Australia

The EU expects 3 million refugees in 2016. This year, there will be ‘only’ 1 million. Of which resettlement deals have been made for 160,000, and at last count 116 have actually been resettled. The 1 million refugees in 2015 have already strained resources, international relationships and indeed entire governments to such an extent, wars could start just because of that. Add another 3 million, and the chances of a peaceful 2016 in Europe grow terribly slim.. The fact is that Europe risks being strained to the point of military conflict.

Once again, the two major macroeconomic announcements over the weekend came from China, where we first saw an unexpected, if still to be confirmed, increase in FX reserves, and then Chinese trade data once again disappointed tumbling by 6.9% while imports plunged 18.8%. So how did the market react? The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a fourth day and reached its highest since August 20because more bad data means more easing from the PBOC, and just to give what few investors are left the green light to come back into the pool, overnight Chinese brokers soared after Chinese IPOs returned after a 5 month hiatus. Elsewhere, Stocks and currencies in emerging markets slump on prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs before year-end and after data underscored slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy. Euro strengthens.

It is now open season on "climate change deniers" everywhere.

"The Trans-Pacific Partnership means that America will write the rules for 21st century trade," according to President Obama, but as Reuters reports, U.S. unions, lawmakers and interest groups questioned the long-awaited text of a landmark U.S.-backed Pacific trade deal on Thursday. "It's worse than we thought,” Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, told members and U.S. labor representatives said the agreement contained weak, poorly worded or unenforceable provisions, concluding "we do not believe those improvements are significant or meaningful for workers." It appears, that ObamaTrade may be a boon for factory and export economies like Malaysia and Vietnam, but - as expected - will achieve little for the average joe in America.

For those eager to cut to the chase and curious if overnight we have had another standard USDJPY ramp levitating US equity futures on low volume, the answer is yes. And since the USDJPY carry was patient enough, it managed to trigger the 2100 ES stops and as of this moment the futures were comfortably on the politically-correct side of 2100.

• S&P 500 Futures Slip as Aussie Gains on Rate Outlook; Oil Rises (BBG)
• Xi Says China Needs at Least 6.5% Growth in Next Five Years (BBG)
• Ben Carson Vaults to Lead in Latest Journal/NBC Poll (WSJ)
• World's Biggest Banks Still Not `Truly Resolvable,' FSB Says (BBG)
• Keystone XL's builder faced darkening prospects (Reuters)
• Merkel Says Germany Must Step Up World Role in Refugee Crisis (BBG)

"We’re going to come down to about twice a quarter or a little more than that. That’s the right amount to make it regular but not a constant poke in the eye."

The Federal Reserve was supposed to serve the nation, however as even Bloomberg observes today, ended up "steamrolling" Main Street. One reason why: directors such as this one. Presenting former Morgan Stanley CEO, James Gorman, whose former employer got a $107 billion loan from the Federal Reserve to avoid implosion.

On a day full of Manufacturing/PMI surveys from around the globe, the numbers everyone was looking at came out of China, where first the official, NBS PMI data disappointed after missing Mfg PMI expectations (3rd month in a row of contraction), with the Non-mfg PMI sliding to the lowest since 2008, however this was promptly "corrected" after the other Caixin manufacturing PMI soared to 48.3 in October from 47.2 in September - the biggest monthly rise of 2015 - and far better than the median estimate of 47.6, once again leading to the usual questions about China's Schrodinger economy, first defined here, which is continues to expand and contract at the same time.

"So again, I repeat, we're not considering any open-ended commitment. We're not considering any boots-on-the-ground approach."

While redistributive social spending in the US is indeed different from many other countries, the overall magnitude is actually greater (both proportionally and in absolute terms) in the US than in almost all other countries measured. One can argue that the way that the wealth is redistributed through public policy in the US is "wrong" or "suboptimal." But, to argue that there is less redistribution as a result of public policy in the US than elsewhere is simply wrong.

The most anticipated economic release over the weekend was the early glimpse into China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors via the two key PMI surveys released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, to get a sense if the slowdown across China is stabilizing or, as some have suggested, rebounding. It did not: overnight the NBS reported that the manufacturing PMI remained unchanged in October at 49.8 missing consensus estimates of a modest rebound to 50.0, its third consecutive month in contraction territory.

"If the United States continues with these kinds of dangerous, provocative acts, there could well be a seriously pressing situation between frontline forces from both sides on the sea and in the air, or even a minor incident that sparks war."

In late 2014 something happened: for whatever reason the most unregulated aspect of China's financial system, its shadow banks, not only stopped lending money but actually went into reverse, thus putting a lid on China's Total Social Financing expansion, which had been the world's "under the radar" growth dynamo for so many years. At that moment not only did China's ghost cities officially die, but it meant an imminent collapse for China's steel industry. That collapse has arrived.