Bank of England

Dollar Tumbles, Euro Soars After Obamacare Repeal Dies; China Intervenes To Halt Rout

The Bloomberg Dollar Index tumbled to a fresh 10-month low after two more Republican defections on Monday night doomed the proposed GOP healthcare plan in the Senate. And while Treasuries rose on concerns about inflationary pressures and the viability of the Trump stimulus agenda, S&P futures rebounded gingerly from session lows, and were up 0.1%

John Mauldin Warns "Prepare For Turbulence"

"I’d love to be wrong. Nothing would make me happier than having to eat all these words. But without significant changes, and soon, the economy will drift sideways and down... Any outside shock – and several may be in the offing – could push us into recession."

"It's Going To Be A Long Summer" One Trader Warns No One, Not Even The Fed, Believe Their Own Forecasts

It was fun while it lasted. For a few brief months, The Fed appeared to 'hawkish, no matter what' as data-dependent morphed into data-ignorant. Markets relished the confidence-inpiring message from the ivory tower academics... but, as former FX trader Rich Breslow notes, none of that occurred in reality and now, "no one really believes even their own forecasts," adding that, as markets wake up to this reality, "it's going to be a long summer."

Frontrunning: July 13

  • Feuding U.S. Senate Republicans to get revised healthcare bill (Reuters)
  • Draghi May Address Future of ECB Stimulus at Jackson Hole (WSJ)
  • BOJ seeks to tamp down speculation on tapering (Nikkei)
  • Iran’s Stature Grows as Rivals Quarrel (WSJ)
  • China June Trade Data Buoyed by Robust Demand at Home and Abroad (BBG)

Bill Blain: The Trump Fiasco Will Keep Yellen From Doing "Anything Extraordinary" Today

"The Trump Jump now look increasingly unachievable ahead of the next electoral cycle in 2018. No doubt markets will quickly shrug it off. However, the pressure on markets and gridlock on Washington spending plans is probably enough to keep the Fed from doing anything extraordinary – Yellen gives here bi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony later today." - Bill Blain

All Eyes On Yellen As Dollar Slumps On Trump Revelations, Stocks Rebound

The dollar was broadly weaker after dovish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard amid reverberations from reports of Donald Trump Jr.’s contact with a Russian lawyer; European equities rebounded with oil while S&P futures were 0.2% higher at 2,428 as traders eagerly await Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony for further clues on the trajectory of monetary policy while the Bank of Canada is expected to hike rates later.

Frontrunning: July 11

  • Trump Looks to Wall Street for Fed Bank Regulator (WSJ)
  • Rates play prods dollar to four-month high versus yen, kiwi dollar falls (Reuters)
  • Kaspersky Lab Has Been Working With Russian Intelligence (BBG)
  • Buffett’s Berkshire Moves Away From Stock Picking (WSJ)
  • OPEC's Barkindo says all producers should help balance market (Reuters)

"It's Too Late" - 7 Signs Australia Can't Avoid Economic Apocalypse

"Millions of ordinary, financially unprepared, Australians are now at the mercy of the international markets and foreign policy makers... Unfortunately, the window for taking pre-emptive action with an orderly unwinding of structural macroeconomic imbalances has now closed..."