Bain

Futures Flat Ahead Of Yellen As Geopolitical Risks Loom; Fear Barometer Spikes

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open, while Asian and European stocks are likewise modestly in the red. Trading volumes are muted for most markets on Monday with investors spooked by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. It is also a holiday-shortened week in much of the West.

The American Dream, Twice Removed

"The demise of America comes in small steps. But it’s unstoppable. The same is true for every other housing bubble. When no-one can afford to buy a home anymore but a bunch of Russians and Chinese, rental prices surge. And then shortly after that the whole thing goes up in smoke."

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

Dollar Slide Accelerates After Fed Fails To Boost Confidence, Pressures US Futures

European shares and S&P futures fell amid mixed earnings from corporate heavyweights, while Asian stocks were fractionally higher. The dollar slump continued against all its major peers after the Federal Reserve gave dollar bulls little to be optimistic about.  The U.S. currency dropped toward the lowest close since November after the Fed reiterated its intention on Wednesday to lift rates only gradually.

Frontrunning: December 21

  • Futures little changed after Dow, Nasdaq hit records (Reuters); Europe Stocks’ Rally Dims as Banks Drop; Oil Gains (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi says could run out of liquidity after four months (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Lose EU Case on Mortgage Interest Repayments (BBG)
  • Russia says trust needed for global oil output deal to be success (Reuters)
  • U.S. plays down absence from Moscow talks on Syria, says not 'sidelined' (Reuters)

S&P Set To Open At All Time High, Boosted By Rising Crude On More "OPEC Deal Optimism"

European and Asian stocks rose after the early scare from the latest Fukushima quake dissipated, with the global risk on mood spurred by another jump in crude, which was up 1% in early trading, with the commodity complex now enjoying its biggest three-day rally since May, after Nigeria signaled optimism that OPEC will agree a supply-cut deal next week in Vienna. S&P futures are up 0.3%, with the cash index set to open at new record highs.

Frontrunning: November 10

  • Trump Victory Starts New Era for GOP (WSJ)
  • President-Elect Trump Goes to Washington to Begin Transition (BBG)
  • Trump Team Plans First Months (WSJ)
  • The Promises of President-elect Donald Trump, in His Own Words (BBG)
  • Donald Trump Transition Team Planning First Months in Office (WSJ)

"The Frightening Thing Is People Don't Know They're Selling Insurance" - An Interview With An Ex-Canyon CDS Trader

“the world has now shifted completely in the opposite direction, that people are selling that insurance over and over and over again, not recognizing what they're actually selling, and not necessarily conducting an evaluation of, are there cheaper ways to sell that-- or more expensive ways to sell that same insurance, effectively capturing more premium for doing the same thing.

European, EM Stocks Slide On ECB Taper Concerns; US Futures Flat

With China on holiday, overnight sessions remain relatively quiet: at this moment, S&P500 futures are little changed as European stocks fall for first day in seven, on yesterday's concern that the ECB is moving toward tightening monetary policy; Asian indices rose slightly for third day. WTI climbs to $49.40, the highest since June 30 after yesterday's surprisingly large API crude draw report.

IEX Set To Revolutionize Gold Trading With Blockchain-Based Exchange

The IEX Group, which shocked market participants on August 19 when it became the first official exchange to offer a mechanism to bypass HFT predatory algos and frontrunning against all odds, including vocal complaints by established players like Nasdaq and Citadel, now seeks to revolutionize the more than $5 trillion-a-year gold market with a new exchange being created by its spinoff TradeWind Markets, Reuters reports.

Frontrunning: June 13

  • Chaos, Carnage Amid Orlando Rampage (WSJ)
  • FBI Twice Probed Orlando Gunman (WSJ)
  • How the Orlando Shooting Unfolded (WSJ)
  • Brexit fear factor sends stocks spinning (Reuters)
  • Pound Judgment Day Means Either D

Futures Flat Ahead Of Strike-Impacted Jobs Report; Commodities Approach Bull Market

After yesterday's two key events, the ECB and OPEC meetings, ended up being major duds, the market is looking at the week's final and perhaps most important event of the week: the May payrolls report to generate some upward volatility and help stocks finally break out of the range they have been caught in for over a year.