The physical holdings of Chinese gold ETFs have surged five-fold from 7 tonnes at the end of January, to 35 tonnes at end of August. The Huaán Yifu Gold ETF, which was holding 23 tonnes in August, entered the global top 15 list.
With the ECB running dangerously low on bonds to monetize even as its QE program has failed to spur inflation, Mario Draghi may have no choice but to unveil drastic changes to the central bank's QE programm tomorrow. Here are the options available to the central banker, and some ideas of how markets may react.
The average land price per square meter for the top 100 Chinese cities in the first five months of this year jumped nearly 50% from same period last year, citing Wind Information. More stunning is that according to Wind, some land prices are even higher than asking prices for fully-built houses nearby.
The risk of a default chain reaction is looming over the $3.6 trillion market for wealth management products in China. WMPs, which traditionally funneled money from Chinese individuals into assets from corporate bonds to stocks and derivatives, are now increasingly investing in each other.
Diamond has a good thing going with Quorum: they get access to ample credit, especially for those applicants with weaker credit profiles. From a Diamond investor's perspective, it would be a shame if anything changed. The post credit-crisis strategy of focusing on esoteric lending opportunities like VOI (as well as taxi medallions, hearing aids and fertility treatments) to generate revenues and membership has run into both a broader slowdown in the consumer credit cycle as well as more specific problems, like an increasingly worried regulator.
Tomorrow's ECB meeting "looks set to be sleepy" according to Saxo Bank's Mads Koefed as Draghi is largely cornered into confirmation he will do "whatever it takes" and some additional details on the corporate bond purchase plan. Most of the sell-side's research suggests the same, as Bloomberg notes, ECB will probably leave the door open for further cuts if needed; but any downside risk for the euro is seen limited, as Draghi stays on hold by reinforcing its dovish stance after the mix of easing measures announced in March with some defense of the efficiency of his policies after recent criticism by Germany.
In a quiet start to the week following last week's surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.
Had central bankers simply taken to heart that well known idiom that cautions "a stitch in time saves nine" early on, they would not now be so frantically stitching such a gaping gash in the world economy. One thing is for certain. All of this quantitative pleasing has done little to lift the spirits of the world’s worker bees.
The European Central Bank promised in January to "review and reconsider" its monetary stance this week. The question, as BloombergBriefs notes, is not if policy makers will ease but how. Haruhiko Kuroda's humbling in FX markets shows what Mario Draghi is up against tomorrow: namely, that even the most forceful policy decisions can be overwhelmed by events, positioning, or sentiment. Draghi has a number of options (some more and some less priced in) but most crucially there two large gaps to be filled in European Stock indices - the question is which is filled first?
Last April, China had an idea about how to boost the country’s dying credit impulse. One idea was to supercharge the country’s nascent ABS market which was barely producing $50 billion in supply per year. That effort failed in large part due to banks' unwillingness to offload their good assets in a time when NPLs are rising. So you can probably guess what Beijing's "solution" is.
In recent weeks Chinese stocks remained relatively resilient, levitating quietly day after day. That all changed overnight when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 6.4% with the drop accelerating into the close. This was the biggest drop in over a month and was big enough to almost wipe out the entire 10% rebound from the January lows in one session.
Mario Draghi is set to address the European Parliament's Committee on Monetary and Economic affairs in Brussels on Monday. Draghi's comments will of course be parsed for any hints as to what the ECB will do next month, when Draghi is expected to announce further easing, either in the form of another rate cut or an expansion/extension of PSPP.
Fundamentally, Credit is unstable. It is self-reinforcing and prone to excess. Credit Bubbles foment destabilizing price distortions, economic maladjustment, wealth redistribution and financial and economic vulnerability. 'Activist' government intervention and manipulation have pushed protracted Bubbles to the point of precarious systemic fragility.