Bank of America
The prospects of a rate hike by the Fed are looking increasingly shaky and downright laughable, not just because the start to 2015 for the US economy has been the worst in "negative surprises" terms since Lehman, or because the Atlanta Fed Q1 real-time GDP forecast is about to go negative (consensus originally expected this print to be 3.5% if not higher), but because the last time this happened, the Fed launched QE2. What is "this"? Bank of America explains.
Since Jeb Hensareling is opening a criminal probe into the Fed for leaking material, non-public information because Congress is “committed to holding the Federal Reserve accountable for its actions and omissions, and to ensuring transparency in its operations”, it is also time to finally hold none other than former Treasury Secretary and then-Fed Vice Chairman Tim Geithner criminally accountable for his actions.
As HFT shops begin to turn on each other, it seems appropriate to reflect on the impact that Michael Lewis' Flash Boys book had on exposing the ugly truth that many have been discussing for years in US (and international) equity (and non-equity) markets. As Lewis concludes, after explaining the attacks he has suffered from the HFT industry, "If I didn't do more to distinguish 'good' H.F.T. from 'bad' H.F.T., it was because I saw, early on, that there was no practical way for me or anyone else... to do it. ... The big banks and the exchanges [have] been paid to compromise investors’ interests while pretending to guard those interests. I was surprised more people weren’t angry with them."
Warren Buffett's “financial weapons of mass destruction” - how are you?
- As reported here first: The U.S. Has Too Much Oil and Nowhere to Put It (BBG)
- Dollar Drops From 12-Year High as S&P Futures, Bonds Gain (BBG); Dollar Bulls Retreat From 12-Year High to Euro With Fed in View (BBG)
- Clinton Private Email Plan Drew Concerns Early On (WSJ)
- ECB Bond Buying Not Needed With Economy Improving, Weidmann Says (BBG)
- China Feb new yuan loans well above forecast (Reuters)
- U.S. probing report Secret Service agents drove car into White House barrier (Reuters)
- Kerry tells Republicans: you cannot modify Iran-U.S. nuclear deal (Reuters)
- PBOC Pledges to Press on With Rate Liberalization Amid Slowdown (BBG)
- China Prepares Mergers for Big State-Owned Enterprises (WSJ)
As Ronald Reagan said, trust, but verify!
After all 31 banks passed Dodd-Frank's "stress"-test with flying colors and awaited The Fed's CCAR blessing to spread the wealth to shareholders, we thought ironic that The Fed's Tarullo had previously commented that "we don't want banks to know the stress-test scenarios and tailor their portfolios to meet our goals," because that would never happen. The CCAR results are now out and 28 of 31 passed. Deutsche Bank, Santander failed for "qualitative" reasons (with significant and widespreasd deficiencies in risk management) and Bank of America will need to resubmit their proposal.
In an attempt to secure some stability, i.e., funds, now that Venezuela is no longer able to tap Chinese bailout loans as last-recourse funding, Reuters reported that Venezuela's central bank is in talks with Wall Street banks to create a gold swap that would allow it to monetize some $1.5 billion of the metal held as international reserves, according to government sources familiar with the operation. Under the swap, the central bank would provide 1.4 million troy ounces in exchange for cash.
The captured corporate MSM is celebrating the six year anniversary of when the stock market bottomed in March 2009. They will spin a false narrative of Bernanke, Obama and Geithner saving the world with TARP, QE, and the $800 billion Porkulus bill. In fact, Bernanke and Geithner stopped the market from falling in March 2009 by threatening the accounting geeks at the FASB and forcing them to allow fraudulent reporting by the insolvent Wall Street banks. The crisis ended – precisely – on March 16, 2009, when the Financial Accounting Standards Board abandoned FAS 157 "mark-to-market" accounting, and Mark to fantasy was born.
Stick a fork in the now proven wrong theory that plunging gas prices would boost consumer spending. Why? Because 4 months after the full impact of tumbling gas price was said to become apparent, consumer spending is not only not picking up, it is in fact slowing down more, especially in those places where there was snow in the winter, and gasp, where oil price actually fell the most!
When stripping away the now traditional assumption fudges which have flooded every single data set and made virtually all the New Paranormal data meangingless due to its reliance on pre-Lehman crash demographic and labor participation assumptions, the reality is that not only is the American Dream now completely over, but that the American Nightmare has never been worse, because as BofA just calculated, the real US homeownership rate has never been lower!
- 5 Things to Watch in February’s Jobs Report (WSJ)
- Draghi Declares Victory for Bond-Buying Before It Starts (BBG)
- Apple Pay Sign-Ups Get Tougher as Banks Respond to Fraud (WSJ)
- As World’s Hottest Economy Unravels, Nigerians Feel the Squeeze (BBG)
- EU discontent over French budget deal's 'political bazaar' (Reuters)
- Foreign Takeovers See U.S. Losing Tax Revenue (WSJ)
- Goldman Shareholders’ Hope for Bigger Payout Dashed by Fed (BBG)
- Europe Stocks Headed for 31% Surge This Year Amid QE, Citi Says (BBG)
- Dollar revs up for jobs data, euro bonds rally on ECB (Reuters)
Financial systems that seem robust are more often than not inherently fragile - China is no exception!
Exactly 15 years ago today, who said it?
"You want winners? [This] is what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now. OK. Here goes. Write them down..."
Fifteen months later, Money magazine reported that [his] list had cratered 82%... Accountability ruins the game.
"The diversified hedge fund index was up 0.4% for the month of February, while the S&P 500 was up 6.0% on a price returns basis. CTAs unperformed the most in the month, down 1.9%, while Event Driven were up 2.4%."
- Bank of America