It’s happening. As expected, dynastic politics is prevailing in campaign 2016. After a tease about as long as Hillary’s, Jeb Bush (aka Jeb!) officially announced his presidential bid last week. Ultimately, the two of them will fight it out for the White House, while the nation’s wealthiest influencers will back their ludicrously expensive gambit. And here’s a hint: don’t bet on Jeb not to make it through the Republican gauntlet of 12 candidates (so far). After all, the really big money’s behind him.
The fact that Moody's and Fitch are beginning to reevaluate student loan ABS is indicative of an underlying shift in the market. Between the proliferation of IBR and the Department of Education's recent move to open the door for debt forgiveness in the wake of the Corinthian collapse, financial markets are beginning to see the writing on the wall. Perhaps Bill Ackman said it best: "there's no way students are going to pay it all back."
China may raise the quota on a critical debt swap plan by as much as CNY1 trillion, underscoring how important its success is both in terms of kicking the can for the country's heavily-indebted local governments and in terms of jumpstarting the credit creation machine. Meanwhile, an effort to encourage ABS issuance is sputtering amid rising NPLs.
- Full picture of Clinton charities' foreign government funding remains elusive (Reuters)
- Greece Readies for Another Week of Deadlines (BBG)
- Greece says deal will be 'difficult' at Eurogroup meeting (Reuters)
- Saudi Arabia’s Rulers Snub Arab Summit, Clouding U.S. Bid for Iran Deal (WSJ)
- Saudi Aramco Said to Plan Spending $80 Billion Overseas (BBG)
- The $900 Billion Influx That’s Wreaking Havoc in U.S. Bills (BBG)
- Cameron rules out another Scottish independence vote (Reuters)
- Banks Prep Defense for Anti-Wall Street Campaigns (WSJ)
"China has a $28 trillion problem. That’s the country’s total government, corporate and household debt load as of mid-2014... equal to 282 percent of the country’s total annual economic output," Bloomberg notes, adding that efforts to deleverage this massive debt burden aren't compatible with the measures Beijing needs to take to boost economic growth. But if you thought the debt problem was bad now, it's going to get worse because as Reuters notes, China is about to activate the ABS machine.
Moody's puts $3 billion in student debt-backed ABS on default watch leading us to wonder when 30% delinquency rates in a market where nearly $1.3 trillion in credit has been extended will finally result in the bursting of what is America's most spectacular debt bubble.
March was a record month for CLO issuance with $15.2 billion in deals coming to market, bringing the YTD total to $29 billion and making Q1 2015 the best first quarter in history for CLO new issue volume. And while a JPM analyst who spoke to Bloomberg says managers “want to get deals done early before risk retention kicks in,” we're confident that it’s all about keeping credit flowing to deserving borrowers and not at all about a desire to keep exposure to 5% of a collateral pool littered with loans to “companies that are of lower credit quality or that do not have a third-party evaluation of the likelihood of timely payment of interest and repayment of principal” off of the books.
A simple discussion of what the ECB is buying and some of the potential implications.
unlike the late summer and early fall of 2014, when the rise in the Chinese stock market could be attributed to the PBOC's PSL "QE Lite", the relentless buying leg that started in mid-November has stunned most people, as nobody has been able to figure out just who is responsible for all this buying. Until now. According to Reuters, it is precisely China's trust firms, with total assets of $2.2 trillion, and who together with Banker Acceptances comrpise the bulk of China's shadow banking pipeline, are shifting more cash into frothy capital markets and over-the-counter (OTC) instruments instead of loans. In other words, instead of using their vast cash hoard of over $2 trillion to re-lend and stimulate China's economy, China's unregulated, shadow banking conduits are now directly buying stocks!
To be sure, we’ve written quite a bit lately about the ECB’s upcoming plunge into the world of 13-figure debt monetization (or as we call it, Draghi’s Waterloo), and while we hate to beat a dead horse, the sheer lunacy of a bond buying program that is only constrained by the fact that there simply aren’t enough bonds to buy, cannot possibly be overstated. Here is everything you need to know about Q€ ahead of the ECB's Thursday meeting.
- Markets From Stocks to Debt to Euro Show Little No Panic (BBG)
- Greek Euro Exit Risk Increases as EU Delivers Ultimatum (BBG)
- Oil rises to $62, near 2015 high as Mideast risks support (Reuters)
- Texas judge blocks Obama plan to protect undocumented immigrants (Reuters)
- Oil Train Derails and Ignites Forcing West Virginia Evacuations (BBG)
- Battle rages for town where Ukraine rebels reject ceasefire (BBG)
- Chinese Firms Tiptoe Back Into Europe’s Battered Financial Sector (WSJ)
- Putin’s Paradise Becomes Economic No-Go Zone Where Cash Is King (BBG)
- Emerging fund managers stuck in buy-and-hold as trading shrivels (Reuters)
Those curious to learn why Greece is the only country excluded form the ECB' QE (for now), will not find any additional information in the ECB's supplement on its asset purchase program. Neither will they learn why something that is in effect monetary financing, and is prohibited by Article 123, is not monetary financing. However, they will learn that the proceeds from the ECB's money printing can be used "to buy other assets and extend credit to the real economy." The ECB adds that "In both cases, this contributes to an easing of financial conditions." Actually the only thing it will contribute to is making the world's billionaires into the world's trillionaires.
Mario Draghi Unveils €60 Billion Per Month QE Through September 2016 With Partial Risk-Sharing: Live Conference WebcastSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/22/2015 09:30 -0400
From "whatever it takes" to OMT to "discussing" bond purchases, with European interest rates at record (incomprehensible) lows (apart from Greece) and EURUSD at 11-year lows (down 25 handles in the last 8 months), Mario Draghi looks set to unleash interventionist 'hell' on the investing public in Europe with EUR50 billion (plus plus) of ECB QE per month for as long as it takes...
If we review the events of 2014, it seems the situation has intensified: governments are still overwhelmed with debt, our fiat money system is unsupported, our central banks insist on accumulating debt and making money valueless. Will someone realize we have to pull the plug? And when we do, because it will happen whether we want it or not, how can we hedge against the damage that we will all be exposed to? Owning physical precious metals stored outside the banking system is a proven and essential form of monetary insurance against the uncertainties and negative surprises we see in our world today.
Today the Euro is on the cusp of breaking critical support. Draghi will likely see this as a success (he wants inflation). More likely, it will bring in another round of the EU Crisis (the same line was hit when Greece imploded in 2010 and when Spain imploded in 2012).