Surprising German Factory Orders Bounce Offset ECB Jawboning Euro Lower; Australia Cuts Rate To Record LowSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2013 06:57 -0400
The euro continues to not get the memo. After days and days of attempted jawboning by Draghi and his marry FX trading men, doing all they can to push the euro down, cutting interest rates and even threatening to use the nuclear option and push the deposit rate into the red, someone continues to buy EURs (coughjapancough) or, worse, generate major short squeezes such as during today's event deficient trading session, when after France reported a miss in both its manufacturing and industrial production numbers (-1.0% and -0.9%, on expectations of -0.5% and -0.3%, from priors of 0.8% and 0.7%) did absolutely nothing for the EUR pairs, it was up to Germany to put an end to the party, and announce March factory orders which beat expectations of a -0.5% solidly, and remained unchanged at 2.2%, the same as in February. And since the current regime is one in which Germany is happy and beggaring its neighbors's exports (France) with a stronger EUR, Merkel will be delighted with the outcome while all other European exporters will once again come back to Draghi and demand more jawboning, which they will certainly get. Expect more headlines out of the ECB cautioning that the EUR is still too high.
Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg exclaims we are currently are witnessing the Potemkin rally (the phrase Potemkin villages was originally used to describe a fake village, built only to impress). The term, however, is now used, typically in politics and economics, to describe any construction (literal or figurative) built solely to deceive others into thinking that some situation is better than it really is. Ben Bernanke, recently proclaimed “The Hero” by Atlantic Magazine, is the “Wizard of Potemkin.” Since 2009 Bernanke has engage in massive monetary experiments. These experiments lead to future dislocations. There is no doubt that the Fed wants inflation. The problem is they may get more than they ask for. We are currently witnessing the slowest economic recovery of any post-WWII period. However, It is important to challenge your thought process. Read material that challenges your views. Here are David's rules...
A look at the price action in the foreign exchange market and the technical forces in the week ahead.
Overview of the price action in foreign exchange and outlook for the week ahead.
Is the dollar trending or is it moving broadly sideways?
Switzerland is the place that has traditionally stood above all the rest in its reputation for financial stability. Why? Because the currency was well-managed, the banking system was sound, and the country had a long tradition of treating capital well. Over the last few years, however, these advantages have collapsed. Just a small handful of countries inspire confidence in the marketplace. And the most popular seems to be Australia. Now, there’s really no such thing as a “good” fiat currency. But given such fundamentals, it’s easy to see why Australia is replacing Switzerland as a global safe haven.
It is the yen, not the dollar, that is the key currency in the foreign exchange market.
- Finally the MSM catches up to reality: Workers Stuck in Disability Stunt Economic Recovery (WSJ)
- China opens Aussie dollar direct trading (FT)
- National Bank and Eurobank Fall as Merger Halted (BBG)
- Why Making Europe German Won’t Fix the Crisis - The Bulgarian case study (BBG)
- Nikkei hits new highs as yen slides (FT)
- Housing Prices Are on a Tear, Thanks to the Fed (WSJ)
- Why is Moody's exempt from justice, or the "Big Question in U.S. vs. S&P" (WSJ)
- Central banks move into riskier assets (FT)
- N. Korea May Conduct Joint Missile-Nuclear Tests, South Says (BBG)
- North Korea Pulls Workers From Factories It Runs With South (NYT)
- Illinois pension fix faces political, legal hurdles (Reuters)
- IPO Bankers Become Frogs in Hot Water Amid China Market Halt (BBG)
- Portugal Seeks New Cuts to Stay on Course (WSJ)
The downside technical correction in the dollar that we have been anticipating appears to have begun against most of the major currencies. The drift lower against the yen over the past month has ended, and although we are skpetical of the impact of the stimulative monetary and fiscal policies in Japan, technically it is difficult to resist the momentum for additional yen weakness.
- Helicopter QE will never be reversed (Evans-Pritchard)
- Bank of Japan Launches Easing Campaign under new leadership (WSJ)
- Draghi Considers Plan B as Sentiment Dims After Cyprus Fumble (BBG)
- Spain threatened by resurgent credit crunch (FT)
- U.S. Dials Back on Korean Show of Force (WSJ)
- Gillard Urges Aussie Firms to Emulate German Deutschmark Success (BBG)
- Bank watchdog warns on retail branches (FT)
- Xi's Russia visit confirms continuity of ties (China Daily)
- Portuguese Government Survives No-Confidence Vote (WSJ)
- Mortgage rates set for fall, Bank of England survey shows (Telegraph)
- Russia’s bank chief warns on economy (FT)
- Fed member hints at summer slowing of QE3 (FT)
An oveview of the technical condition of the major currencies. Offered as a compliment to macro analysis.
A review of the implications of the new deal struck on Cyprus. We think three of the worst pitfalls have ultimately been avoided--small depositors protected, orthodox seniority of claims respected, and extensive capital controls averted. The political will to preserve EMU has once again triumphed over ideological purity. We review the economic calendar for the week ahead.
An overview of the technical condition of the major currencies. See why we anticipate a heavier US dollar in the week ahead.
A weekly overview of the technical condition of a number of currencies against the US dollar. It is meant to compliment and supplement fundamental analysis. We retain a mostly favorable outlook for the US dollar, though skeptical of the scope for additional significant gains against the Japanese yen.
Here is a quick overview of what is going on. Besides reviewing the key developments, we explain why the EU Summit, which is not attracting much attention, is in fact important.