Bank of America
Curious how the third largest energy deal, and 14th largest corporate take over in history, happened? The answer, courtesy of Reuters, is simple: all it took was a phone call.
- Israel, U.S. Lawmakers Press Case Against Iran Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
- Rand Paul tries to broaden libertarian appeal (Reuters)
- Fewer Oil Trains Ply America’s Rails (WSJ)
- Chicago voters go to polls in first ever mayoral runoff (Reuters)
- FedEx to buy TNT to expand Europe deliveries (Reuters)
- Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash (BBG)
- In Surprise Move, Australia Holds Rates (WSJ)
- Oil falls as Iran, China discuss more supply (Reuters)
When an economic crisis is coming, there are usually certain indicators that appear in advance...
Barron’s should have published its gushing cover story on Jamie Dimon’s stewardship of JPMorgan today – as an April Fool’s joke.
Having already proven that their institutions are above the law in the aftermath of the financial crisis, executives at the “Too Big to Fail and Jail” banks have decided it’s time to teach Senate Democrats a lesson. Not being content with trillions in taxpayer backed bailouts to protect and further consolidate virtually all wealth within their oligarch fiefdoms, these bankers are irate at the notion that a commoner would dare criticize their unassailable crony privilege. What Wall Street wants is one hundred Chucky Schumers in the Senate.
The Cop Is On the Take
"Now a legal quirk could bring a surreal ending to... foreclosure cases around the country: [borrowers] may get to keep their homes without ever having to pay another dime."
Regarding the major problem of the more domestic issue of economic recovery, unless we would agree, which we really shouldn’t, that making a small group of the population richer while the much larger rest is made poorer, is how we define ‘recovery’, we have no recovery. But it is still accepted and proclaimed like a gospel: our economies are in recovery. If you take a step back and watch things from a distance, it’s truly too silly to be true, but endless repetition of the same lines, be they true or not, has them accepted as being cast in stone. It’s like selling detergent. Of course it doesn’t hurt that people very much want to believe a recovery is here. The stories we are bombarded with 24/7 under the quite hilarious misnomer ‘News’ have been prepared, pre-cooked and pre-chewed for our smooth and painless digestion, and as such they contain only tiny little flakes of reality. They are designed to make us feel good, not understand the world around us. And, as Scott Minerd says, the economic future for your entire families will look utterly bleak. Because that recovery they talk about? It’s not for you.
- “Bubbles in credit” has jumped as the biggest concern (30%), having been third on the list in January’s survey,
- “Supply” has risen to be the second biggest concern (19%),
- “Geopolitical conflict” is the third biggest concern (14%), but this is down from being the top concern in January’s survey,
- "Deflation in Europe" (the second biggest concern two months ago), is now down in 7th place (just 3%).
Finally The "Very Serious People" Get It: QE Will "Permanently Impair Living Standards For Generations To Come"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2015 23:18 -0400
"In the long run classical economics would tell us that the pricing distortions created by the current global regimes of QE will lead to a suboptimal allocation of capital and investment, which will result in lower output and lower standards of living over time. In fact, although U.S. equity prices are setting record highs, real median household incomes are 9 percent lower than 1999 highs. The report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch plainly supports the conclusion that QE and the associated currency depreciation is not leading to higher global output. The cost of QE is greater than the income lost to savers and investors. The long-term consequence of the new monetary orthodoxy is likely to permanently impair living standards for generations to come while creating a false illusion of reviving prosperity."
Default Risk Soars After Ukraine's 'American' FinMin Suggests Severe Haircuts For Creditors (Including Russia)Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/27/2015 08:18 -0400
Ukraine’s American Finance Minister has announced a broad restructuring plan with a wide range of severe haircuts for creditors, and she – well, obviously – wishes to include Russia in the group of creditors who are about to get their heads shaved. Russia sees the world as one in which multiple major powers can govern together. The US sees Russia as a power that must be defeated by any means necessary, and subdued. One of these worldviews must prevail in the end. Perhaps we won’t know which one that will be until the third power, China, raises its voice. What we do know is that Russia will back down only so far, and then it will no more.
Spending cuts for oil-directed drilling have dominated first quarter 2015 energy news but rig counts for shale gas drilling are too high. Investors should pay attention to this growing problem. Bank of America fears sub-$2 gas prices now that winter heating worries are over. Low natural gas prices affect the economics for gas-rich oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale and Permian basin plays as well as for the shale gas plays. Meanwhile, an orgy of over-production is taking place in the Marcellus Shale... Investors should carefully examine why shale gas players have not reduced rig counts more. Continued drilling in the Marcellus will crush natural gas prices further.
As the chart below shows, there very dramatic, and very glaring discrepancy between what BofA started experiencing one year ago (when we first noted it) when it comes to loan creation, and what the Fed represents every Friday in its weekly H.8 statement, has never been greater!
"Proactive central banks figure this out early and fight the inevitable slowdown by implementing QE and weaker currencies. They grab the other guy’s pizza slice. Their asset markets soar. As Figure 5 shows, 70% of the world’s developed markets have inflation below 0.5% – almost as high as the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. So the USD8.6tn in central bank balance sheet expansion (from the Fed, ECB, BOE, BoJ, and PBoC, which amounts to 130% growth over Dec-07 to now) has been unable to get inflation going." - Bank of America
Following Friday's manic quad-witching melt-up in oil (and everything else), the exuberance (surprise surprise) is fading as fundamental reality is slapped back onto the face of the energy complex by Saudi Arabia. As Reuters reports, Saudi oil minister Ali al Naimi also said the kingdom was now pumping a record high 10 million barrels per day (bpd), and would only cut if non-OPEC countries cut production. The 'supply' weakness in crude has been tempered somewhat by a tumbling USD (EUR surging) for now (and also by news from Sinopec of major capex cuts).