AIG

• Subprime bubble is back: Lenders Again Dealing Credit to Risky Clients (NYT)
• Housing bubble is also back: AIG Is Planning a Return to U.S. Property Investing (WSJ)
• Spain and EU Reject Talk of Bailout (FT)
• Coeure Suggests ECB Could Restart Bond Purchases for Spain (Bloomberg)
• IMF Set to Recognise Shrinking Chinese Surplus (FT)
• Government to Propose New Mortgage Servicing Rules (AP)
• Japan Currency Chief Warns Against Delay Over Finances (Bloomberg)
• The 'Michael Corleone' of Libya (Reuters)
• North Korea Says Fuel Being Injected Into Rocket (Reuters)
• SNB Reaffirms Vow to Cap Swiss Franc (FT)

Butler on Blythe

Unfortunately, nobody in the Treasury seems to want to deal with the mess at Ally Financial before Election Day.  But the question is whether Ally can wait until then.

Back in 2006, contrary to conventional wisdom, many financial professionals were well aware of the subprime bubble, and that the trajectory of home prices was unsustainable. However, because there was no way to know just when it would pop, few if any dared to bet against the herd (those who did, and did so early despite all odds, made greater than 100-1 returns). Fast forward to today, when the most comparable to subprime, cheap credit-induced bubble, is that of student loans (for extended literature on why the non-dischargeable student loan bubble will "create a generation of wage slavery" read this and much of the easily accessible literature on the topic elsewhere) which have now surpassed $1 trillion in notional. Yet oddly enough, just like in the case of the subprime bubble, so in the ongoing expansion of the credit bubble manifested in this case by student loans, we have an early warning that the party is almost over, coming from the most unexpected of sources: JPMorgan.

For all those who have long been curious what the precious metals "queen" thinks about allegations involving her and her fimr in gold and silver manipulation, how JPMorgan is positioned in the precious metals market, and how she views the fringe elements of media, as well as JPMorgan's ethical limitations to engaging in 'wrong' behavior, the answers are all here.

• Portugal Says Some Town Halls May Need to Restructure Their Debt (Bloomberg)
• Draghi Scotches ECB Exit Talk as Spain Keeps Crisis Alive (Bloomberg)
• China PBOC Injects Net CNY25 Bln Into Money Market This Week (WSJ)
• BoE warns on mortgage limits (FT)
• Apple investigating new iPad WiFi issues, tells AppleCare to replace affected units (9to5Mac)
• Juppé promises French hard line in EU (FT)
• ECB liquidity fuels high stakes hedging (FT)
• Fed’s Lacker Says Markets Saw Odds of Policy Easing as Too High (Bloomberg)
• Japan minister to ask for nuclear reactor restart: media (Reuters)

So when will retail investors start buying stocks?  One of the final legs propping up this rally is the belief that retail investors will finally pile into stocks.  There is hope that all this “money on the sidelines” will find its way into the stock market.  The S&P at 1,350 was supposed to do the trick.  Certainly 1,400 on the S&P was going to be enough to chase retail investors into stocks.  Basically the argument that retail will capitulate and finally invest in stocks is based on the assumption that higher prices increase demand – aka, a Giffen Good. Retail investors can see that the U.S.  debt has continued to grow and that in spite of lip service to deficit reduction, we are creating a bigger deficit.  They are nervous about what will happen when finally the spending gets pulled in.  They are also very nervous (as are many professional investors) that they will be the last purchase of stocks before the central banks stop pumping fresh money into the system in their never ending attempt to inflate asset prices. Expecting “the masses” to buy just because something is already up 20% seems a little silly, if not downright arrogant. If there is one sector where the upward price movement is sucking in more money it is amongst corporations themselves and if any group has shown an ability to buy high and sell low, it is corporations themselves. It is just wrong to expect individuals to be as frivolous with their money as corporations are.

• Mixed signals from China's factories in March (Reuters)
• EU wants G20 to boost IMF funds after Eurogroup move (Reuters)
• Euro Leaders Seek Global Help After Firewall Boosted (Bloomberg)
• Euro-Region Unemployment Surges to Highest in More Than 14 Years (Bloomberg)
• Big banks prepare to pay back LTRO loans (FT) ... don't hold your breath
• Coty Inc. Proposes to Acquire Avon Products, Inc. for $23.25 Per Share in Cash (PRnewswire)
• Spain Record Home Price Drop Seen With Bank Pressure (Bloomberg)
• Firm dropped by Visa says under 1.5 million card numbers stolen (Reuters)
• Japan Tankan Stagnates With Yen Seen as Threat (Bloomberg)
• Fed to buy $44 billion Treasuries in April, sell $43 billion (Reuters)

Enron --> Worldcom --> Adelphia --> Lehman --> MF Global --> Greece --> Sino Forest --> ????
We would rank these as some of the more notorious bankruptcies. These weren't normal course of business bankruptcies. These were dark and deviant. They have many similarities. Opaque and convoluted accounting and finances are common to them all.  Whether it was Jedi for Enron, repo 105 for Lehman, or off-market swaps with Goldman for Greece, they all used every trick in the book to keep debt off balance sheet and to obfuscate the risk. It is hard to watch what is going on in Europe and not believe that Greece is just the first of many. Countries and their banks. Countries and their regions. Countries and EU programs. Banks and their national central banks. Banks and the ECB. It is hard to pin down the fatal flaw, but for us it is harder to believe that there is nothing to see there and we should happily move along.

While the previous two lectures have had a clear message - Central Banks good, Gold Standard bad, Stability Only Through Central Planning - today's lecture, while unequivocally net positive for the staggering power of the Fed to do what it wants, was less focused. With only one use of the words 'CDO' and 'Save'-the-world, Bernanke focused on the threat of Depression (14 times) and the world-ending 'M.A.D.-bringing' event that would have been the end of AIG (29 times!). With the word mortgage dominant (75 times) and 'Fail' bandied around 33 times, it is clear where Bernanke sees the blame and how the saving of AIG truly was a Flash Gordon moment. Nowhere is this bias better indicated than the 9 uses of the 'People' compared to the 104 uses of the word 'Bank' and should you feel that this was a 'save' by the Fed, the word 'Rescue' does not appear once during the 11,431 word diatribe.

Every quarter the Office of the Currency Comptroller releases its report on Bank Derivative Activities, and every quarter we find that the Too Big To Fail get Too Bigger To Fail. To wit: in Q4 2011, of the total $230.8 trillion in US outstanding derivatives, the Top 5 banks (JPM, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman and HSBC) accounted for 95.7% of all Derivatives. In some respects this is good news: in Q2, the Top 5 banks held 95.9% of the $250 trillion in derivatives. Unfortunately it is also bad news, because $220 trillion is more than enough for the world to collapse in a daisy chained failure of bilateral netting (which not even all the central banks in the world can offset). What is the worst news, is that the just released report indicates that in addition to everything else, we have now hit peak delusion, as banks now report to the OCC that a record high 92.2% of gross credit exposure is "bilaterally netted." While we won't spend much time on this issue now, it is safe to say that bilateral netting is the biggest lie in modern finance (read How US Banks Are Lying About Their European Exposure; Or How Bilateral Netting Ends With A Bang, Not A Whimper for an explanation of this fraud which was exposed completely in the AIG collapse). And just to put this in global perspective, according to the BIS in the first half of 2011, global derivative gross exposure increased by $107 trillion to a record $707 trillion. It will be quite interesting to get the full year report to see if this acceleration in gross exposure has increased. Because if it has, we will now know that in 2011 European banks were forced up to load up on several hundred trillion in mostly interest rate swap exposure. Which can only mean one thing: when and if central banks lose control of government bond curves, an rates start moving wider again, the global margin call will be unprecedented. Until then we can just delude ourselves that central planners have everything under control, have everything under control, have everything under control.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is covered in a long profile by Roger Lowenstein in the Atlantic. The sympathetic account takes the reader blow-by-blow through the criticism that he has received from virtually all quarters during his tenure as Fed chair. What Lowenstein hones in on are the reviews and criticisms of Bernanke’s performance in “resurrecting the economy” — the interest rate policy, his interpretation of the dual mandate, quantitative easing, Operation Twist, etc. But for a piece that clocks in at 8,287 words, Lowenstein pays scant attention to the emergency actions taken to save the financial system itself.

Americans have an illogical love affair with their vehicles. There are 209 million licensed drivers in the U.S. and 260 million vehicles. The U.S. has a higher number of motor vehicles per capita than every country in the world at 845 per 1,000 people. Germany has 540; Japan has 593; Britain has 525; and China has 37. The population of the United States has risen from 203 million in 1970 to 311 million today, an increase of 108 million in 42 years. Over this same time frame, the number of motor vehicles on our crumbling highways has grown by 150 million. This might explain why a country that has 4.5% of the world’s population consumes 22% of the world’s daily oil supply. This might also further explain the Iraq War, the Afghanistan occupation, the Libyan “intervention”, and the coming war with Iran. Automobiles have been a vital component in the financial Ponzi scheme that has passed for our economic system over the last thirty years. For most of the past thirty years annual vehicle sales have ranged between 15 million and 20 million, with only occasional drops below that level during recessions. They actually surged during the 2001-2002 recession as Americans dutifully obeyed their moron President and bought millions of monster SUVs, Hummers, and Silverado pickups with 0% financing from GM to defeat terrorism. Alan Greenspan provided the fuel, with ridiculously low interest rates. The Madison Avenue media maggots provided the transmission fluid by convincing millions of willfully ignorant Americans to buy or lease vehicles they couldn’t afford. And the financially clueless dupes pushed the pedal to the metal, until everyone went off the cliff in 2008.

Wherein Tom Day of Sungard drops out of hyperspace just long enough to write the following missive on the PRMIA DC web rant soapbox and get a few hours sleeep.  Ode to Frank Partnoy. --  Chris

This cannot be the right course for us to take in the wake of such a widely recognized crisis. The lack of purposeful outrage is deafening. We cannot restore lasting stability to our economy and society unless we are willing to face up to what we did wrong, right it, and throw out the bums who put us there. Without that, the pattern of ever escalating crisis and interventionist, market-distorting solutions will surely lead to a bigger crisis still ahead... Perhaps the most important symbol of our failure to address reform are the pictures accompanying much of the coverage of Greg Smith’s letter, those of a power-posing Blankfein and Cohn, who without the Government’s accommodation might be striking a very different pose, indeed. You want to sign on to Mr. Smith’s army in joint distaste for Goldman’s lost culture? Please, be my guest. But more deserving of your enmity is the insidious co-option of the core premise of capitalism by a handful of people to ensure the banks’ undeserved survival, and their managers’ really nice lifestyle.