Bank of England
- Fed Poised to Mark the End of an Era (Hilsenrath)
- Fed opens meeting to put an end to crisis era policy (Reuters)
- Fed's Historic Liftoff and Everything After: Decision Day Guide (BBG)
- Emerging Markets Gird for Fed Rate Increase (WSJ)
- What 7 Years at Zero Rates Have Looked Like (BBG)
- 5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting (WSJ)
The day has come when the boxed-in Fed has no choice: with the vast majority of the market expecting a rate hike, Yellen has to deliver or suffer a crushing confidence blow like no other. And deliver she will, with expectations that said hike will be "as dovish as possible." For now however, the market is desperate to convince itself that just as more easing and more QE were bullish for the market, so rate hikes are just as bullish. Recall from late 2013: "tapering is not tightening," then the 2015 version of this refrain is "tightening is not tightening."
Because when your year-end bonus depends on you not seeing it coming, you don't.
- Watch video - “Monetary insanity” of ECB and Fed is “frightening”
- “Absolutely nothing has been learned” since financial crisis
- “Financial hypocrisy on a grand scale”
- Ireland was vassal of Bank of England and now ECB
- Ireland needs to get “financial and monetary independence”
- Huge demand for gold and yet prices manipulated lower
- Real unemployment is U.S. probably 15-20%
- Dollar may rally in short term but vulnerable in long term
- Russia, China may monetise gold as geopolitical weapon
- Gold and silver are “hedges for you in local currency terms”
While the world patiently waits for Janet Yellen to raise interest rates this month, the markets have been unable to decide as of yet whether such an event is good or bad thing.
We have been almost alone in our exclamations at the collapsing offshore Yuan in the last few days but since The IMF blessed China's currency with inclusion in The SDR, CNH is down 13 handles. However, now we appear to have an answer. Overnight saw commentary from CFETS (China's FX market 'manager') that indicated implicitly that Trade-Weighted Yuan was still trading too high.
Gold is one of the few investments that every investor should have in their portfolio. We are now at the dangerous end-game period of a very bold but very reckless & disappointing experiment with the world's fiat (unbacked) currencies. If this experiment fails -- and we observe it's in the process of failing -- gold will provide one of the best forms of wealth insurance. But like all insurance products, it only works if you buy it before you need to rely on it.
In a recent survey not a single major central bank could provide an example of an accurate “a priori” recession forecast. The silence from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BOE, BOJ and the Bank of Canada is deafening.
PREVIEW: BoE December Rate Decision & Minutes Release 1200GMT/0600CST
• All surveyed analysts expect the Bank of England to keep monetary policy unchanged, with the bank rate at 0.5% and the Asset Purchase Facility at GBP 375bln
• Headline UK CPI printed at -0.1% for October, still well below the BoE’s mandated 2% target
Confidence in central bankers is now hanging by a thread. Mario Draghi (and his fellow Goldman Sachs alum Mark Carney at the Bank of England, for that matter) might want to adopt a little humility before that thread snaps completely. It is always tragic when we filthy peasants stop banging rocks together momentarily to listen to the awe-inspiring intellects at the central banks, only to misunderstand them. Perhaps the real problem is one of overconfidence. Not our overconfidence. Theirs.
RANsquawk Week Ahead Video - Central Banks remain in focus with several rate decisions on the slate this week alongside US data ahead of next weeks FOMC meetingSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 12/07/2015 13:46 -0400
- Obama in speech to nation vows to defeat 'new phase' of terrorist threat (Reuters)
- Clinton Urges Social-Media Intelligence Sharing in Terror Fight (WSJ)
- Obama urges tech, law enforcement to address social media used for plots (Reuters)
- NATO says won't send ground troops to fight IS (Reuters)
- Le Pen Scores Historic Victory in France's Regional Elections (BBG)
Over the last few months, in a prime example of currency failure and euro-defenders' narratives, Finland has been sliding deeper into depression. Almost 7 years into the the current global expansion, Finland's GDP is 6pc below its previous peak. As The Telegraph reports, this is a deeper and more protracted slump than the post-Soviet crash of the early 1990s, or the Great Depression of the 1930s. And so, having tried it all, Finnish authorities are preparing to unleash "helicopter money" to save their nation by giving every citizen a tax-free payout of around $900 each month!
When at first you don't succeed (having failed in their bid to draw physical gold from the 'cold, dead' hands of Indian citizens), find another group to exploit. As is standard operating procedure with government, if voluntarism fails, use coercion...