It looks like US dollar's two-month downside correction ended. Is the bull market resuming?
Dollar downmove still seems corrective in nature. Fed hike in September still seems most likely scenario. Taalk of US recession is over the top when unemployment, broadly measured is falling and weekly initial jobless claims are at new cyclical lows.
A straightforward analysis of the near-term outlook for the dollar, oil, 10-year US and German yields and the S&P 500.
A wrong-way bet on AUDUSD looks to have cost one of London's most well-known money managers dearly last month as Crispin Odey's flagship fund takes a 19% hit.
Yesterday, when we heard that China brokers may impose tighter margin requirements to contain what is now a laughable stock bubble we said that tonight's Shanghai session could get exciting: "China may get exciting: Some China Brokers Raise Margin Trading Requirement: Sec. News" It did: overnight the Shanghai Composite tumbled by 4.1% to under 4300, the biggest one day drop since January 19.
A look at the drivers for the week ahead.
Yogi Berra, one of the keenest observers of the human condition, is said to have once remarked "It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future." And so it is.
Trying to make sense of the global capital markets.
After trending sharply higher in recent months, the US dollar has entered a consolidative range against most of the major currencies.
The US dollar has been even stronger than this bull thought let alone the perma-bears. Here's why,
For the third month in a row, FX 'traders' in AUD "guessed" the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision in the seconds before it was released to the public. Aussie regulators, seemingly furious at the blatant-ness of the front-running, confirmed they will be investigating the price spike overnight...
A dispassionate look at the drivers of the investment climate in the week ahead.
Even before the disappointing US jobs data, we anticipated a downside correction in the dollar after a sharp advance in Q1.
* Silver surges 6.5% in dollars and 19% and 12% in euros and pounds *Oil and most commodities declined on economic concerns in the quarter (see table) *U.S. stocks eked out minor gains to new record highs and look toppy *Gold performance impressive given strength of dollar and equities, oil collapse and negative sentiment
A non-bombastic look at the week ahead in the capital markets.