Australian Dollar

A non-bombastic analysis of the events and data in the week ahead, with insulting anyone or resorting to conspiracy theories.

Regardless of where one thinks the dollar is going in the long-term, here is a discussion of where it will likely go in the short-term.  

The dollar's pause may be short-lived.  Divergence still the key driver.  

China will be a net buyer, and a net importer of physical gold for years to come. In and of itself that won’t necessarily cause a sharp rally in gold prices anytime soon, but gold acquisition from the Chinese state and her citizens, as well as emerging market central banks the world over will continue to provide support for the physical gold market. Those that have sold gold in the past few days (and there have been plenty in the ETF and futures markets) as a result of the “disappointing” number out of China may have just caused the capitulation event that typically marks the bottom of any bear market.

The dollar made new multi-year highs against the dollar-bloc and is bid against most major and em currncies.  Why?  

Non-bombastic look at the price action and speculative positioning, with the hope of anticipating next week's developments.

Initial conditions matter when contemplating impact of Greek referendum

A look at the psycholgoy of traders as reflected in the price action ahead the new week which promises to be eventful.

Trying to make sense of the global capital markets.

No follow through dollar buying against euro, yen and sterling after data showing US economyis recovering from weak Q1.  What is happening?  What is the outlook?

The bounce in risk we are witnessing today will not last. The underlying moves in the largest markets in the world are equal to those we saw during the 2008 Crash. Stocks are ALWAYS the last to "get it."

Grit your teeth if you have to.  Cry if you want to.  US labor market is improving and the dollar is strengthening.

A non-bombastic look at the week ahead and a number of key events in June.  These could set the tone for Q3 and beyond.

Combination of important events/data and large move in last two weeks, the dollar may pullback/consolidate in the days ahead.

It looks like US dollar's two-month downside correction ended.  Is the bull market resuming?