While normal poll results have been delayed on Friday as the Brexit campaign takes a day off following Jo Cox's death, moments ago JPM broke the polling embargo and as Reuters reports, JPMorgan said on Friday it saw a lead for the "Out" campaign in Britain's European Union referendum, based on an analysis of opinion polls. "Our attempt to clean up the polls for methodological issues suggests a lead for leave in the 3-5 percent range at the time of writing," researchers said in a note.
The febrile behavior of financial markets ahead of the United Kingdom’s referendum on June 23 on whether to remain in the European Union shows that the outcome will influence economic and political conditions around the world far more profoundly than Britain’s roughly 2.4% share of global GDP might suggest. There are three reasons for this outsize impact...
Following the tragic murder of Jo Cox, Brexit campaigning was suspended for a second day on Friday. Events planned by the two main campaign groups were canceled, while publication of opinion polls and an International Monetary Fund report were delayed until the weekend as tributes were paid to Cox. As Reuters adds, the murder "has thrown a June 23 referendum on European Union membership into limbo."
Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, as U.S. equities are on track to extend losses for a sixth day. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell to a four-month low, sliding 1% for its sixth decline in seven days, and U.S. crude retreated for a sixth day in the longest losing streak since February. Bond yields sank to records in Germany, Australia after Japan as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said next week’s U.K. vote on European Union membership was a factor in the decision to hold interest rates steady. The Yen surged more than 2% as the Bank of Japan refrained from adding any new stimulus,
The problems that UK banks will encounter would be twofold: they would potentially lose access to European markets; and the next wave of concern would be presumably a weaker pound accompanied by higher interest rates - the latter hurting those who are already highly indebted. With Brexit odds at an all-time high, here is a succinct overview of the banks that would be the most affected should the UK vote to leave.
US equity index futures and global stocks rebounded for the first time in 6 days, ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks, while Chinese manipulation prevented a selloff in Chinese stocks when MSCI refused to add the country to its EM index due to fears about... manipulation. Sterling has rebounded despite ongoing Brexit doom and gloom. Oil is the only key commodity that has failed to stage a modest rebound, while gold is down alongside the dollar, just because.
The European Central Bank would publicly pledge to backstop financial markets in tandem with the Bank of England should Britain vote to leave the European Union, officials with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. "there will be a statement to do whatever it takes to maintain adequate market liquidity."
The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the 'leave' campaign ahead. As a result of the continued global scramble for safety, German 10Y bunds finally dropped below 0% for the first time ever, while global risk assets are red around the globe.