AIG

There is much debate whether when it comes to the total notional size of outstanding derivatives, it is the gross notional that matters (roughly $600 trillion), or the amount which takes out biletaral netting and other offsetting positions (much lower). We explained previously how gross is irrelevant... until it is, i.e. until there is a breach in the counterparty chain and suddenly all net becomes gross (as in the case of the Lehman bankruptcy), such as during a financial crisis, i.e., the only time when gross derivative exposure becomes material (er, by definition). But a bigger question is what is the actual collateral backing this gargantuan market which is about 10 times greater than the world's combined GDP, because as the "derivative" name implies all this exposure is backed on some dedicated, real assets, somewhere. Luckily, the IMF recently released a discussion note titled "Shadow Banking: Economics and Policy" where quietly hidden in one of the appendices it answers precisely this critical question. The bottom line: $600 trillion in gross notional derivatives backed by a tiny $600 billion in real assets: a whopping 0.1% margin requirement! Surely nothing can possibly go wrong with this amount of unprecedented 1000x systemic leverage.

Failing to Prosecute White Collar Crime Guarantees a Weak and Unstable Economy … and Future Financial Crashes

Presenting Dave Collum's now ubiquitous and all-encompassing annual review of markets and much, much more. From Baptists, Bankers, and Bootleggers to Capitalism, Corporate Debt, Government Corruption, and the Constitution, Dave provides a one-stop-shop summary of everything relevant this year (and how it will affect next year and beyond).

Bigger Tax Payer Bank Bailouts Cometh? If You Think Taxes Are Gonna Be Higher You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet! I welcome one and all to show me how it will not be so.

Think consumers paid enough from higher interest Libor rate rigged by banks?  Small case compared to the rigging in the oil and gasoline markets.  

A few days after divesting its stake in the firm that started it all, AIG, and at a profit at that (ignoring that the risk has merely been onboarded by the Fed whose DV01 is now $2+ billion as a result), the US Treasury continues to divest of all its bailout stake, this time proceeding to GM, where the channel stuffing firm just announced it would buyback 200MM shares from the US government at a price of $27.50. More importantly, the "Treasury said it intends to sell its other remaining 300.1 million shares through various means in an orderly fashion within the next 12-15 months, subject to market conditions. Treasury intends to begin its disposition of those 300.1 million common shares as soon as January 2013 pursuant to a pre-arranged written trading plan. The manner, amount, and timing of the sales under the plan are dependent upon a number of factors." Assuming a price in the $27.50 range, this implies a nearly 50% loss on the government's breakeven price of $54. So much for the "profit" spin. One hopes all those Union votes were well worth the now booked $40+ billion cost to all taxpayers.

• Obama Concessions Signal Potential Bipartisan Budget Deal (BBG)
• Cerberus to sell gunmaker after massacre (CNN)
• With New Offers, Fiscal-Cliff Talks Narrow (WSJ)
• Judge rejects Apple injunction bid vs. Samsung (Reuters)
• U.S. policy gridlock holding back economy? Maybe not (Reuters)
• President fears for Italy’s credibility (FT)
• Struggles Mount for Greeks as Economy Faces Winter (WSJ)
• Abe leans on BoJ in post-election meeting (FT)
• Bank of Japan to mull 2 percent inflation target as Abe turns up heat (Reuters)
• EU exit is ‘imaginable’, says Cameron (FT)
• Mortgage Risk Under Fire in Nordics as Bubbles Fought (BBG)
• Sweden cuts interest rates to 1% (FT)
• External risks impede China recovery, more easing seen (Reuters)

New Fed minutes reveal powerful CEO voted to make William Dudley president of FRBNY and grant him conflicts waivers for investments in CEO's own company.

• New Calls for Gun Limits (WSJ)
• Funerals begin for Newtown victims as schools confront tragedy (Reuters)
• Introducing The Stock Trader of the Future (WSJ)
• Feds knocking on 72 Cummings Ave door any minute now? SAC E-Mails Show Steve Cohen Consulted on Key Dell Trade (BBG)
• China Signals Tolerance of Slower Growth After Meeting (BBG)
• Huge mandate for Japan's LDP may be less than meets the eye (Reuters)
• UBS Said to Face $1.6 Billion Libor Penalty This Week (BBG) - shareholders pay, and nobody goest to jail
• Treasury Plan Would Cut Rates on Some Mortgages in Bonds (BBG)
• Egypt opposition calls for protests against basic law (Reuters)
• Euro Crisis Will Linger, Merkel Tells Summit (WSJ)
• Economic slowdown throughout euro zone a worry for ECB: Liikanen (Reuters)

If there is one thing better than Marc Faber providing a free, must-watch (and listen) 50 minute lecture on virtually everything that has transpired in the end days of modern capitalism, starting with who caused it, adjustable rate mortgages, leverage, why did the Fed let Lehman fail, why was AIG bailed out, quantitative easing, Operation Twist, where the interest on the debt is going, which bubbles he is most concerned about, a discussion of gold and silver, and culminating with his views on a world reserve currency, is him saying the following: "The views of the Keynesians like Mr. Krugman is that the fiscal deficits are far too small. One of the problems of the crisis is that it was caused by government intervention with fiscal and monetary measures. Now they tells us we didn't intervene enough. If they really believe that they should go and live in North Korea where you have a communist system. There the government intervenes into every aspect of the economy. And look at the economic performance of North Korea." Priceless.

• Here come the low margin products: Apple Tests Designs for TV (WSJ)
• Obama and Republicans Trade Offers to Avert Fiscal Crisis (BBG)
• Carney broaches dumping inflation target (FT)
• Bernanke Critics Can’t Fight Bonds Showing No Inflation (BBG)
• Corporate Taxes on Table in Cliff Talks (WSJ)
• US business chiefs back tax rise (FT)
• Greece Confident Bond Buyback Needed for Aid Succeeded (BBG)
• New Faith in Europe's Banks (WSJ)
• European Bank Sees Little Room for Rate Cuts (WSJ)
• North Korea Claims Success in Rocket Launch (WSJ)

It is oddly ironic that on the day the US bailout of AIG is complete, and with a "profit" at that, the spin goes, even if the spin ignores that the "profit" was only purchased at the expense of trillions in sovereign debt issuance and near immediate monetization by the Fed, which has onboarded a mindbogling amount of duration risk (from under $500MM in DV01 in 2008 to over $2.5 billion currently, but nobody will discuss this issue as few if any grasp just how much risk exposure the Fed has shifted away from entities such as AIG), that we learn just how far the abuse of virtually free taxpayer funds goes. Only instead of some US government apparatchiks blowing through billions in some concrete government building in downtown D.C., we go to the birthplace of Mozart, in Salzburg, Austria to learn that a "civil servant gambled hundreds of millions of euros of taxpayers' money on high-risk derivatives."

Warren Buffett is one of America’s biggest bailout beneficiaries, having profited hugely from buying into firms whose assets were subsequently bailed out. Shortly after the crisis began in 2008, Warren Buffett loaned money to, and bought options from, Goldman Sachs, seemingly with the knowledge the bailout of AIG — a counterparty to which Goldman had massive, massive exposure — would take place. Dimon as Treasury Secretary would intend more of the same. Dimon and Buffett and others like them believe in having their cake and eating it. Buffett and Dimon surely have in mind more cronyism, bailouts and free lunches, but the reality of the next four years and beyond may be very different indeed.

• Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying (BBG)
• China New Loans Trail Forecasts in Sign of Slower Growth (BBG)
• U.S. "fiscal cliff" talks picking up pace (Reuters)
• Insider-Trading Probe Widens (WSJ)
• U.K.'s Top Banker Sees Currency Risk (Hilsenrath)
• Three Arrested in Libor Probe (WSJ)
• Nine hurt as gunmen fire at Cairo protesters (Reuters)
• Egyptian President Gives Army Police Powers Ahead of Vote (BBG)
• Pax Americana ‘winding down’, says US report (FT)
• Japan Polls Show LDP, Ally Set for Big Majority (DJ)
• HSBC to pay record $1.9 billion U.S. fine in money laundering case (Reuters)

In a move that we can only presume is to provide more room in their book for some GM Fleet purchases or Twinkie benefits, the US Treasury just announced (via Bloomberg):

• *TREASURY ANNOUNCES OFFERING FOR ALL OF ITS REMAINING AIG SHRS

but:

• *TREASURY SAYS IT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD WARRANTS FOR AIG COMMON

AIG's share price is sliding (-3.5% AH) - surprise - as the decision to liquidate 234 million shares (10x the recent daily average) into such a highly liquid market will, we are sure, be spun as nothing but positive (and a great success for Geithner et al.). Of course, unwinding the even more illiquid warrants was not on the cards. Interesting timing following the sale of AIG's ILFC unit so close behind to the Chinese.