• Phoenix Capital...
    10/01/2014 - 11:24
    We have the very makings of a Crash. If stocks breakdown from this line and cannot reclaim it, we could easily wipe out all of the gains going back to 2013.

Aussie

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 26





  • Mystery Man Who Moves Japanese Markets Made More Than 1 Million Trades  (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Trillion-Euro Pump Finds Blockage in Spain: Euro Credit (BBG)
  • Apple plays defense on iPhone 6 bending, software concerns (Reuters)
  • U.S. to Shield Military From High-Interest Debt (WSJ)
  • U.S. Outgunned by Extremists on Social Media Battlefield (BBG)
  • Yen Weakens on Pension Fund Reform; Aussie Drops to 7-Month Low (BBG)
  • Secretive Russian oil giant has no fear of sanctions (Reuters)
  • Ride-Sharing Services Face Legal Threat From San Francisco, Los Angeles (WSJ)
  • Putin’s Sell-Treasuries-for-BRICS Bonds Plan Has Limits (BBG)
 
Marc To Market's picture

Technical Outlook for the Dollar





The world may be a big conspiracy and civilization as we know it may end soon, but if you care what the dollar may do next week, take a look at this post.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Australia's Part-Time Jobs Miracle





While we have grown used to eye-poppingly 'odd' data from China (and increasingly the US), last night's surge in Aussie employment is among the greatest statistical pieces of muppetry we have ever seen. As Bloomberg reports, Australian employers added a record number of jobs in August - great news, right? Confirming CBA's decision to hold rates (not cut) and instantly AUD exploded higher. However, since then AUD has collapsed back to fresh 6-month lows plunging over 300 pips in 4 days. The reason - "the market's skeptical," says one trader, as Aussie's miracle jobs recovery was thanks to a 121,000 surge in part-time employees (equivalent to 1.3 million added in one month in the US).

 
Marc To Market's picture

Scottish Jitters Past Peak?





Quick update, and outline of reasons to suspect anxiety over Scottish independence has peaked. 

 
Marc To Market's picture

Dollar is Stretched, but will it Correct?





Overview of the technical outlook for the major currencies, bonds, Treasuries, stocks, CRB and oil.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

So Much For China? Aussie Unemployment Misses By Most On Record, Surges To 12-Year Highs





But... China's manufacturing PMIs said everything's great in the mal-investment capital of the world? It appears for all the record credit creation in China, none of it is spilling over into demand from its closest trading partners. Australian unemployment spiked to 6.4% - its highest since 2002, missing the 6.0% expectation by the greatest margin on record. No "qualified' economists believed the print would be above 6.1%. AUDJPY is getting battered which implicitly means S&P futures have legged lower...

 
Marc To Market's picture

Fade the Break?





Near-term outlook for the dollar, without resorting to inflammatory and unproven claims.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The "Miracle" Of China's PMI Resurrection In 1 Uncomfortable Chart





All around Asia, PMIs are tumbling... except for China's government-sponsored Manufacturing PMI. This week saw Aussie Services PMI (linked significantly to China) tumbled to 2014 lows, Japan's PMI drop, and China's own Services PMI disappoint and fade to 2-month lows. So where is all this exuberance coming from in China's manufacturing industry (despite a 8-month in a row drop in employment)? We don't know; but the fact that China coal prices just hit a record low hardly supports the smog-choking industry of China being at 7-month highs... Hard data vs soft surveys? You decide.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 3





  • Obama Decries Big Bonuses at Bank Trading Desks as Risky  (BBG)
  • India central bank seeks to swap gold to improve reserves quality (Reuters)
  • There goes Q3 GDP: Arthur Strengthens to Become First Atlantic Hurricane (BBG)
  • Airports Serving U.S. Tighten Checks on Stealth-Bomb Threat (BBG)
  • Fear, cash shortages hinder fight against Ebola outbreak (Reuters)
  • Brent Declines as Libya Rebels Say Ports Are Open (BBG)
  • Shiites Train for Battle in Iraqi Holy City (WSJ)
  • Dimon’s Cancer Has 90% Cure Rate With Demanding Therapy (BBG)
  • Goldman says client data leaked, wants Google to delete email (Reuters)
  • ECB Watchers in the Dark Look to Draghi for Illumination (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

China, Japan, And Aussie Services PMIs Drop (but Markit/HSBC Baffles...)





All around Asia, PMIs are tumbling. The last few days saw a number of nations' manufacturing PMIs drop with the notable miraculous surge in China (at 2014 highs). Tonight saw the Services PMI side also tumbling with Australia first (at 2014 lows) and Japan fade back to 49 for its 3rd month in contraction. But (unlike the manufacturing side) China 'official' Services PMI faded from its rebound (55 vs 55.5). The drop in Services PMI makes some sense given the 8-month lows in employment indices within the manufacturing PMIs... But then the baffle 'em with total bullshit brigade arrived as Markit/HSBC unveiled their version of Services PMI which jumped to 53.1 - its biggest MoM on record - makes perfect sense.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Aussie Dollar Tumbles As Stevens Says "Overvalued"; Claims "Not Jawboning"





It appears it's one of those nights. In a fit of confusion, Australia's Central Bank head Glenn Stevens declared "investors are under-estimating the chance of an AUD decline" only to follow that 'jawboning' up with an explanation that he is trying "to avoid shifting language or jawboning." But then he broke the cardinal rule of central-banking - he told the truth:

*STEVENS: PEOPLE SHOULDN'T ASSUME HOUSE PRICES ALWAYS RISE

But.. but.. but... Ben Bernanke said... The AUD plunged over 50 pips on the news (but like any good central bank non-jawbone is suffering from a short half-life).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Macro Miasma: China 6Mo Highs; Japan/South Korea 9Mo Lows





Tonight's round of baffle 'em with bullshit is courtesy of a diverging AsiaPacific economic picture that is anything but supportive of the 'reality' being painted by China's official PMI (which printed at 51.0 as per expectations at 2014 highs) followed by HSBC China PMI which missed its flash estimate (with employment dropping to 8mo lows). South Korea PMI collapsed to 10-month lows; Aussie PMI faded further into contraction at 48.9; and then Japan's Tankan dramatically missed expectations, tumbling to 9-month lows (only to be followed by a 51.1 Japan print (3-month highs). Just to complete the "picture", Chinese home prices fell for the first time in over 2 years. The result, USDJPY rallies and Nikkei 225 soars 200 points... baffled?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Equity Algos Await Seasonally Adjusted Data Dump Before Today's Buying Spree





If yesterday's non-record, red-tick close can be attributed to algos applying the wrong ISM seasonal factor to the day, believing it was Wednesday instead of the permabullish Tuesday, today there is no such excuse, which is why we fully expect the unallowed redness with which futures are currently trading to promptly morph into a non-red color especially with the USDJPY doing it best to ramp to 103.000 levels overnight, stopping out all shorts, and push spoos to fresh record highs. It is an algo world after all.  It appears that already record low volatility is being pushed even lower in anticipation of numerous imminent data releases, including today's ADP and Services ISM (first, second and final release), tomorrow's ECB announcement and Friday's payrolls number. Which while good for low volume levitation means bank trading revenues continue to deteriorate forcing banks to pitch M&A deals to clients, which in turn result in even more synergies and more layoffs: because in order to preserve the bottom line, crushing real employment further is perfectly acceptable collateral damage.

 
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