Simple review of technical condition of the capital markets. Light on polemical zeal, and heavy on technical analysis.
The euro has fallen an unprecedented eight weeks in a row. The dollar set new five year highs against the yen before the weekend. Here is an overview of the near-term technical outlook.
Dispassionate look at the week ahead, without the hysterics of the sky is falling or the mother of all crises is around the corner.
Overview of the technical outlook for the major currencies, bonds, Treasuries, stocks, CRB and oil.
- FTW: Europe Stocks Rise as Data Signals Need for Stimulus (BBG)
- More de-escalation: Dozens die in Ukraine in street battles, Donetsk shelling (Reuters)
- Calm largely holds in Missouri after grand jury opens shooting investigation (Reuters)
- Attorney General Eric Holder Vows Thorough Probe of Ferguson Shooting (WSJ)
- World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Slows Emerging Market Investment (BBG)
- Market Chilly to Argentine Debt Proposal (WSJ)
- Israeli air strike kills three Hamas commanders in Gaza (Reuters)
- Retooled Hamas Bloodies Israel With Help From Hezbollah (BBG)
- Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers (WSJ)
- Fed Debates Early Rate Increases (WSJ)
Overview of the technical conditions of the major markets.
Overview of the price action in various currencies, S&P 500, Treasuries and the CRB Index
Dispassionate, non-conspiratorial rant , fact-based high level discussion of the sigificant drivers of the week ahead.
A look at the price action in the major currencies, US Treasuries and the S&P 500.
Near-term outlook for the dollar, without resorting to inflammatory and unproven claims.
A look at key events and data in the week ahead.
Overview of the price action in the forward exchange market and a look ahead.
But... but... the VIX said everything is ok, and European rates were the lowest they have been in centuries... How can something possibly go wrong?
It just did.
Dispassionate overview of the price action in the foreign exchange market in the context of the funamental developments.
Once again, US equity futures are roughly unchanged (while Treasurys have seen a surprising overnight bid coming out of Asia) ahead of an avalanche of macroeconomic news both in Europe, where the ECB will deliver its monthly message, and in the US where we will shortly get jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing, trade balance, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average earnings, Markit U.S. composite PMI, Markit U.S. services PMI due later. Of course the most important number is the June NFP payrolls and to a lesser extent the unemployment rate, which consensus expects at 215K and 6.3%, although the whisper number is about 30K higher following yesterday's massive ADP outlier. Nonetheless, keep in mind that a) ADP is a horrible predictor of NFP, with a 40K average absolute error rate and b) in December the initial ADP print was 151K higher than the nonfarms. Those watching inflation will be far more focused on hourly earnings, expected to rise 0.2% M/M and 1.9% Y/Y. Should wages continue to stagnate and decline on a real basis, expect to hear the "stagflation" word much more often in the coming weeks.