Balance Sheet Recession

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Odds Soar After WSJ Report Of Trump Meeting

Kevin Warsh's PredictIt odds to be the next Fed chair soared moments ago after the WSJ reported that President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met with the former Fed governor on Thursday to discuss his potential nomination as the next Federal Reserve chairman.

Oh Canada - Reflections On An Economic Experiment

"...the real problem is with the Fed’s unwillingness to surprise markets. They are convinced that moves should be telegraphed well in advance.. the Fed is a slave to market expectations...Well, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is willing to take the other side of this view. Arguing that in normal times, there is no need for such guidance..."

Sell US, Buy Japan?

"...Yeah, yeah, I know. Japan’s demographics are terrible. Their debt to GDP is mind numbingly large. It certainly appears as if their ability to grow is hampered by many handicaps... But since when have fundamentals mattered?"

The "Sinister" Side Of Central Bank-Issued Digital Currency

Central banks and international financial institutions represent? - ?and work for? - ?creditors first and people second. That is why they can be serially wrong with so little direct consequence. This is the backdrop against which we are invited to trust the banking system with central bank-issued digital currency.

Traveling Circus

After Wednesday’s policy statements by the Fed and Bank of Japan, a harsh light is being shined on the incredible nature of their communications. It would be wise in the current environment to structure investment portfolios with a pro-volatility bias.

Why One Hedge Fund Is Once Again Preparing For The End Of The Euro

"The time for treating the EUR-peg as a taboo may soon be past us, and an open discussion become the dominant narrative, in pursuit of a long-term durable solution to economic stagnation, in an attempt to save the European Union, so to orderly drive the process as opposed to end up being overwhelmed by the trending course of events."

Richard Koo: If Helicopter Money Succeeds, It Will Lead To 1,500% Inflation

"if businesses and households were to resume borrowing in earnest, the US money supply could balloon to 15 times its current size, sending inflation as high as 1,500%. The corresponding ratios are 28 times for Japan and Switzerland, five times for the eurozone, and 11 times for the UK. Once private-sector demand for loans recovers in these countries, confidence in the dollar, euro, and yen will plummet."

One Trader's Important Lesson From The Japanese Bond Market

The lessons I learned in Japan leave me comfortable with this outlook. Years of staring at low JGB yields certainly immunized me from the sticker shock associated with low Treasury yields... In Japan, with a negative yield on 10-year JGBs, investors are paying the government to borrow out to a 10-year term and spend. If the public sector ignores these types of messages on a global scale and private demand globally remains deficient, those same investors will accept still lower yields on government bonds outside of Japan – our base case for the rest of 2016.

Even "Flim-Flam Accounting" Can't Hide This Profitless Recession

If you think all this is a solid foundation for ever-higher profits, by all means go buy stocks with all four feet. But don't be surprised if the rest of the market disagrees at some point - for example, when even flim-flam accounting can't hide the fact that profits are in a free-fall back to "normal" levels 60% below current levels.

"There Is No Clear Way Out" - Richard Koo Says "The Price For QE Has Yet To Be Paid"

Recently, for example, the markets took a tumble when the Fed moved to normalize monetary policy. The US central bank responded by delaying the normalization process, which stabilized the markets, but eventually fears of falling behind the curve on inflation will force it to resume the process. That will lead to renewed market turmoil in a cycle that has the potential to repeat itself endlessly.

Stephen Roach: "Central Banking Has Lost Its Way, Is In Crisis"

In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. First came zero interest rates, then quantitative easing, and now negative interest rates – one futile attempt begetting another. Just as the first two gambits failed to gain meaningful economic traction in chronically weak recoveries, the shift to negative rates will only compound the risks of financial instability and set the stage for the next crisis.