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2016 Past is 2017 Prologue

We believe that many of the themes and risks of 2016 continue in 2017 and that they are likely to impact markets in the coming months - especially the precious metal markets

Party Like The Dow Is 19,999: US Futures Dip As Global Currencies Stumble; Oil Down, Gold Up

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards.

Trump To Meet With UK Prime Minister, As May Denies Her Brexit Plans Are "Muddled"

While Trump has yet engage the social network on Sunday, in his last tweet on Saturday evening, President-elect Donald Trump said he would will meet with U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May in the spring as the British leader seeks to rejuvenate ties with the US after a frosty start to their relationship and expand the UK's relationship with the U.S. after her country withdraws from the European Union.

Frontrunning: January 6

  • December Jobs Data to Wrap Up Obama’s Economic Legacy (WSJ)
  • FBI Says Democrats Refused Access to Hacked E-Mail Servers (BBG)
  • As Trump attacks, Nissan at bigger risk than Toyota (Reuters)
  • Democratic leader Schumer emerges as Trump's newest punching bag (Reuters)
  • PBoC raises renminbi’s daily fix by most since 2005 (FT)
  • China central bank urges rational investment in bitcoin (Reuters)

Fiat Money, Fiat News

Gresham’s Law: bad money drives good money out of circulation.

Hunt’s Law: fake news drives real news out of circulation.

Nomi Prins' Political-Financial Road Map For 2017

Today, the only thing keeping a lid on financial calamity is epic amounts of artisanal money. Deregulating an inherently corrupt and coddled banking industry, already floating on said capital assistance, would inevitably cause another crisis during Trump’s first term.

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events..."

Central Bankers Are Losing Faith In Their Own Alchemy

"The idea that paper money could replace intrinsically valuable gold and precious metals... was both revolutionary and immensely seductive. It was in fact financial alchemy - the creation of extraordinary financial powers that defy reality and common sense. Pursuit of this monetary elixir has brought a series of economic disasters - from hyperinflation to banking collapses."

Frontrunning: December 28

  • Crude Rally Lifts Commodity Currencies; Bonds Rise: Markets Wrap (BBG)
  • Kerry Plans Middle East Speech as Israel Moves to Ease Tension (BBG)
  • Japan Looks to Smooth Over Past as New Threats Arise (WSJ)
  • Israel backs off East Jerusalem settlements (Reuters)
  • House Flipping Makes Comeback as Home Prices Rise (WSJ)

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Frontrunning: December 23

  • Berlin market attack suspect killed in Italy (Reuters)
  • Tunisian Suspect Had a History of Criminal Activity, Extremism (WSJ)
  • Hijacked Libyan plane lands in Malta with 118 on board (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse Settle U.S. Probes as Barclays Sued (BBG)
  • Italy Sets Up Fund to Help Troubled Banks (WSJ)