise the technological bar. Either way, margins get hit. This is the first time Apple has released a smart product to boos from expectations set by the Android camp!!!
I have been very bearish. I fought some strong moves up. I argued why certain things wouldn't work - and by certain things, I mean everything the politicians out of Europe said. I'm not planning on being long for long. Europe is fracturing, but France, without a doubt is still pushing for a solution. The data has been marginal, but not horrible. BAC was a disaster again today in terms of stock and then there is Morgan Stanley. I'm playing around for a quick bounce. I might be being too cute, but too many of the moves seem ripe for a rebound. I do think, as some smart commenter on ZH pointed out, that 1120 is now resistance rather than support. And with regard to Buffett, are we as a country, ignoring some people, who may not always be bullish, but at least have been right more often than not in the last 10 years? As a business and a country we should be looking for other oracles, and some of the best out there aren't always positive, but maybe that is what we, collectively need, a harsh dose of reality.
Another day, another roller-coaster ride in US equities as every other asset class was relatively well-behaved. We lurched from headline to headline all day long - up on some hope of a 'deal', down on news that nothing was achieved, up on 'progress', down on a revisit in October - but the lurches were much more evident in US equities than in FX, credit, TSYs, PMs, and commodities. These other markets were not dull by any means but did not exhibit the absolute schizophrenic paranoia that equities did and this was critical in getting a handle on trading today as with 30 minutes to go, equities tore back down from Friday's highs to reconnect with several fair-value models across broad risk assets and the credit markets (highlighted in our earlier European close snapshot).