AIG

Withdrawals Of Gold From NY Fed Jump To 20 Tons In September, Total 276 Tons Since 2014

In September, the total physical gold held in custody at the NY Fed dropped another 19.9 tons in September, down to 5,919.5 tons. This was a doubling in gold withdrawals from 10 tons in August, and is the highest withdrawal since January. At just under 5,920 total tons in NY Fed inventory, this is the lowest amount of gold held in NY Fed custody in decades.

How We Got Here: The Fed Warned Itself In 1979, Then Spent Four Decades Intentionally Avoiding The Topic

At least parts of the Fed all the way back in 1979 appreciated how Greenspan and Bernanke’s “global savings glut” was a joke. Rather than follow that inquiry to a useful line of policy, monetary officials instead just let it all go into the ether of, from their view, trivial history. But the true disaster lies not just in that intentional ignorance but rather how orthodox economists and policymakers were acutely aware there was “something” amiss about money especially by the 1990’s. Because these dots to connect were so close together the only reasonable conclusion for this discrepancy is ideology alone. Economists were so bent upon creating monetary “rules” by which to control the economy that they refused recognition of something so immense because it would disqualify their very effort.

Frontrunning: October 30

  • World stocks on course for best month in four years (Reuters)
  • Global Stocks Up Amid Stimulus Hopes (WSJ)
  • BOJ Refrains From Adding Stimulus Even as Inflation, Growth Wane (BBG)
  • U.S. Avoids Debt Default as Congress Passes Fiscal Plan (BBG)
  • China naval chief says minor incident could spark war in South China Sea (Reuters)
  • Exclusive Club: No High-Frequency Traders Allowed at Luminex (WSJ)

Icahn Reveals Latest "No Brainer" Idea: Urges AIG To Split, Sees 66% Share Upside To $100

It has been a while since Icahn, who is still looking for a $200+ print on AAPL stock courtesy of corporate buybacks, issued a "no brainer" investment alert. He did that moments ago, when he revealed a "large position" in AIG, whom he is now urging to follow John Paulson's advise in order to hit a $100/share price, by doing two things: "Pursue tax free separations of both its life and mortgage insurance subsidiaries to create three independent public companies" and to "embark on a much needed cost control program to close the gap with peers."

'Untouchables': Obama Cronies "Protected Wall Street's Most Criminal From Prosecution"

Impunity has been the norm. The reason there have been no efforts made to criminally investigate is obvious. Former banking regulator and current securities Professor Bill Black told Bill Moyers  that "Timothy Geithner, then Secretary of the Treasury, and others in the administration, with the banks, are engaged in a cover up to keep us from knowing what went wrong."

"If We Don't Find A Solution Today, It's The End Of The European Union" - Refugee Crisis Hits Tipping Point

"If European leaders fail to agree a plan to counter the sudden inflows of refugees, it could mean the end of the European Union. If we don't find a solution today, if we don't do everything we can today, then it is the end of the European Union as such," Prime Minister Miro Cerar said. "If we don't deliver concrete action, I believe Europe will start falling apart."

Just When You Thought Wall Street's Heist Couldn't Get Any Crazier...

In reading various recent regulatory reports, it is clear that almost none of the promises that were made to the public about what was going to happen under Dodd-Frank financial reform is actually happening. Welcome to another day at the casino where the model continues to be — heads they win, tails you lose.

The Fatal Fallacy Of Faith In The Fed's Assumed Powers

Doing as Yellen and her counterparts demand is the biggest risk of all. The Yellen Doctrine requires that central banks be both correct and able, abilities that have been (and can only be) in utter short supply. Her view would show more proactive and effective central bank management where only reactive and impromptu, last minute white-knuckling has abounded. Central banks have been in the past year only holding on for dear life, which is where obscurity has been their benefit. In the end, however, it will bring about their own downfall as it only serves to make matters worse. Yellen wants the central bank to be viewed as almost godlike, but they continually reveal themselves weak, deceptive and ineffectual; eschewing all long run sustainability in order to just make it through one day at a time.

Short Squeeze, Liquidity, Margin Debt & Deflation

Some things you CAN see coming, in life and certainly in finance. Quite a few things, actually. Once you understand we’re on a long term downward path, also both in life and in finance, and you’re not exclusively looking at short term gains, it all sort of falls into place. Of course, the entire global economy has been hanging together with strands of duct tape for decades now, but hey, it looks good as long as you don’t take a peek behind the facade, right?

Hillary Clinton Reveals Her Plan To "Prevent The Next Crash" In Bloomberg Op-Ed

"Thanks to President Obama’s leadership and the determination and sacrifice of the American people, we’ve worked our way out of that ditch and put our economy on sounder footing. Now we have to keep going.

To prevent irresponsible behavior on Wall Street from ever again devastating Main Street, we need more accountability, tougher rules and stronger enforcement. I have a plan to build on the progress we’ve made under President Obama and do just that."

A "Heroic" Ben Bernanke Blames Congress For Poor Economic Recovery

"That’s why I often said that monetary policy was not a panacea — we needed Congress to do its part. After the crisis calmed, that help was not forthcoming. When the recovery predictably failed to lift all boats, the Fed often, I believe unfairly, took the criticism."

Glencore Explains What Would Happen If It Is Downgraded To Junk

"In the event of a downgrade by Standard & Poor’s and/or Moody’s from current ratings to the level(s) immediately below...  there are $4.5 billion of bonds outstanding, where a 125bps margin step-up would apply, in the event that the bonds were rated sub-investment grade by either major ratings agency."

Glencore Implodes: Stock Plunges Most Ever, CDS Blow Out To Record Up On Equity Wipeout Fears

Update: And there it is: GLENCORE DEBT INSURANCE COSTS SURGE TO RECORD HIGH; 5-YR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS RISE 207BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY'S CLOSE TO 757 BASIS POINTS

Those who listened to our reco to buy Glencore CDS at 170 bps in March 2014 can take the rest of the year off. As of this moment, GLEN Credit Default Swap were pushing on 600 bps, 4 times wider, and on pace to take out the 2011 liquidity crunch highs. After that, it's smooth sailing to all time wides and the start of a self-fulfilling prophecy which leads to the Companys's IG downgrade and the collapse of trillions in derivative notionals as what may be the trading desk of the biggest commodity counterparty quietly goes out of business.

Wholesale Money Markets Are Broken: Ignore "Perverted" Swap Spreads At Your Own Peril

At the height of the financial crisis, the unprecedented decline in swap rates below Treasury yields was seen as an anomaly. The phenomenon is now widespread, as Bloomberg notes, what Fabozzi's bible of swap-pricing calls a "perversion" is now the rule all the way from 30Y to 2Y maturities. As one analyst notes, historical interpretations of this have been destroyed and if the flip to negative spreads persists, it would signal that its roots are in a combination of regulators’ efforts to head off another financial crisis, China selling pressure (and its impact on repo markets) and "broken" wholesale money-markets.