Bank of America
"The rise in household savings rates amid so much central bank support is paradoxical to us, and mimics what we highlighted in the credit market earlier this year. Companies in Europe are deleveraging, not releveraging"
While we still haven't taken out the all time highs said squeeze would lead to - there are about 30 points to go there; but as the following chart below shows, with just two trading days left, October is on pace for the biggest monthly point jump in S&P500 hi
Sorry Fed, here is why your attempt at terminal reflation was doomed from day one.
"It could simply be 1998/99 all over again. After all, a “speculative blow-off” in asset prices is one logical conclusion to a world dominated by central bank liquidity, technological disruption & wealth inequality. What worked back then? What rose from the rubble of 1998? How would one position for one final melt-up on Wall Street..."
In reading various recent regulatory reports, it is clear that almost none of the promises that were made to the public about what was going to happen under Dodd-Frank financial reform is actually happening. Welcome to another day at the casino where the model continues to be — heads they win, tails you lose.
"On the current trajectory, we doubt the market can stay stable beyond a few quarters, especially if some SOE and/or LGFV bonds indeed default."
- Bank of America
The Morning After: Valeant Default Risk Soars After Called Next "Tyco", Sellside "Analysts" HumiliatedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/22/2015 09:08 -0500
As always happens after shocking events like yesterday which "nobody could have possibly predicted", watching the Penguin gallery reel in its humiliation is absolutely worth the price of admission.
This trade has become blood-soaked.
Back in February, we noted that NIRP had officially arrived in the US as JP Morgan announced it was preparing to charge some large institutional customers for deposits. This represented a kind of de facto (if not yet de jure) NIRP. Now, a combination of pinched margins and new regulations has led some of the largest financial institutions in the US to penalize corporate and institutional deposits on the way to instituting what amounts to a stealth version of negative interest rates.
The US has seen that movie before, it's not a happy ending. Oh, and enjoy that AAA credit rating while it lasts.
"The only way to get velocity to pick up in a benign way is to write off the debt by a meaningful amount. That would have helped in the 2008 global financial crisis if more losses had been imposed on creditors. But that obviously did not happen in 2008 as the policymakers demonstrated that they did not believe in capitalism. Otherwise, the only other way velocity picks up is by an unhealthy hyperinflationary surge reflecting a loss of confidence in central banks, an outcome that becomes more plausible the more extreme the resort to quantitative easing."
One year ago we reported that companies were using secured bank debt to repurchase stock: a stunning, foolhardy development. It so unbelievable we promptly forgot this bizarre tangent into "use of loan funds"... Until today when we found that it was, indeed, all a lie and that the banks themselves had become complicit in perpetuating not only the worst possible capital misallocation, but being an accessory to the US stagnation, soon to be replaced with full-blown recession.
Aside from Chinese monetary data, it was a relatively quiet session in which traders were focusing on every move in the suddenly tumbling USD, and parsing every phrase by central bankers around the globe, as well as the previously noted piece by Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath which effectively ended the debate whether there will be rate hikes in 2015. Adding to the overnight froth were ECB speakers first Ewald Nowotny and then Spain's Restoy, who said that euro-area core inflation "clearly" below goal, remarks which were immediately assumed to signal increasing pressure to boost stimulus, and which promptly translated into even more weakness in EUR and equity strength, pushing US futures up about 15 points from yesterday's close.
News That Matters
If we, and Bloomberg, are correct, and if the CFD unwind has only just started impacting the true supply/demand dynamics, and thus price, of copper, then we are only 30% of the way through the unwind of China's copper "carry trade" and thus the 'over-capacity' concerns are massively under-appreciated.