The market was waiting for the DOJ to announce the long-awaited settlement with Deutsche Bank today. Instead, it got news of a surprise lawsuit filed by the DOJ which sued Barclays after failing to settle a long-running probe into the UK bank's involvement in pre-crisis mortgage fraud.
It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.
The "Trump Trade" continued with global equity funds receiving $21 billion in inflows in the past week according to Bank of America, as investors rushed into reflation assets, while money flowed out of bonds for seventh week in a row. For one more week news for the "active managed" community was negative: of the $20.7 billion in equity inflows, $31 billion was in the form of ETFs, which meant another $10 billion in outflows from mutual funds and other active vehicles.
The recent appreciation in financials is apparently a response to the new administration’s planned policies that are generally viewed as beneficial for the financial sector. Given the regulatory oppression of the past eight years, this may very well be a sound reason to own bank stocks. However, the R2K index is trading at grossly elevated levels. Owning the index for anything other than pure speculative trading is ridiculous. Owning the index for its bank exposure is insane.
Defying consensus, JPM found retail spending activity trends "worsened post the election contrary to stock market moves and color from some management teams" when analyzing satellite image car counts at parking lots. It finds that this is "interesting as it is counter to prevailing thought."
As part of the Deutsche Bank silver rigging settlement, the bank has provided "smoking gun" evidence and transcripts which show traders coordinating trades in advance of a daily phone call, manipulating the spot market for silver, conspiring to fix the spread on silver offered to customers and using illegal strategies to rig prices.
Today's dramatic meltup in stocks has left many speechless, and just as many asking just how overvalued the market is at this moment. Here, for all those still interested in fundamentals, is the answer broken down in 20 different valuation metrics.
With the Italian referendum now in the rearview mirror, the market's attention focuses on this Thursday's second most important event, the ECB meeting on Thursday. Here are the key questions the market will want answered.