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Tyler Durden's picture

Meet ICREACH: The NSA's Own Secret "Google"





The National Security Agency is secretly providing data to nearly two dozen U.S. government agencies with a “Google-like” search engine built to share more than 850 billion records about phone calls, emails, cellphone locations, and internet chats, according to classified documents obtained by The Intercept.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Key Events In The Current Week





Key highlights in the coming week: US Durable Goods, Michigan Conf., Services PMI, PCE, and CPI in Euro area and Japan. Broken down by day: Monday - US Services PMI, New Home Sales (Consensus 4.7%); Singapore CPI; Tuesday - US Durable Goods (consensus 7.5%) and Consumer Confidence; Wednesday - Germany GfK Consumer Confidence; Thursday - US GDP 2Q (2nd est., expect 3.70%, below consensus) and Personal Consumption; Euro area Confidence; CPI in Germany and Spain; Friday - US Michigan Conf. (consensus 80.1), PCE (consensus 0.10%), Chicago PMI; Core CPI in Euro area and Japan (consensus 2.30%). Additionally, with a long weekend in the US coming up, expect volumes into the close of the week to slump below even recent near-record lows observed recently as the CYNKing of the S&P 500 goes into overdrive.

 
GoldCore's picture

Russia On Way To Becoming World No 2 Gold Producer As Peak Gold Hits West





Western nations and South Africa have already reached peak gold. There is a real possibility that it will happen globally soon. The fact that peak gold may take place at a time when the world is engaged in a peak fiat paper and electronic money creation experiment bodes very well for gold’s long term outlook. This should lead to much higher gold prices in time and gold’s inflation adjusted high of $2,500 per ounce remains a realistic long term price target. Peak gold has yet to be considered and analysed by the international financial community or factored into markets.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Despite Collapsing Economy, Japanese PMI Surges To 5-Month High; China PMI Tumbles, Misses By Most On Record





Following New Zealand's biggest monthly plunge in consumer confidence in over 2 years, Japan's Manufacturing PMI surged to its highest since March at 52.5 (handily beating expectations of 51.5). Almost the entire suite of subindices were positive except JPY weakness-inspired margin compression as output prices tumbled and input prices surged. All of this in the face of collapsing and disappointing hard data. Meanwhile, China Manufacturing PMI plunged to 51.5, missing by the most on record, as China's apparent 'hard' data shows improvement. Perhaps it is time to recalibrate the seasonal magic in these PMIs...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 20





  • Ferguson at Turning Point After Night of Relative Calm (BBG)
  • Gaza war rages on, Hamas says Israel tried to kill its military chief (Reuters)
  • Surge in Putin Patriotism Masks Pain of Sanctions (BBG)
  • Bank of England splits over rate hike for first time in 3 years (Reuters)
  • Putin Meeting Leaves Kiev With Tough Choices (WSJ)
  • European Gas Reverses Biggest Drop Since 2009 on Ukraine (BBG)
  • "Isolation"  Mongolia Seeks Economic Lifeline With Pivot to China, Russia (BBG)
  • Uber Picks David Plouffe to Wage Regulatory Fight (NYT)
  • China Levies Record Antitrust Fine on Japanese Firms (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Levitate Because Any Re-escalation Is Simply Pent Up De-escalation





A quick reminder of how geopolitics governs markets: on Friday, the market plunged 0.005% over fears Ukraine and Russia may be about to go at it all out after a fake report Ukraine shelled a Russian military convoy. On Monday, the same "market" soared just under 1% as the news that had caused the "crash" was refuted. That has been the dominant rinse, repeat theme for the past month and will continue to be well after Yellen's Friday speech at Jackson Hole (although one does wonder why she is not speaking on Wednesday when the symposium begins). Not surprisingly, with only modest re-escalation news overnight (that Russia is preparing further retaliatory sanctions against the West), which is simply "pent up de-escalation" in the eyes of Keynesian algos, futures are again up a solid 0.2% and rising, and the way the rampy USDJPY is being manipulated before its pre-market blast off, we may well see the S&P hit 1980, if not a new all time high before 9:30am, let alone during today's cash session. In any event, whatever you do, don't you dare suggest that algos should care one bit about Ferguson and its implications for US society.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Russia Prepares Further Retaliation To West's "Destructive Sanctions"





If the West continues its "destructive sanction policy," Kremlin spokesman Dmirty Peskov said Moscow will deploy additional 'protective' measures. Peskov warned, "we have said several times that Russia is not a fan of speaking in terms of sanctions and has not been an initiator. But if our partners continue their non-constructive and even destructive practices, then additional measures will be developed." Of course, this escalation is merely pent-up de-escalation and therefore good reason to buy US stocks, except bonds seem a little concerned this morning that Putin's blowback will dent global growth further.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

All Eyes On Jackson Hole: Key Events In The Coming Week





The main event of the week will be Yellen's long awaited speech at the Jackson Hole 3-day symposium taking place August 21-23. The theme of this year's symposium is entitled "Re-Evaluating Labour Market Dynamics" and Yellen is expected to deliver her keynote address on Friday morning US time. Consensus is that she will likely highlight that the alternative measures of labour market slack in evaluating the ongoing significant under-utilisation of labour resources (eg, duration of employment, quit rate in JOLTS data) have yet to normalise relative to 2002-2007 levels. Any sound bite that touches on the debate of cyclical versus structural drivers of labour force participation will also be closely followed. Unlike some of the previous Jackson Hole symposiums, this is probably not one that will serve as a precursor of any monetary policy changes but the tone of Yellen's speech may still have a market impact and set the mood for busier times ahead in September.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 18





  • Yellen Dashboard Warning Light Glows as Millions Work Part Time (BBG)
  • More US drones boosting global GDP: Unidentified war planes, explosions heard in Libyan capital (Reuters)
  • London Home Asking Prices Plunge Most in More Than Six Years (BBG)
  • Carney - Rate Hike before Pay Recovers (Times)
  • No Fed fireworks, but plenty of clues, expected at Jackson Hole (Reuters)
  • Kurdish, Iraqi forces in control of Mosul dam (Reuters)
  • China Pushes Cleanup of Banks (WSJ)
  • Russia Widens Ruble Trading Band in Move Away From Managed Rate (BBG)
  • Dollar General Makes $9.7 Billion Family Dollar Counterbid (BBG)
  • Autopsy finds unarmed teen killed by police was shot six times (NYT)
  • Bull Market Waning as Barclays Sees 1% Gain for S&P 500 (BBG)
  • Credit Suisse Caught Up in Espírito Santo Mess (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

NAFTA Is 20 Years Old – Here Are 20 Facts That Show How It Is Destroying The Economy





Back in the early 1990s, the North American Free Trade Agreement was one of the hottest political issues in the country.  When he was running for president in 1992, Bill Clinton promised that NAFTA would result in an increase in the number of high quality jobs for Americans that it would reduce illegal immigration.  Ross Perot warned that just the opposite would happen.  He warned that if NAFTA was implemented there would be a "giant sucking sound" as thousands of businesses and millions of jobs left this country.  Most Americans chose to believe Bill Clinton.  Well, it is 20 years later and it turns out that Perot was right and Clinton was dead wrong.  But now history is repeating itself, and most Americans don't even realize that it is happening.  As you will read about at the end of this article, Barack Obama has been negotiating a secret trade treaty that is being called "NAFTA on steroids", and if Congress adopts it we could lose millions more good paying jobs.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Continue Levitation On More "Deescalation" Hopes Despite UK Warning Russia Of "Serious Consequences"





There were headlines for everyone this morning, but especially for fans of what is increasingly known as Russia's "Schrodinger Invasion" of East Ukraine: one which may or may not be happening depending on i) one's point of view and ii) how one is observing it.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

On The Path To War





The US is clearly now pushing Russia towards war. But if you read the signs correctly, Russia has been preparing for exactly this outcome for many years.

 
CalibratedConfidence's picture

Bank Of America & Morgan Stanley Comment On Commodities





Coal production in the U.S YoY is down 0.3 percent and continued production slowdowns could continue to hurt firms like Peabody Energy which is down almost 19 percent YTD.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How To "Value" Sovereign Bonds In 2 Words: US 'Friend' Or 'Foe'





If a trader knew nothing about the growth, the debt, the inflation, the exporters vs. importers, the serial defaulters, currency manipulators, hot-money or conversely deflation fighters; simply grouping the nations of the world on whether they were 'friend' or 'foe' to the US would provide an odd highly correlated value perspective on the interest rates paid on 1yr and 10yr sovereign debt... It appears your status with the central bank cabal was more important than your ability to repay the loaned money?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China Begins Direct Sales Of Fruit & Vegetables To Russia





Despite the ongoing mainstream media meme that Russia is becoming 'isolated' from the rest of the world thanks to Western sanctions, it appears they have found a few new 'old' friends to become un-isolated with. On the heels of Russia's food-import-ban sanctions last week, Russian and Chinese officials have announced an agreement that China will start selling fruit and vegetables directly to Russia via a special logistics center in Russia's far east. Notably, this week saw Russia's GDP beat consensus expectations, Ruble rally, and stocks jump as German confidence plunged - can you say blowback?

 
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