"Albert Edwards sees the possibility of a 75% decline from the peak if all his fears were to manifest themselves. Now many view this as an incredible and somewhat outlandish forecast, yet it is not that unreasonable in our view.... These types of declines would leave indices down rough 60-65% from peak, and would send leverage ratios skyrocketing."
"If one is looking for key technical indicators to ring the bell on the cyclical bull market- maybe it has just rung loud and clear. A renminbi devaluation will only sever an already badly frayed safety rope..."
"Experience in other countries that have entered into this territory should sober you up on the likely economic and inflation impact. No country that has gone into negative rates has experienced major shifts in its growth and inflation profile – minor, yes; major, no. As a consequence every dip into negative rates has been followed by additional moves."
We’re experiencing wealth-destruction due to asset-price dynamics alone. The negative moves will stop only when excess leverage is trimmed and not just when prices return to “fair value.”
"To bottom on a Shiller PE of 7x would see the S&P falling to around 550. I will repeat that: If I am right, the S&P would fall to 550, a 75% decline from the recent 2100 peak."
- China trade surprise brings relief (Reuters)
- Obama knocks Trump, voices optimism (Reuters)
- Republican Candidates Criticize Obama’s State of the Union Address (WSJ)
- Republicans and Democrats Agree: We Hate Wall Street (WSJ)
- Oil rises for first time in eight sessions on China, U.S. stocks draw (Reuters)
- U.S. Exports First Freely Traded Oil in 40 Years (WSJ)
- China Imports Record Crude as Price Crash Accelerates Buying (BBG)
Goldman, Decembert 20, 2015: "We think the BoJ is closer to easing further to attempt to achieve a successful reflation than it is to giving up altogether, and so we continue to expect $/JPY higher. We recommend being long $/JPY as part of our 2016 top trade recommendation (along with short EUR/$) and forecast $/JPY at 130 in 12 months"... Three days later, the USDJPY is 100 pips lower.
“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey
"The party's over and bond investors who always tend to be more sober types, realize this and have headed for the exits whereas equity investors are so intoxicated they haven't realized that the music has stopped. Equity investors are still gyrating around the dance floor - just as in 1999 and 2007... I believe the Yellen Fed will soon be treated with the same contempt the Greenspan Fed was in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. And they will deserve it."
SocGen Looks At The Devastation Across Markets, Sarcastically Concludes It Is "Time For A US Rate Hike"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/14/2015 08:53 -0500
"The solution to uncertainty is cheaper valuations. If problems are priced in, investors can afford to look through near terms concerns and focus on the longer term. Worryingly, we have exactly the opposite situation today. Average stock valuations are close to historical highs – so we have lots of risk and little in the way of valuation cushion.... Time for a US rate rise then?"
"So much of what we now accept as routine in financial markets would have been thought impossible prior to the 2008 crisis ?- the next logical stage in the global currency war will be direct fx intervention!"
- Albert Edwards
"It is already too late. Having delayed way beyond the point when it might typically have raised rates in previous cycles, it has allowed an Orc-like monster to incubate, hatch and emerge into the sunlight, snarling and ready to do battle."
- There have been 606 global rate cuts since LEH
- $12.4 trillion of central bank asset purchases (QE) since Bear Stearns
- The Fed is operating a zero rate policy for the longest period ever (even exceeding the WW2 Aug’37-Sep’42 zero rate period)
- $6.3 trillion global government bonds currently yielding <0%
- $20.0 trillion global government bonds currently yielding <1%
"They're Converging To Dire Levels!": SocGen's Edwards Delivers Critical Warning On Inflation ExpectationsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/07/2015 17:00 -0500
"The collapse in inflation expectations tells us that the market believes the central banks, despite their monetary profligacy, are failing to prevent the western economies from turning Japanese, and thus at risk of repeating their devastating slide into outright deflation in the 1990s."