Bank of America
As Bank of America's FX quant strategist writes, "ahead of the Fed, the USD was already trending lower against 8 out of 9 G10 currency pairs with GBP being the only exception. The surprisingly-dovish Fed has only further accelerated the decline in the US dollar. The decline started in late January and has occurred during the critical local New York trading hours. The US hours downtrend looks likely to continue in the near future."
"Buyback blackout period starts Monday. An increasing number of S&P 500 companies will enter into their blackout period starting next week, about a month before the earnings season kicks into high gear in the third week of April." This is taking place as institutional clients have been aggressively dumping stocks for the past seven weeks, while corporations have been soaking up all this liquidating activity. Should the selling continue for yet another week, who will soak up the selling this time?
Collapsing Contango Means Tankers Full Of Oil Such As This One, Will Soon Have To Unload Their CargoSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/18/2016 15:28 -0400
“As we’ve seen both Brent and WTI climb above $40 we have also seen the contango collapse. If we rally too high the contango will collapse further and the storage economics reduce -- that could trigger storage in tanks to be reduced,” increasing supply and putting pressure back on crude prices.
In a note that may have been quite prescient, BofA's HY strategist Michael Contopoulos released a note last night titled "Fed acknowledges global growth concerns… again", in which he said that "we have to admit; today’s dovish comments by Yellen took us by surprise" and adds that "although the market’s initial reaction was positive, we think the longer run impact of a very dovish message is bad for risk assets. In fact, we’re a bit amazed by the initial response from high yield today."
If it sounds like history repeating itself, it most surely is. The coming recession will again obliterate the sell side hockey sticks, which this time started last spring at $135 per share for 2016 and are already being reduced at a lickety-split rate not seen since the fall of 2008. But this time there is one thing that decisively different, and it will make all the difference in the world. As will be reinforced once again by the post-meeting contretemps on Wednesday, the Fed has painted itself into a deathly corner and is utterly out of dry powder. It has nothing left but to hint at the prospect of negative interest rates. And that will be usher in its thundering demise.
The Biggest Threat To The S&P In The Next Month: "Only Buyer Keeping This Market Alive" Stops BuyingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/15/2016 15:45 -0400
The biggest danger to the S&P500 over the short-term has little to do with what Janet Yellen may say tomorrow, and everything to do with the marginal buyer of stocks being put into a state of forced hibernation
"Last week, during which the S&P 500 climbed 1.1%, BofAML clients were net sellers of US stocks for the seventh consecutive week. Net sales of $3.7bn were the largest since September and led by institutional clients where net sales by this group were the second-largest in our data history."
Over the past month, as expected, the CLO rout has gone from bad to worse, and according to the latest Morgan Stanley CLO tracker, as of the end of February, the median US CLO 2.0 equity NAV stood at -1.99 with the number of CLO 2.0 deals’ equity tranches currently having NAV below zero soaring by 30% from 348 to 453.
In a far less exuberant note than last week, Bloomberg's Lu Wang - author of the original article - writes that "while past deviations haven’t spelled doom for equities, the impact has rarely been as stark as in the last two months, when American shares lurched to the worst start to a year on record as companies stepped away from the market while reporting earnings. Those results raise another question about the sustainability of repurchases, as profits declined for a third straight quarter, the longest streak in six years."
"While investors focus on oil and the ECB, they overlook the largest current macro market risk – and opportunity – which centers on the Fed. Although our economists expect rates will remain unchanged, a credible argument can be made for the FOMC to proceed with the “flight path” it had previously outlined.... The market’s eventual acceptance of the Fed tightening path will spur some parts of the momentum trade to resume and others to unwind."
"Risk assets about to top: ultimately markets about "rates" and "earnings", little else; central banks have played “rates card” as aggressively as they can; ECB done, BoJ has nothing in the tank, and any US macro strength will elicit Fed rate hike expectations (the Fed wants to tighten); EPS momentum simply not strong enough near-term to overwhelm Q2 risks of Brexit, BoJ failure, US politics, China debt deflation."
The world financial system is booby-trapped with unprecedented anomalies, deformations and contradictions. It’s not remotely stable or safe at any speed, and most certainly not at the rate at which today’s robo-machines and fast money traders pivot, whirl, reverse and retrace. Indeed, every day there are new ructions in the casino that warn investors to get out of harm’s way with all deliberate speed. And last night’s eruption in the Japanese bond market was a doozy.
- Rivals rip Trump but promise support if he is the nominee (Reuters)
- Employment gains seen accelerating in February (Reuters)
- Brazil's Lula Targeted in Police Raid Into Corruption Scandal (BBG)
- Economist: For The ECB, It's No Longer About Oil (BBG)
- China's premier says economy faces greater difficulties in 2016 (Reuters)
- Copper Stockpiles in China Surge to Record as Metal Flows East (BBG)
There is an odd feeling of Deja QEu this morning, when with two hours to go until the February payrolls, global stocks are modestly higher, US equity futures are likewise slightly higher on the back of a weaker dollar (or perhaps stronger Euro following a Market News report according to which the ECB may disappoint, more on that shortly), but it is gold that is breaking out, and after entering a bull market yesterday when it rallied 20% from its December lows gold has continued to surge, rising as high as @1,274 in early trading a price last seen in January 2015.
Goldman plans to eliminate more than 5% of traders and salespeople in its fixed-income business, cutting deeper into those operations than an annual companywide cull that has already begun. Furthermore, according to a notice filed on the DOL's WARN website, Goldman announced that it would terminate 43 workers, with the layoffs set to occur between May 9, and July 1.