Australia

Market Wrap: All Eyes On Yellen Who Better Not Disappoint

While all the algos are programmed and set to scan today's FOMC statement for whether both "patient" and "considerable time" are still there (as it did last time when it supposedly sent a pseudo-hawkish message while telling Virtu and Getco to buy, buy, buy), the market is torn between the trends observed in recent days: on one hand finally succumbing to the adverse impact of USD strength, which overnight also saw the Singapore Dollar admit defeat in the ongoing currency wars, is crushing both revenues and EPS, as well as outlooks, for the bulk of US companies, even as millennials - long since given up on buying a house - allocate their meager savings to the annual incarnation of Apple's flagship product as seen in yesterday's record, blowout numbers by AAPL which is up 8% in the premarket and sending Nasdaq futures soaring compared to the stagnant DJIA or S&P. And then there is Europe where the mood is decidedly sour this morning, with Greece imploding on fears Tsipras really means business and concerns the Greek "virus" may spread to other peripheral nations whose bonds have also seen a lack of a bond bid this morning.

"Equities Will Be Devastated" Crispin Odey Warns, Looming Recession Will Be "Remembered For 100 Years"

"I think equity markets will get devastated," warns famed $12bn AUM hedge fund manager Crispin Odey in his latest letter to investors. Having been one of the biggest bulls of this particular central bank artificial-bull cycle, his dramatic bearish tilt (as we discussed what he thinks are the biggest risks underpriced by the market previously), is notable. Finally, Odey fears major economies are entering a recession that will be "remembered in a hundred years," adding that the "bearish opportunity" to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009.

"Cheerful" Dutch Financier Becomes 4th ABN Amro Banker Suicide

Following the deaths of 36 bankers last year, 2015 has got off to an inauspicious start with the reported suicide of Chris Van Eeghen - the 4th ABN Amro banker suicide in the last few years. As Quotenet reports, the death of Van Eghen  - the head of ABN's corporate finance and capital markets -"startled" friends and colleagues as the 42-year-old "had a great reputation" at work, came from an "illustrious family," and enjoyed national fame briefly as the boyfriend of a famous actress/model. As one colleague noted, "he was always cheerful, good mood, and apparently he had everything your heart desired. He never sat in the pit, never was down, so I was extremely surprised. I can not understand." Most believe that the suicide is not related to his work at the bank, but a former colleague had noticed that on his Facebook recently changed its job title to "former." Chris leaves behind a son - who had recently been cleared of cancer.

Frontrunning: January 23

  • Saudi Arabia’s New King Probably Will Not Change Current Oil Policy (BBG)
  • Saudi King’s Death Clouds Already Tense Relationship With U.S. (WSJ)
  • Oil Pares Gains as New Saudi King Says Policies Stable (BBG)
  • Kuroda Says BOJ to Mull Fresh Options in Case of More Easing (BBG)
  • U.S. pulls more staff from Yemen embassy amid deepening crisis (Reuters)
  • Putin Said to Shrink Inner Circle as Hawks Beat Billionaires (BBG)
  • A Few Savvy Investors Had Swiss Central Bank Figured Out (WSJ)

Market Wrap: Futures Unchanged As Algos Patiently Await The ECB's "Monumental Decision"

With less than two hours until the ECB unveils its first official quantitative easing program, the markets appear to be in a unchanged daze. Well, not all markets: the Japanese bond market overnight suffered its worst sell off in months on a jump in volume, although for context this means the 10Year dropping from 0.25% to 0.32%. Whether this is a hint of the "sell the news" that may follow Draghi's announcement is unclear, although Europe has seen comparable weakness across its bond space as well and the US 10 Year has sold off all the way to 1.91%, which is impressive considering it was trading under 1.80% just a few days ago. Stocks for now are largely unchanged with futures barely budging and tracking the USDJPY which after rising above 118 again overnight, has seen active selling ever since the close of the Japanese session.

Frontrunning: January 21

  • Obama Targets Income Gap in Address That Shapes 2016 Election (BBG)
  • Republicans Reject Obama’s Main Economic Proposals (WSJ)
  • Senate’s Shelby Says White House Bank Tax Is Dead on Arrival (BBG)
  • Is Dollar Next? Investors Reassess After Swiss Shock: Currencies (BBG)
  • Bank of Japan Cuts Price Forecast, Maintains Record Stimulus (BBG)
  • Pound Weakens After BOE Policy Makers Drop Call to Raise Rates (BBG)
  • Putin not flinching on Ukraine despite economic crisis (Reuters)
  • Indonesia will not make public full preliminary AirAsia crash report (Reuters)
  • Party Hasn't Stopped for Russians at Davos Even With Ukraine Sanctions (BBG)

Frontrunning: January 20

  • Obama to focus on middle class in State of Union address (Reuters) - all 4 of them?
  • European Stocks Buoyed by ECB Hopes (WSJ)
  • China's 2014 economic growth misses target, hits 24-year low (Reuters)
  • Federer on Swiss Franc Shock: "Does It Mean I've Got to Win Now?" (BBG)
  • First-time buyers help Christie’s reach record sales (FT)
  • So it was the NSA? U.S. Spies Tapped North Korean Computers Prior to Sony Hack (BBG)
  • Why Chinese Developer Kaisa's Default Risk Has Money Managers Spooked (BBG)
  • Morgan Stanley Misses Estimates on Drop in Bond-Trading Revenue (BBG)

Market Wrap: Global Markets Weighed As Damage From SNB Evaluated, FX Brokers Carried Out

One day after the SNB stunner roiled markets, overnight global markets have seen - as expected - substanial downward pressure, with the Swiss market slide resuming post open, while European stocks have seen some pressure despite what is now an assured ECB QE announcement next week. However, the one trade that can not be mistaken is the global rush into the safety of government paper, with every single treasury yielding less today than yesterday (the Swiss 10Y was trading below 0% at last check), except for Greek 10Y which are wider on deposit run fears. That said, with capital market liquidity absolutely non-existent even the smallest trade has a disproportionate effect on futures, and expect to see much more rangebound trading until the damage report from the SNB action is fully digested, something which will take place over the weekend.

Behold China's $300 Billion Accounting 'Fudge' (Or Where The Corrupt Money Flows)

When an accounting 'fudge' accounts for $300 billion of a nation's Balance of Payments, you might suspect something is amiss. And sure enough, as Goldman notes, the growing 'error and emission' items in China’s balance of payments may reflect a pickup in hidden cash transfers as China's anti-corruption probes encouraged  the corrupt oligarchs to get their money out of dodge. As Goldman warns, "such outflows may be harder to contain with regulations, a continuation of their recent acceleration could start posing tangible financial stability concerns."