When BofA conducted its monthly Fund Managers' Survey, and asked what is the most likely bear market catalysts, the responses were as follows: "protectionism" = 34%, "higher rates" = 28%, "financial event" = 18%, "weaker EPS" = 15%. The "smart money" also said that the best protectionist investment is one: gold.
"A simple count of mentions of the word “better” relative to mentions of “worse” or “weaker” on earnings calls is tracking its highest in over two years. And the word “optimistic” has been used on a record 51% of the calls this quarter, the highest ever in our data history." - BofA
According to BofA, the best ways to hedge increased risks of a potential Eurosceptic win in the upcoming French election is favouring 10y peripheral spread wideners in Spain vs France, longs in 5y5y Germany and 5y Dutch sovereign CDS. In the options space, the banks recommends going long vol with a hybrid 6m10y strangle. In inflation, it likes 5y5y French CPI v HICP widener and a long 30y OATei breakeven vs inflation swap.
In December, Japan - the largest holder of Treasuries following China's recent sharp selloff - saw domestic investors dump their holdings of by the most since May 2013. “It was a deer in the headlights moment,” said Zoltan Pozsar, a research analyst at Credit Suisse, and it may be about to get much worse.
"There is quite significant uncertainty about what's actually going to happen, I don’t think anyone quite knows what’s going to come out of the process which involves both the administration and Congress in the deciding of fiscal policy and a variety of other things."
S&P futures rose further into record territory, European shares rose to within striking distance of their highest levels in more than a year while bonds fell and the dollar rose as investors cheered a surge in Chinese trade data amid hopes of "phenomenal" tax cuts by Donald Trump, all of which have rekindled the Trumpflation trade.
With the Trumpflation rally fizzling with every passing day, the only question asked by traders is "Is it time to sell the market?" According to Bank of America, the answer, at least for now, is no. Here are the seven rules and indicators Bank of America uses to make that determination.