Bank of England

Frontrunning: November 4

  • Stocks Extend Pre-Vote Selloff as Treasuries Gain; Lira Weakens (BBG)
  • Fears over US election spur investors’ dash for cash (FT)
  • Republican Voters Rallying to Trump Leave Party Leaders in Awkward Spot (BBG)
  • Trump gains ground on Clinton: Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton take 3-point lead in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll results (ABC)

Global Stocks Drop; Futures Hints At Longest Losing Streak Since December 1980

With yesterday's, 8th consecutive decline for the S&P 500, the US equity market has now posted the longest losing streak since October 2008; and should we close payrolls Friday day with another negative print, it would be the longest negative streak since December 1980. Putting the recent slide in context, stocks are now down compared to a year ago, and are unchanged since December 2014.

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged, Drops Guidance To Further Rate Cuts, GBP Jumps

In a widely expected announcement, the Bank of England kept it bank rate unchanged at 0.25%, as well as holding it government bond purchases at £435bn and corporate bond purchases at up to £10bn. Among the notable highlights in the report, the BOE said that "monetary policy can respond, in either direction, to changes to the economic outlook", which appears to have pushed sterling higher.

Frontrunning: November 3

  • Cubs Win 1st Series Title Since 1908, Beat Indians in Game 7 (BBG)
  • Trump, Clinton blast each other on character; Clinton rises in poll (Reuters)
  • Trump-effect grips world stocks, dollar (BBG)
  • No Brexit without Parliament approval: High Court (Reuters)
  • With Iraqi troops at Mosul's gate, Baghdadi promises victory (Reuters)
  • China Slowdown Deepens Looming Pension Crisis (WSJ)

US Futures Flat, Rebound From Session Lows On Rising Election Jitters

Asian stocks, S&P futures and European shares trade flat as a tightening race for the U.S. presidency spurs demand for haven assets including the yen while weighing on stocks and Mexico’s peso. A turbulent overnight session saw some early risk off following the plunge in Facebook shares and the Fox News report that an FBI probe into the Clinton foundation may lead to a "likely indictment."

Crispin Odey Sees 80% Crash In UK Stocks With Recession, Inflation "Inevitable"

"The FTSE 100 share index is now up 30% over five years, whilst earnings have fallen by 80%. On an earnings yield of 1.6%, the stock market could fall by 80% and, provided profits did not fall, would be on a 13x P/E multiple. The Bank of England is proud that they have engineered such a pleasant result but there is now increasing evidence that this is unsustainable."

Frontrunning: November 1

  • There is a bubble in articles about China's bubbles: Asset Bubbles Threaten China’s Economy (WSJ)
  • Hillary Clinton’s Wall Street Fundraising Benefited From Loophole In Federal Anti-Corruption Rule (IBT)
  • Clinton and Trump Prepare for Possibility of Election Overtime (BBG)
  • Trump Leads Clinton by 1 Point in New Poll as Enthusiasm Declines (ABC)
  • Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia (NYT)

Mark Carney Announces He Will Remain At The Bank of England Until June 2019

“I would be honoured to extend my time of service as Governor for an additional year to the end of June 2019. By taking my term in office beyond the expected period of the Article 50 process, this should help contribute to securing an orderly transition to the UK's new relationship with Europe.

Frontrunning: October 31

  • FBI in Internal Feud Over Clinton Probe (WSJ)
  • As Clinton struggles, Trump tries to raise doubts (Reuters)
  • Dollar shakes off Clinton FBI scare, global stocks stay spooked (Reuters)
  • Mark Carney stands ready to serve 8-year term at Bank of England (FT)
  • Clinton Team Questions FBI Director’s Motive (WSJ)
  • OPEC Splits Prevent Deal With Other Producers to Curb Supply (BBG)

BOE's Carney May Announce Decision To Step Down This Week

According to several British newspaper, including The Times and Mail Online, Mark Carney’s "self-imposed deadline" for declaring whether he will stay in office beyond 2018 is fast approaching, and the central banker may decide to step down as soon as next week. The 51-year old Canadian may announce his decision "within days" at his next scheduled public appearance on Thursday.

Bank of England Asks UK Banks To Detail Their Exposure To Deutsche And Italian Banks

In what may or may not be a coincidence, just hours after Bloomberg reported that DB launched a probe into whether it "misstated" derivatives, moments ago the FT reported that the Bank of England is seeking details from large British banks on their current exposure to Deutsche Bank and some of the biggest Italian banks, including Monte dei Paschi, "amid mounting market jitters over the health of Europe’s financial sector."