Mr. Trump rather unfortunately may find that his chief task will not be the management of this Great Re-orientation, but more prosaically, fending off the headwinds which he will face as he hauls on the tiller of the economy. In short, there is a real prospect that his ambitious economic “remake” may well be prematurely punctured by financial crisis. These headwinds will not be of his making, and for the main part, represent the accumulation of an earlier monetary doctrine which will fetter the President-elect into a small corner from which any chosen exit will carry adverse implications.
OPEC agrees to cut 1 mm barrels: OPEC produces averages 33 mmbpd in 2017; WTI averages $59/bbl in 2019 OPEC again fails to reach an agreement:OPEC production averages 34 mmbpd in 2017, WTI drops to $40 then rebounds to $45 in 2017
After last week's victory by Donald Trump which unleashed the great Trumpflation rally, the not so low vol went off the charts, and "the shoe officially dropped" because as Bloomberg notes, the "Low Vol" iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol EAFE ETF saw a record one-day outflow on Wednesday.
According to BofA, the biggest tail risk is now a "stagflationary bond crash" - crowded longs (Minimum Volatility, US/EU credit, long EM debt) remain vulnerable to further jump in yields. In contrast, political rhetoric to calm “protectionism" fears (which jumped to highest levels since 2009) would boost risk appetite.
After taking a one day breather, the "Trumpflation Rally" returned with a vengeance as global government bonds tumbled and the dollar rose on renewed speculation the economic outlook is strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to hike in December (odds are now 94%). Asian shares rose, industrial metals and crude oil fell, European shares and US equity futures were pressured.
Following yesterday's bond rout - which continues today - global bond nvestors have suffered $337 billion in losses on their bond holdings in a single day Wednesday "as Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president sparked concern his plan to boost economic growth will lead to a surge in inflation."
The defendant was “so morally corrupted by pornography, drugs and alcohol, and a general life of debauchery with a huge salary to fund his depravity,” judge Stuart-Moore said. Jutting was considered “a high risk person” and “the repetition of the offence of murder is highly likely if he is given his liberty in the future,” he said.
Overnight, China reported that the PBOC’s FX reserves fell another US$46bn to US$3.121 trillion in October as the central banks struggled to offset the impact of accelerating capital outflows, triple the official September decline of US$19bn (recall that according to Goldman, the true FX outflow in recent months has been far greater), and the biggest drop since January. The October decline brought China's total reserves the lowest amount since 2011.
Global stocks, S&P futures, the Mexican peso, the Korean Won and crude oil all fell as traders were spooked by polls suggesting a tightening race and Trump momentum ahead of next week’s American presidential election. The yen and Swiss franc gained, as did global bond markets and gold as investors flocked to safe haven assets.
As BofA reports in its latest weekly client flow update, the bank's largest, institutional clients have now sold stocks for a record 21 consecutive weeks. The reason: soaring redemption requests as clients continue to shift out of active funds and into cheaper, passive options.
The most recent burst in bitcoin activity, which sent it surging by over $20 overnight, has little to do with any moves in the official Chinese currency, which recently rebounded modestly tracking the recent dip in the dollar, and is likely attributable to a long overdue crackdown on China's Wealth-management products, a key component of China’s "shadow banking" system.