BAC

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Frontrunning: November 21





  • When it fails, do more of it - Bank of Japan hints at extending ultra-loose monetary policy (FT)
  • PBOC Says No Longer in China’s Interest to Increase Reserves (BBG)
  • Fed casts about for endgame on easy-money policy  (Hilsenrath)
  • Big trucks still rule Detroit in energy-conscious era (Reuters)
  • Debt Limit Rise May Not Be Needed Until June, CBO Says (BBG)
  • Some Insurance Regulators Turn Down White House Invitation (WSJ)
  • Say Goodbye to the Car Salesman (WSJ)
  • U.S. drone kills senior militant in Pakistani seminary (Reuters)
  • French business sector contracts sharply (FT)
  • How Germany's taxman used stolen data to squeeze Switzerland (Reuters)
  • Fed casts about for endgame on easy-money policy (WSJ)
  • France, Italy call for full-time Eurogroup chief (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: November 20





  • JPMorgan $13 Billion Mortgage Deal Seen as Lawsuit Shield (BBG)
  • J.P. Morgan Is Haunted by a 2006 Decision on Mortgages (WSJ)
  • World powers, Iran in new attempt to reach nuclear deal (Reuters)
  • Keystone Foes Seek to Thwart Oil Sands Exports by Rail (BBG) - mostly Warren Buffet?
  • How Would Fed Deal With Debt Ceiling Crisis? Look to Minutes for Clues  (Hilsenrath)
  • Anything to prevent the loss of prop trading: 'Volcker Rule' Faces New Hurdles (WSJ)
  • BOE Sees Case for Keeping Record-Low Rate Beyond 7% Jobless (BBG)
  • Obama Backs Piecemeal Immigration Overhaul (WSJ)
  • Abenomics Seen Cutting Japan Bad-Loan Costs to 2006 Low (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: November 15





  • China to Ease One-Child Policy (WSJ), China announces major economic and social reforms (Reuters)
  • Consumers line up for launch of PlayStation 4 (USAToday)
  • Trust frays between Obama, Democrats (Politico)
  • Yellen Stands by Fed Strategy  (Hilsenrath)
  • Hero to zero? Philippine president feels typhoon backlash (Reuters)
  • Brussels warns Spain and Italy on budgets (FT)
  • Moody’s Downgrades Four U.S. Banks on Federal Support Review  (BBG)
  • CIA's Financial Spying Bags Data on Americans (WSJ)
  • Germany Digs In Against Risk Sharing in EU Bank-Failure Plan (BBG)
  • Bill Gates wants Norway's $800 billion fund to spend more in Africa, Asia (RTRS)
 
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Complete Hedge Fund Q3 13F Holdings And Position Changes Summary





Here is a summary of the key stock additions, sales, initiations and liquidations conducted by the most prominent US hedge funds in the third quarter.

 
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Frontrunning: November 13





  • Desperate Philippine typhoon survivors loot, dig up water pipes (Reuters)
  • Fading Japanese market momentum frustrates investors (FT)
  • China's meager aid to the Philippines could dent its image (Reuters)
  • Headline du jour: Granted 'decisive' role, Chinese markets decide to slide (Reuters)
  • Central Banks Risk Asset Bubbles in Battle With Deflation Danger (BBG)
  • Navy Ship Plan Faces Pentagon Budget Cutters (WSJ)
  • Investors pitch to take over much of Fannie and Freddie (FT)
  • To expand Khamenei’s grip on the economy, Iran stretched its laws (Reuters)
  • Short sellers bet that gunmaker shares are no long shot (FT)
  • Deflation threat in Europe may prompt investment rethink (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: November 7





  • Twitter's IPO to Make Market Debut (WSJ); Twitter Raises $1.82 Billion, Pricier Value Than Facebook (BBG)
  • Worried Senators Press Obama on Health Law (WSJ)
  • Greenspan Says Yellen Was His Guide to Economics Research at Fed (BBG)
  • European Central Bank seen holding rates despite inflation tumble (Reuters)
  • Wall St. Bonuses Over All Are Predicted to Rise 5 to 10% (NYT)
  • Cautious consumers seen curbing U.S. economic growth (Reuters)
  • China Grants U.S. Investors Indirect Access to Its Stock Markets (WSJ)
  • Higher Tax Rates Give Top U.S. Earners Year-End Headaches (BBG)
  • Iran Loses Nuclear Leverage as World Ignores Export Drop (BBG)
  • NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly in the running for JPMorgan job (Post)
 
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Frontrunning: October 18





  • Republican Civil War Erupts: Business Groups v. Tea Party (BBG)
  • Budget fight leaves Boehner 'damaged' but still standing (Reuters)
  • Madoff Was Like a God, Wizard of Oz, Lawyers Tell Jury (BBG) - just like Bernanke
  • Republicans press U.S. officials over Obamacare snags (Reuters)
  • Brilliant: Fed Unlikely to Trim Bond Buying in October (Hilsenrath)
  • More brilliant: Fed could taper as early as December (FT)
  • Russia Roofing Billionaires Seen Among Country’s Youngest (BBG)
  • Ford's Mulally won't dismiss Boeing, Microsoft speculation (Reuters)
  • China reverses first-half slowdown (FT)
  • NY Fed’s Fired Goldman Examiner Makes Weird Case (BBG)
 
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Bank Of America Misses Despite Surge In Reserve Releases Amounting To Over Quarter Of Q3 "Earnings"





On the surface, the latest Q3 bank numbers to come out of Bank of America today, were not quite as bad as those previously reported by the other TBTFs, namely JPM, Wells and Citi. At a (massively adjuste4d) EPS of $0.20, this was just 1 cent below the expected $0.21, even as net revenue of $21.74 billion missed expectations of $21.95 billion. So far so good. At least so good until one realizes that of the $5.1 billion in pretax income, some 1.4 billion, or over a quarter, was from the usual accounting magic well of gimmicks: loan loss reserve releases! In fact, the $1.391 billion in reserve reduction driven by $1.7 billion in charge offs offset by a tiny $0.3 billion in provisions, was the highest reserve release in the past year, only lower than last Q3's $2.3 billion, when the bank - just like today - was in desperate need of any source of fake earnings. Why? Because the bank's loan origination group, just like all other banks', cratered, and saw non-interest income in its real estate services division implode by $1.5 billion to just $844 million. So much for whatever housing recovery the rose-colored glasses ones had envisioned...

 
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Frontrunning: October 8





  • Hilsenrath: Tense Negotiations Inside the Fed Produced Muddled Signals to Markets (WSJ)
  • Biggest US Foreign Creditors Show Concern on Default Risk (BBG)
  • Shutdown Costs at $1.6 Billion With $160 Million Each Day (BBG)
  • What default? Republicans downplay impact of U.S. debt limit (Reuters)
  • Top Bankers Warn on U.S. Debt Proposal (WSJ)
  • India to stick with austerity despite looming election (Reuters)
  • Japan's Current-Account Surplus Plunges (WSJ)
  • Amazon Wins Ruling for $600 Million CIA Cloud Contract (BBG)
  • German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall on Weak Recovery (BBG)
  • Britain's Higgs, Belgium's Englert win 2013 physics Nobel prize (Reuters)
  • Supreme Owner Made a Billionaire Feeding U.S. War Machine (BBG)
 
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A Depressed Bank Of America Predicts "Agreement Is Almost Impossible As Long As Obamacare Is On The Table"





Bank of America's latest forecast on the resolution, or lack thereof, of the government shutdown, which now seems virtually certain to last at least one week into Monday night, when the House and Senate return to work, is hardly encouraging. The bank's base case now calls for "either a two-week shutdown or for multiple shutdowns." Additional, BofA has now cut its Q3 GDP forecast from 2.0% to 1.7% and from 2.5% to 2.0% for 4Q. It gets worse: "Much worse outcomes are possible. In our view, agreement is almost impossible as long as the Affordable Care Act is on the table." Finally, and what ties it all together, is that as a result of the lack of "government data", BAC now expects the Fed to delay tapering to their January meeting, or later. Which may well have been the much needed alibi all along to delayed tapering until 2014.

 
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Frontrunning: October 2





  • U.S. Government Shut Down With No Quick Resolution Seen (BBG)
  • 12 House Republicans now say they’d back a ‘clean’ CR (WaPo)
  • Republicans’ 2014 Senate Edge Muddied by Shutdown Message (BBG)
  • Obama Shortens Asia Trip Due to Government Shutdown (WSJ)
  • Fed Said to Review Commodities at Goldman, Morgan Stanley (BBG)
  • Foreign Firms Tap U.S. Gas Bonanza (WSJ)
  • Behind Standoff, a Broken Process in Need of a Broker (WSJ)
  • Japan Awaits Abe’s Third Arrow as Companies Urged to Invest (BBG)
  • Microsoft investors push for chairman Gates to step down (Reuters)
 
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Coming Soon To A Theater Near You: MBIA's $1 Billion World War Z





Frequent readers will recall that in the past, on several occasions, we expected that MBIA would rise due to two key catalysts: a massive short interest and the expectation that a BAC settlement would provide the company with much needed liquidity. That thesis played out earlier this year resulting in a stock price surge that also happened to be the company's 52 week high. However, now that we have moved away from the technicals and litigation catalysts, and looking purely at the fundamentals, it appears that MBIA has a new problem. One involving Zombies. These freshly-surfacing problems stem from a particular pair of Zombie CLO’s – Zombie-I and Zombie-II (along with Zombie-III, illiquid/black box middle-market CLO’s).  While information is  difficult to gather, we have heard that MBIA would be lucky to recover much more than $400 million from the underlying insured Zombie assets over the next three years, which would leave them with a nearly $600 million loss on their $1 billion of exposure which would materially and adversely impact the company's liquidity.  And as it may take them a while to liquidate assets in a sure-to-be contentious intercreditor fight – their very own World War Z – MBIA may well have to part with the vast majority of the $1 billion in cash, before gathering some of the potential recovery.

 
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Frontrunning: September 17





  • Less Tapering Becomes Tightening Credit No Matter What Fed Says (BBG)
  • Yellen Is Now Top Fed Hopeful (WSJ)
  • Syria - A chemical crime, a complex reaction (Reuters)
  • More ECB collateral: Wrecked cruise ship Costa Concordia raised off rocks in Italy (Reuters)
  • Aging Boomers Befuddle Marketers Eying $15 Trillion Prize (BBG)
  • Abe Turns Pitchman, Says Japan Is Now A Buy (WSJ)
  • Ex-JPMorgan Employees Indicted Over $6.2 Billion Loss (BBG)
  • Barack Obama blinked first in battle for Lawrence Summers (FT)
  • Berlusconi to support Italian government in video message: sources (Reuters)
  • How China Lost Its Mojo: One Town's Story (WSJ)
 
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