AIG

Indeed, it is now clear, via QE 3, that the Fed has gone “all in” in its commitment to money printing. QE 2 put food prices to record highs… what do you think QE 3 (which is unlimited) will do to the cost of living?

So, the Fed has failed to improve the economy… but it has unleashed inflation. This is called STAGFLATION folks. And the fact the Fed thinks the answer to it is printing more money tells us point blank: things are going to be getting a lot worse in the coming months.

• Italy Says It Won't Seek Aid (WSJ)... and neither will Spain, so no OMT activation, ever. So why buy bonds again?
• European Lenders Keep Ties to Iran (WSJ)
• Fink Belies Being Boring Telling Customers to Buy Stocks (Bloomberg)
• Dutch Voters Buck Euro Debt Crisis to Re-Elect Rutte as Premier (Bloomberg)
• China's Xi cited in state media as health rumors fly (Reuters)
• China vs Japan: Tokyo must come back 'from the brink' (China Daily)
• Manhattan Apartment Vacancy Rate Climbs After Rents Reach Record (Bloomberg)
• Well-to-do get mortgage help from Uncle Sam (Reuters)
• Princeton Endowment Expected to Rise Less Than 5% in Year (Bloomberg)
• Protesters Encircle U.S. Embassy in Yemen (WSJ)
• US groups step up sales of non-core units (FT)

• Germany says U.S. debt levels "much too high" (Reuters)
• Netanyahu ramps up Iran attack threat (Reuters)
• Burberry plummets by most ever, slashes guidance, rattles Luxury-Goods Industry as Revenue Growth (Bloomberg)
• FoxConn Again Faces Labor Issue on iPhones (NYT)
• Southern whites troubled by Romney's wealth, religion (Reuters)
• China's Xi not seen in public because of ailment (Reuters)
• Another California muni default: Oakdale, Calif., Restructuring Debt, Planning Rate Raise After Default (Bond Buyer)
• Spain's PM expects "reasonable" terms for any new aid (Reuters)
• Bernanke Proves Like No Other Fed Chairman on Joblessness (Bloomberg) - Ineffective like no other?
• John Lennon’s Island Goes on Sale as Irish Unpick Property Boom (Bloomberg)

SocGen’s Sebastian Galy:

The market decided rose tinted glasses were not enough, put on its dark shades and hit the nightlife.

And the uber-bullishness is based on what? Hopium. Hope that the Fed will unleash QE3, or nominal GDP level targeting and buy, buy, buy — because what the market really needs right now is more bond flippers, right? Hope that Europeans have finally gotten their act together in respect to buying up periphery debt to create a ceiling on borrowing costs. Hope that this time is different in China, and that throwing a huge splash of stimulus cash at infrastructure will soften the landing.

• China Output Growth Slows as Leadership Handover Looms (Bloomberg); Weak China trade data raises Beijing spending stakes (Reuters)
• Italy Q2 GDP revised down to -0.8% year-on-year on weak domestic demand (Economic Times)
• Troika disagreed with €2 billion in Greek "cuts" (Reuters)
• No Greek bottom in sight yet: Greek IP, Manufacturing Output plunge compared to year earlier (WSJ)
• France's Hollande sees 2013 growth forecast about 0.8 pct (Reuters), France plots tax hikes of up to 20 bln euros (Reuters)
• Euro Crisis Faces Tests in German Court, Greek Infighting (Bloomberg)
• Geithner sells more AIG stock (FT)
• Japan infuriates China by agreeing to buy disputed isles (Reuters)
• Euro crisis to worsen, Greece could exit euro: Swedish FinMin Anders Borg (Economic Times)
• ‘Lead or leave euro’, Soros tells Germany (FT)
• German MP makes new court complaint against euro plans (Reuters)
• Obama super-Pac in push to raise $150m (FT)

Mr. Jenkins’ error rests on incomplete accounting and incorrect attribution analysis. In Frederic Bastiat’s terms, we have a confusion of what is seen and what is not seen.

We have critically examined the question of whether the stock market 'discounts' anything on several previous occasions. The question was for instance raised in the context of what happened in the second half of 2007. Surely by October 2007 it must have been crystal clear even to people with the intellectual capacity of a lamp post and the attention span of a fly that something was greatly amiss in the mortgage credit market. Then, just as now, both the ECB and the Fed had begun to take emergency measures to keep the banking system from keeling over in August. This brings to mind the 'potent directors fallacy' which is the belief held by investors that someone – either the monetary authority, the treasury department, or a consortium of bankers, or nowadays e.g. the government of China – will come to their rescue when the market begins to fall. 'They' won't allow the market to decline!' 'They' won't allow a recession to occur!' 'They can't let the market go down in an election year!' All of these are often heard phrases. This brings us to today's markets. Nowadays, traders are not only not attempting to 'discount' anything, they are investing with their eyes firmly fixed on the rear-view mirror – they effectively trade on yesterday's news.

Bernanke has all but admitted this recently, saying "I assume there is a theoretical limit on QE as the Fed can only buy TSYs and Agencies… If the Fed owned too much TSYs and Agencies it would hurt the market."

When first the speculation and subsequently the confirmation that in addition to suffering massive losses on its IG-9 position, JPM had engaged in massive, reckless and criminal CDS mismarking with the intent to defraud and to boost the appearance of profit for selfish reasons, we promptly concluded that "Jamie Dimon's "tempest in a teapot" just became a fully-formed, perfect storm which suddenly threatens his very position, and could potentially lead to billions more in losses for his firm." So far, the regulators which are currently on page two of "CDS for Absolutely Corrupt Criminal Morons", are only slowly catching up. And while the stench will eventually lead to Jamie, as what happened in the over the counter, unregulated CDS market has most certainly happened at the tens of trillions in other OTC products traded by JPM, most of which are IR swaps, tying it all back nicely to the Libor scandal of which JPM is also a part, the first person who will certainly experience some major pain as the JPM scapegoating plays out, is none other than the London Whale himself Bruno Iksil, who was loved by all at JPM when he was making money, and is now being hung out to dry, once the bank is in the prosecution's cross hairs.

In Q2 Dan Loeb went to town to his holdings as of March 31. Of his roughly 38 different positions, Loeb cut 24 names to zero among which Cisco, Marvell Technology, Sara Lee, Google, Wells Fargo (with the Octogenarian of Omaha likely buying every share), El Paso, Abercrobmie, Goldman and many others. Of course, he kept his stake in Yahoo and added to Apple, while cutting his Delphi stake from 13.34 million shares to 11.5 million. He used the proceeds from these sales to add to new positions (latest 13F here) in new names such aws AIG, Aetna, Chesapeake, Cigna, Coca Cola, Enphase, Humana, News Corp, and Unitedhealth Group. Also, Loeb went quite optically against Bill Ackman and bought a $6.5 million share equivalent put in JCPenney. He is significantly in the money in this.  Altogether, his disclosed equity stake was at $3.3 billion as of June 30, down from $4.1 billion at March 31. Dry powder? Or more likely getting more into bonds (which he doesn't have to disclose on any filing).

Moments ago AIG stock was halted with many scratching their heads as to the the reason why. Here it is, courtesy of Bloomberg:

• TREASURY TO OFFER $4.5 BILLION OF AIG COMMON SHARES
• AIG TO BUY BACK UP TO $3 BILLION OF SHARES SOLD BY TREASURY

Full release as we get it. Bottom line: another $1.5 billion in AIG shares are about to hit the market. Of course, in this broken market this will be seen as bullish. At least initially. Then the selloff.

Those who Benefited from Wall Street Fraud Must be Prosecuted … Including Rogue Government Officials who Aided and Abetted the Crimes

Why a new LIBOR based on Fed Funds (OIS) is determined by back door dealings between government sponsored failures (Fannie/Freddie) and a handful of compromised TBTF banks

Independent from Congress … or from the American People?