Bain

The fact is, the die is cast. In a couple of weeks, Guitar Center will need to report its Christmas performance to its bondholders. If things do not look good, its bonds will be ripped apart like RadioShack’s. Here’s what this really means: it’s the end of big box retail, an irrational addiction to growth, and the scourge of unregulated structured finance. For a few years, unwise urban planning and unregulated banks created a new bubble in the American suburbs. The objective truth is that the growth of the last decade was financed by banking fraud, and that financial trickery of this sort only fools people in the short-term. Eventually, you must have a product people demand, sold by competent people who care about the business, financed in a way that makes sense.

• Fed seen remaining patient with rate guidance amid global turmoil (Reuters)
• National Weather Service apologizes for blizzard forecast miss (CBS)
• Greek PM Tsipras pushes on with radical change, markets tumble (Reuters)
• Obama Drops Plan to Raise Taxes on ‘529’ College Savings Accounts (WSJ)
• Hard Choices on Easy Money Lie Ahead for Fed Chief (Hilsenrath)
• Debt That Once Boosted Its Cities Now Burdens China (WSJ)
• Skymark Said to File for Bankruptcy After Airbus Deal Flops (BBG)
• Heavy Fighting Drains Ukraine Government’s Options and Finances (WSJ)

A week ago, we were surprised to learn that one of the most prominent critics of HFT, Joseph Stiglitz, had been barred from an SEC Panel that will "advise regulators on issues facing U.S. equity markets."  Today, a day after the SEC busted DirectEdge for failing to "accurately describe the order types being used on the exchanges" namely the infamous Hide not Slide, even after said order had repeatedly made the front page of the WSJ, the SEC finally announced the full list of members of the "New Equity Market Structure Advisory Committee" which will focus on the structure and operations of the U.S. equities markets. Alas most of the committee members are, sadly, placeholding figureheads. Because there is only one person on the list whose participation matters, and whose presence is not at all surprising...

Despite the authorities' best efforts to keep everything orderly, we know how this global Game of Geopolitical Tetris ends: "Players lose a typical game of Tetris when they can no longer keep up with the increasing speed, and the Tetriminos stack up to the top of the playing field. This is commonly referred to as topping out."

"I’m tired of being outraged!"

• Moody’s Downgrades Japan’s Credit Rating (WSJ)
• China Factory Gauge Drops as Shutdowns Add to Slowdown (BBG)
• Euro zone factory growth stalls in November as new orders sink (Reuters)
• Espírito Santo Faces Money-Laundering Investigations (WSJ)
• Oil at $40 Possible as Market Transforms Caracas to Iran (BBG)
• Hong Kong warns protesters not to return after clashes close government HQ (Reuters)
• Bond Secrets Decoded 9,539 Miles From Wall Street in Lot (BBG)
• Ruble Rally Turns to Rout as Fortunes Tied to Sinking Oil (BBG)
• Loans Made in Blink as Banks, Funds Vie for LendingClub Clients (BBG)

• Grand jury expected to resume Ferguson police shooting deliberations (Reuters)
• PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (BBG)
• Home prices dropped in September for the first time since January (HousingWire)
• UPS Teaches Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge NYC Taxis (BBG)
• US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low (FT)
• Hedge Funds Bet on Coal-Mining Failures (WSJ)
• Putin Woos Pakistan as Cold War Friend India Buys U.S. Arms (BBG)
• How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion (BBG)
• The $31 Billion Bet Against Brazil’s New Finance Minister (BBG)

• No Sign of Thaw in Obama’s Brief Encounters With Putin (BBG)
• Japan Lawmakers Prepare for Snap Elections as Abe Mulls Tax (BBG)
• Global stocks rise, Brent crude hits four-year low (Reuters)
• U.S., China to Drop Tariffs on Range of Tech Products (WSJ)
• ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ Rule Would Raise Bar for Bank Capital (WSJ) ... and mean even bigger taxpayer bailouts
• Pot in New York: $100 Ticket. No Charges. No Record. No Nothing (BBG)
• Microsoft unveils first Lumia smartphone without Nokia name (Reuters)
• Davos-Man Ackermann Lured to Cyprus Bank by Billionaires (BBG)
• Alibaba, Apple Talks on Payments Tie-Up Focused on China (WSJ)

• Russia bans all U.S. food, EU fruit and vegetables in sanctions response (Reuters)
• Snowden receives three-year Russian residence permit (Reuters)
• Headline of the day: Europe's Recovery Menaced by Putin as Ukraine Crisis Bites (BBG)
• Americans worry that illegal migrants threaten way of life, economy (Reuters)
• Almost 90% of Uninsured Won't Pay Penalty Under the Affordable Care Act in 2016 (WSJ)
• Germany’s Bond Advance Sends 2-Year Note Yield Below Zero (BBG)
• Gaza War’s Critics in Crosshairs as Israelis Back Offensive (BBG)
• The 1% May Be Richer Than You Think, Research Shows (BBG)
• Bank of America Near $16 Billion to $17 Billion Settlement (WSJ)
• Deep Water Fracking Next Frontier for Offshore Drilling (BBG)

We believe that a more transparent and reliable fixing could lead to higher gold prices as we suspect that prices are artificially low at this time and do not reflect the delicate supply demand balance in the physical gold market ... Nor do they capture the degree of systemic and geopolitical risk in the world today."

• Obama Administration Widens Export Potential for U.S. Oil (BBG)
• WTI Pares Gains as U.S. Export Ruling Seen Limited (BBG)
• Senator Cochran defeats Tea Party rival in Mississippi Republican runoff (Reuters)
• Militants attack Iraq air base, U.S. assessment teams deploy (Reuters)
• Maliki rules out national emergency govt (AFP)
• Koch to Start EU Power Trading as It Plans LNG Expansion (BBG)
• Obama Said to Ready Sanctions on Russian Industries (BBG)
• Ghana Sends Plane With $3 Million to Calm World Cup Team (BBG)
• Ghana’s First Hedge Fund Planned by Ex-Exchange Regulator (BBG)
• SEC Is Gearing Up to Focus on Ratings Firms (WSJ)
• Abe Declares Deflation End as Growth Plan Confronts Skeptics (BBG)

• Must be an early winter: Housing Falters as Forecasters See U.S. Sales Dropping  (BBG)
• China Property Failures Seen as $33 Billion in Trusts Due (BBG)
• Polish Prime Minister Says Recording Scandal May Trigger Early Election (WSJ)
• Iraqi forces ready push after Obama offers advisers (Reuters)
• Priorities: U.S. cuts aid to Uganda, cancels military exercise over anti-gay law (Reuters)
• Kurds' Takeover of Iraqi City of Kirkuk Strengthens Their Hand (WSJ)
• U.S. says government lab workers possibly exposed to anthrax (Reuters)
• Netflix Up 21% With Tesla: The best U.S. stocks this month are ones that just a few months ago were the biggest losers (BBG)
• Architects of Iraq Invasion Return to Blame Obama (BBG)
• Nato claims Moscow funding anti-fracking groups (FT)
• Lawmakers Skeptical GM Bosses Were Unaware of Defect (WSJ)
• Corinthian Colleges Warns of Possible Shutdown (WSJ)
• Taiwan's Quanta to start mass production of Apple's smartwatch in July (Reuters)

• Iraqi Drama Catches U.S. Off Guard (WSJ)
• Al-Qaeda Offshoot on NATO Border Threatens Turkish Rally (BBG)
• It's just the snow, people: U.S. Economic Recovery Looks Distant as Growth Lingers (NYT)
• Freed Taliban leaders may remain in Qatar beyond one-year travel ban (Reuters)
• BNP Paribas Executive Chodron de Courcel to Quit Post (WSJ)
• Greenmail is back (WSJ)
• Facebook Places Multiple Bets to Win Messenger Wars (BBG)
• ECB easing to benefit Ukraine, Russia corporate bonds (Reuters)
• Rome Shows the World How Not to Run Bike-Sharing Program (BBG)

It appears the tit-for-tat cyber-spying debacle between China and the US is escalating (unless it's all curious coincidence). Having blasted the US as a "mincing rascal" and "high-level hooligan" in the Chinese (state-run) media, The FT reports that authorities have ordered state-owned enterprises to cut ties with US consulting companies such as McKinsey and Boston Consulting Group because of fears they are spying on behalf of the US government. Furthermore, the crackdown is worse as, in the face of the "US hacker empire," China’s leaders announced on Thursday that all foreign IT products and services sold in China would be subject to a new security screening process. So it seems China has entered both the currency war (CNY weakness) and protectionism racket... now how has that ended for the world in the past?

Never in a million years did we think we’d ever use an article by Andrew Ross Sorkin as the basis of a blog post, but here we are. While probably entirely unintentional, his article serves to further solidify as accurate the prevailing notion across America that former head of the New York Federal Reserve and Obama’s first Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, is nothing more than an addled, crony, bureaucratic banker cabin boy. Simply put, "Geithner is so bad, he actually makes Larry Summers look good."

This eruption of late cycle bubble finance hardly needs comment. Below are highlights from a Bloomberg Story detailing the recent surge of leveraged recaps by the big LBO operators. These maneuvers amount to piling more debt on already heavily leveraged companies, but not to fund Capex or new products, technology or process improvements that might give these debt mules an outside chance of survival over time. No, the freshly borrowed cash from a leveraged recap often does not even leave the closing conference room - it just gets recycled out as a dividend to the LBO sponsors who otherwise hold a tiny sliver of equity at the bottom of the capital structure. This is financial strip-mining pure and simple - and is a by-product of the Fed’s insane repression of interest rates.