Bank of England

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China Imported At Least 217 Tonnes Of Gold In December As London Dumped Precious Metals





When there is no more gold left in London to export the gold price is likely to go higher on strong global demand induced by economic headwind.

 
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Frontrunning: February 16





  • Oil eases off highs after output freeze agreement (Reuters)
  • Saudis and Russia agree to oil output freeze, Iran still an obstacle (Reuters)
  • China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)
  • Obama starts work to pick Supreme Court justice amid political 'bluster' (Reuters)
  • The Never-Ending Story: Europe’s Banks Face a Frightening Future (BBG)
  • Apollo Global to buy security services company ADT for $7 billion (Reuters)
 
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Through The Looking Glass On Rates





Negative interest rates act effectively as a hidden tax funneled directly to banks. They are inherently unhealthy. Currently, they could indicate also a measure of unease among two of the four most powerful central banks. If so, that could well escalate.

 
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Frontrunning: February 11





  • Gold Roars to One-Year High as Turmoil Drives Safe Haven Demand (BBG)
  • Banking Stocks Pummeled in Europe (WSJ)
  • Dollar, stocks plunge sparks scramble for safety (Reuters)
  • Nymex Crude Slips Below $27 a Barrel (WSJ)
  • No Respite for S&P 500 as U.S. Stock Futures Join Global Selloff (BBG)
 
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"Negative Rates Are Dangerous" OECD Chair Warns "Our Entire System Is Unstable"





"There is excessive debt everywhere and negative interest rates are dangerous... My number one fear? That’s the same as asking me where it will start. When you view the economy as a complex, adaptive system, like many other systems, one of the clear findings from the literature is that the trigger doesn’t matter; it’s the system that’s unstable. And I think our system is unstable... Central Bank models are just wrong"

 
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JPM's Striking Forecast: ECB Could Cut Rates To -4.5%; BOJ To -3.45%; Fed To -1.3%





JPM estimates that if the ECB just focused on reserves equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product it could slice the rate it charges on bank deposits to minus 4.5%. In Japan, JPM calculates that the BOJ could go as low as -3.45% while Sweden’s is likely -3.27%. Finally, if and when the Fed joins the monetary twilight race, it could cut to -1.3% and the Bank of England to -2.69%.

 
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Frontrunning: February 8





  • European stocks plunge as Lunar New Year offers no cheer (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Fall, Credit Weakens as Signs of Distress Abound (BBG)
  • Management trouble at world's biggest hedge fund: Bridgewater succession plan in flux as heir Greg Jensen steps back (FT)
  • U.S. athletes should consider not attending Olympics if fear Zika - officials (Reuters)
  • Geithner Gets JPMorgan Credit Line to Invest With Warburg Pincus (BBG)
  • Top Clinton Donor Wants a Law Against $1 Million Gifts Like His (BBG)
 
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Crunch Time?





It seems monetary policy is exhausted and the next exogenous lever to pull would be political fiscal initiatives. If/when they fail to stimulate demand, there would be only one avenue left – currency devaluation. If/when confidence in the mightiest currency wanes, we would expect the US dollar to be devalued too - not against other fiat currencies, but against a relatively scarce Fed asset.

 
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"A Key Technical Indicator Just Rang The Bell On The Cyclical Bull Market"





"If one is looking for key technical indicators to ring the bell on the cyclical bull market- maybe it has just rung loud and clear. A renminbi devaluation will only sever an already badly frayed safety rope..."

 
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Even With the Market Rolling Over, This Is What Bears Are Worried About





With faith in "growth" faltering and the momo leaders rolling over, there are still worries for the bears in the intermediate term...

 
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