Bank of England

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Frontrunning: February 8





  • European stocks plunge as Lunar New Year offers no cheer (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Fall, Credit Weakens as Signs of Distress Abound (BBG)
  • Management trouble at world's biggest hedge fund: Bridgewater succession plan in flux as heir Greg Jensen steps back (FT)
  • U.S. athletes should consider not attending Olympics if fear Zika - officials (Reuters)
  • Geithner Gets JPMorgan Credit Line to Invest With Warburg Pincus (BBG)
  • Top Clinton Donor Wants a Law Against $1 Million Gifts Like His (BBG)
 
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Crunch Time?





It seems monetary policy is exhausted and the next exogenous lever to pull would be political fiscal initiatives. If/when they fail to stimulate demand, there would be only one avenue left – currency devaluation. If/when confidence in the mightiest currency wanes, we would expect the US dollar to be devalued too - not against other fiat currencies, but against a relatively scarce Fed asset.

 
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"A Key Technical Indicator Just Rang The Bell On The Cyclical Bull Market"





"If one is looking for key technical indicators to ring the bell on the cyclical bull market- maybe it has just rung loud and clear. A renminbi devaluation will only sever an already badly frayed safety rope..."

 
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Even With the Market Rolling Over, This Is What Bears Are Worried About





With faith in "growth" faltering and the momo leaders rolling over, there are still worries for the bears in the intermediate term...

 
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Frontrunning: February 5





  • January Jobs Report Closely Watched for Momentum, Wages (WSJ)
  • Oil prices steady, weak fundamentals weigh after volatile week (Reuters)
  • How Much Global Oil Output Halted Due to Low Prices? Just 0.1% (BBG)
  • Congress Tweet 'Unfortunate,' Lawyer Says as Shkreli Goes Online (BBG)
  • Syrians Flee Aleppo to Escape Damascus Offensive Against Rebels (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2009 Before Jobs Data (BBG)
 
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Futures Unchanged, Global Stock Algos Anemic Ahead Of U.S. Payrolls Report





US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.

 
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Frontrunning: February 4





  • EU Slashes 2016 Inflation Forecast to 0.5% as Growth Seen Slower (BBG)
  • Bank of England cuts UK growth forecasts (FT)
  • Investors Cast Wary Eye on Fed Rate Increases (WSJ)
  • U.N. halts Syria talks as government closes in on Aleppo (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse Drops as Investment Bank Slump Deepens Losses (BBG)
  • Six OPEC states ready for emergency meeting with non-OPEC members — Venezuela's minister (TASS)
 
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Futures Flat As Dollar Weakness Persists, Crude Rally Fizzles





After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.

 
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Hedge Funds Fight The PBOC: There Can Be Only Yuan





With every Tom, Dick, and Harry hedge fund manager now taking on The People's Bank of China (in various ways), it is no surprise that the spread between offshore Yuan and onshore Yuan blew out to its widest in 3 weeks this morning. They are not getting it all their way for now though.

 
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The Coming Revaluation Of Gold





The discipline of gold as Reserves backing currency at a revalued price will restore order to a world that has refused to adopt the necessary discipline until forced to do so in the desperate situation now evolving, where there will be no other alternative but to accept the detested fiscal and financial discipline imposed by gold.

 
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"This Is Much Larger Than Subprime" - Here Are The Legendary Hedge Funds Fighting The Chinese Central Bank





Who are the brave souls who have decided to very openly fight the People's Bank of China? Here is a sample: Soros, Bass, Ackman, Druckenmiller, Tepper, Schreiber, Einhorn, Scogging, and Carlyle, Nexus and many more.

 
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Helicopter Money Arrives: Switzerland To Hand Out $2500 Monthly To All Citizens





With Citi's chief economist proclaiming "only helicopter money can save the world now," and the Bank of England pre-empting paradropping money concerns, it appears that Australia's largest investment bank's forecast that money-drops were 12-18 months away was too conservative. While The Finns consider a "basic monthly income" for the entire population, Swiss residents are to vote on a countrywide referendum about a radical plan to pay every single adult a guaranteed income of around $2500 per month, with authorities insisting that people will still want to find a job.

 
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