Australian Dollar

Overview of the price action in the forward exchange market and a look ahead.  

But... but... the VIX said everything is ok, and European rates were the lowest they have been in centuries... How can something possibly go wrong?

It just did.

Dispassionate overview of the price action in the foreign exchange market in the context of the funamental developments.    

Once again, US equity futures are roughly unchanged (while Treasurys have seen a surprising overnight bid coming out of Asia) ahead of an avalanche of macroeconomic news both in Europe, where the ECB will deliver its monthly message, and in the US where we will shortly get jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing, trade balance, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average earnings, Markit U.S. composite PMI, Markit U.S. services PMI due later. Of course the most important number is the June NFP payrolls and to a lesser extent the unemployment rate, which consensus expects at 215K and 6.3%, although the whisper number is about 30K higher following yesterday's massive ADP outlier. Nonetheless, keep in mind that a) ADP is a horrible predictor of NFP, with a 40K average absolute error rate and b) in December the initial ADP print was 151K higher than the nonfarms. Those watching inflation will be far more focused on hourly earnings, expected to rise 0.2% M/M and 1.9% Y/Y. Should wages continue to stagnate and decline on a real basis, expect to hear the "stagflation" word much more often in the coming weeks.

A thumbnail sketch of the main events of during the week ahead.

Overview of the price action in the foreign exchange market and a short word on US 10-year Treasuries.

An overview of the price action in the FX market and a look at US 10-year yields.  No ride on an ideological hobbie horse or axe to grind.  Just trying to make sense of the price aciton

With newsflow out of Iraq having slowed down as has the ISIS offensive, which appears to have been halted north of Baghdad, the market now shifts its attention to the Fed's two-day meeting which begins today and continues through tomorrow afternoon, when it will be leaked by media outlets to ultra-wealthy speculators and robots, breaching the embargo (in exchange for a hefty payoff) some 10 minutes before 2 pm.

It is difficult to talk about the dollar in the abstract, especially when it is falling against the dollar-bloc and rising against the euro bloc.  Dispassionate overview.  

A look at the likely price action in the forex market in the week ahead.

Dispassionae look at the several events in the week ahead.  

Could the euro rally on a 10-15 bp cut in key rates?  Technical indicators suggest this may be likely.  

The near-term outlook for the US dollar appears to be improving.  Here is why.  

A look at the technical condition of the foreign exchange market.

Here is the technical reasons why the euro, sterling and Swiss franc retreat is a likely a correction rather than a change of the underlying trend.  US 10-year yields near lows and a recovery could lift the greenback vs JPY.