“Better to preserve capital on the downside rather than outperform on the upside”
"The Fed has painted itself into a corner... [the current situation's severity] is very similar to what you get before you slip into a crisis....The bumpy ride is probably not over yet... stay on guard."
Earlier today, Art Cashin summarized most (very desperate) traders' thoughts when he said that as a result of today's market crash, "the Fed will try anything" to prop up the wealth effect it had so carefully engineered with seven years of central planning in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Yet one person who is far less sanguine abou the latest in a long series of central bank bailouts of the stock market is Macro-Allocation's Paul Brodsky, who believes that instead of the Fed Put, the time of the Fed Call has come.
"The Fed will try anything," warns Art Cashin, calmly explaining that markets "are in 'deep concern' mode," currently and if the S&P hits 1857, "there might be another whole new round of selling." The Fed's solution, Cashin stoically explains to a dumbstruck CNBC anchor, that "it doesn't matter that it hasn't worked in the past," The Fed will unleash moar QE to save the world.
Two Thousand Fifteen had high hopes at the start, but a sharp selloff in August nearly ripped us apart; Then Draghi and Yellen swore that hope hadn't departed, so we stuttered and sputtered to just get back where we started.... Hoverboards were this season's really, really hot toy; And Bruce Jenner's now Caitlyn - he's no longer a boy
Having recently opined that "2015 was one of the most difficult markets in 50 years," the venerable Art Cashin has once again unleashed annual holiday poem.
"2015 Was Like Commuting By Rollercoaster" - Art Cashin Reviews The 2015 Market And Shares His 2016 OutlookSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/10/2015 13:27 -0500
"2015 was like commuting by rollercoaster. There were heart-stopping drops, there were nearly vertical ascents, and when it was all over you got off just about where you started and it cost you money."
Since inception in June 1998, UBS' Managed High Yield Plus Fund survived through the dot-com (and Telco) collapse and the post-Lehman credit carnage but, based on the press release today, has been felled by the current credit cycle's crash. After 3 years of trading at an increasingly large discount to NAV, and plunging to its worst levels since the peak of the financial crisis, the board of the Fund has approved a proposal to liquidate the Fund. While timing is unclear, this is the worst case for an increasingly fragile cash bond market as BWICs galore are set to hit with "liquidty thin to zero."
"It's not necessarily out of control yet. But if they do not provide some stability pretty soon it will begin to affect not only the markets over there, but - as we saw today and somewhat last week - it affects markets all around the world. Financial Markets are correlated. We learned that back in 2008 When the fall of Lehman spread all around the globe."
"...they're in a kind of silly loop where they did QE expecting a reaction... didn't get it.. and then they did QE again because it didn't live up to their expectations... but I think they have no other options, if things get negative on the economy, QE is all they can do."
"I think China may be more important than Greece. Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble."
Whether, or not, a Greek exit from the Eurozone or a potential debt default is "the thing" that sparks the next major correction in the markets is unknown. Historically, such a widely "known" event is generally already factored into the markets and has much less of an impact when that event eventually comes to fruition. As Art Cashin suggested this morning: "I think China may be more important than Greece. Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble."
"The Fed is allowing the [market] tail to wag the [monetary policy] dog... The Fed's credibility itself is at stake... they have backed themselves into a very tight corner... the tightest ever... The hope today is that the current era of easy monetary policy will have no deep economic ramifications. Such thinking, though, may prove to be naive... All retirees’ security is thus at risk when the massive overvaluation in fixed income and equity markets eventually rights itself."
The entire global financial system resembles a colossal spiral of debt. Just about all economic activity involves the flow of credit in some way, and so the only way to have “economic growth” is to introduce even more debt into the system. Unfortunately, any system based on debt is going to break down eventually, and there are signs that it is starting to happen once again.
*FISCHER SAYS RATE LIFTOFF LIKELY WARRANTED BEFORE END-2015
With the world now convinmced that Janet Yellen is as dovish as she has ever been on rate hikes, today comes the first post-FOMC speech. None other than Vice-chair Stanley Fischer is due to address The Economic Club of New York on the topic of "Monetary-policy lessons and the way ahead." As Art Cashin warned this morning, Fischer "seems to feel that the Fed must raise rates this year. He is also the only Fed official to concede that any rate hike will be different than any seen before."