Bank of England

Increasing concerns over deflation will limit any QE tapering in the second-half and set the stage for bonds to outperform stocks once again. 

After two decades of serial bubble-blowing, the world’s central bankers have maneuvered themselves into a corner. They created a monster in the form of an unbalanced global economy and a bloated financial system, laden with debt, addicted to cheap money, and in need of constantly rising asset prices. Now the monster is in charge and the central bankers dare not stop feeding it.

Brief discussion of the price action that is lifting the dollar at expense of nearly every other currency.  

Our reality has changed in the last twenty-four hours. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank have re-affirmed their old positions since the Fed has changed tacks. It may well be, as Europe is in much worse financial condition than the United States, that there is a policy reason for the European positions but it may well also be a calculated move to devalue the major European currencies. Whatever the actual reasons, the European statements have certainly sounded the trumpet that the “Currency Wars” have reignited.  It is a dangerous game when the world’s central banks that have been working for the last five years in unison and now they head down different paths.

• Egypt Girds for Muslim Brotherhood Protests (WSJ)
• SAC Capital's Steven Cohen Expected to Avoid Criminal Charges (WSJ)
• SAC insider-trading probe could last years (Reuters)
• RBI seen selling dollars around 60.59 levels: dealers (Reuters)
• China signals will cut off credit to rebalance economy (Reuters)
• Egypt army arrests key Muslim Brotherhood figures (BBC)
• Rise in Steel Prices Alarms Buyers (WSJ)
• Draghi-Carney Seek Independence Day Break From Bernanke (BBG)
• Samsung Warns Results Will Miss Forecasts (WSJ)
• Russia Prosecutor Seeks 6 Years in Jail for Putin Critic Navalny (BBG)

While we all eagerly await for the final 80 pips in EURUSD to trickle down before Stolper's latest "long EURUSD" masterpiece is stop lossed out in under a week and precisely in line with expectations, here comes Goldman with its latest fade reco, this time in the form of a "Top Trade for 2013" (supposedly this means an epic muppet steamrolling instead of just the occasional Kermit speed bump), namely to go long UK equities (the FTSE 100 Dec 13 futures) with a target of 7100 and a stop loss below 5950 (or 6% lower). If Stolper is any guide, this should be the easiest 6% imaginable. Of course, the hypocrisy of Goldman upgrading the UK market following its tentacle being appointed to run UK monetary policy, and the Bank Of England, with the sole purpose of boosting the UK "wealth effect" (and Goldman bonuses), does not escape us...

Since 1694 and the ensuing three centuries’ of Bank of England history, the base rate has never been this low (see chart). Draghi, emulated his fellow Goldman Sachs banker, Carney and kept rates at 0.5%. Ultra loose monetary policies involving record low base rates have been in place in the UK since March 2009, a lengthy 4½ years. In the Eurozone 0.5% record low rates have been seen since May this year. 

While it was not surprising that the BOE did nothing to change its rate or QE program, it was surprising (to some) that in the first official statement following the appointment of Goldman's Mark Carney as head of the Bank of England, the bank did mention that forward guidance and intermediate thresholds would likely be considered at the August assessment. Which, of course, is code for expect a major change in monetary policy. And now we also know the date, meaning that some time in August Goldman's latest central bank head will proceed doing what Goldman central bank heads do best: crush currencies in order to boost nominal, not real, returns and ensure another record Goldman bonus pool.

As southern Europe buckles under the weight of unserviceable debt and 60%+ youth unemployment rates, Germany is coasting along with an almost historically low unemployment rate; the disparity between Germany and its southern neighbors could not be more obvious. So it is ironic that Angela Merkel is leading the public pledge to ‘tackle’ the continent’s job crisis. Of course, European policy to deal with the jobs crisis is quite simple: print more money. Their latest initiative, a few billion more to fight the youth unemployment rate, was mercilessly eviscerated yesterday in the European Parliament by Nigel Farage... one of the few voices of reason left on the continent.

Focus on US, Europe, Japan

• Portuguese bond yields soar amid political turmoil (FT)
• Portugal Resignation Rocks European Markets (WSJ)
• Portugal, Greece risk reawakening euro zone beast (Reuters)
• Egypt’s military chiefs hold crisis meeting as Mursi snubs ultimatum (Al Arabiya)
• Egypt Crisis Deepens as Mursi Refuses to Step Down (BBG)
• Hidden microphone found in London embassy: Ecuador (AFP)
• Health Law Penalties Delayed (WSJ)
• Rise in mortgage rates cut into homebuyer demand last week (Reuters)
• Bolivia angered by search of president's plane, no sign of Snowden (Reuters)
• Olympus ex-chairman gets suspended sentence (FT)

Tell Angela Merkel that the guy that warned of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers AND Anglo Irish of which she laments, is also warning of Anglo Irish Bank among other Irish institutions - all funded by Germans through Irish austerity!

The volatility of recent weeks is but a mere small taste of the volatility in store for all markets in the coming months and years. The global debt crisis is likely to continue for the rest of the decade as politicians and central bankers have merely delayed the day of reckoning. They have ensured that when the day of reckoning comes it will be even more painful and costly then it would have been previously.

As we wave goodbye to Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, his successor, Mark Carney hasn’t even had the time to let the seat go cold at the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street.

Back in April 2012 we first suggested - to loud jeers by the "pundits" who were convinced there is no chance in hell of it happening - that Goldman's take over of the world's central bank triumvirate: the NY Fed (Bill Dudley), the ECB (Mario Draghi) and the Bank of England, would soon be completed with Mark Carney taking over the world's oldest central bank located on Threadneedle street. Today, this process has concluded and we have photographic evidence. Behold Goldman's Mark Carney attending his first Monetary Policy briefing (observe Michael Cross, Head of Foreign Exchange, and Executive Director for Markets, of Fleecebook fame sitting on the lower left).